How Good Do You Think These Dallas Stars Are, Right Now?

Rankings are silly, but then, so are we

When Glen Gulutzan’s hiring was announced, all of the comparisons between this and his former term in Dallas began in earnest. “Bankruptcy” was the first word you’d hear, and rightly so. “Salary cap floor” was the second, and also the third and fourth, on account of its being a phrase made up of three words, hashtag math.

But we don’t watch hockey for semantic reasons. We watch it because it’s beautiful, and because it’s tense, dramatic stuff, equal parts heart-pounding and heartbreaking. And with the Stars poised to either capitalize on the momentum of the last few years or to take what will surely be perceived as a step back if they don’t win two rounds, the tension around the team feels pretty palpable, from my keyboard in the middle of July, at least.

So as much as the Stars are likely to take us all on a roller coaster ride for 82 games, as most teams tend to do, I wanted to re-calibrate just a bit. How good is this team, relative to the teams they’re trying to beat?

Sure, we all know the risks in this lineup right now: Chris Tanev still refuses to re-materialize in Dallas, and even if he did, he might wind up becoming a left winger just to fill that gaping hole of the second line for Dallas right now.

But all told, this team is basically right where you would want a team to be when you add a superstar like Mikko Rantanen to it:

• They have a lot of players on the right side of 30, including most of their best ones.

• They have Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell headlining a blue line in front of Jake Oettinger—all four players being ones any NHL GM would acquire in a heartbeat, given the chance.

• Also, Mikko Rantanen.

• They have young talent with high upside like Mavrik Bourque and Lian Bichsel.

• At forward, they have established NHL talent like Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston.

• Also, Mikko Rantanen

• They have veteran leadership that has demonstrated the willingness to take reduced roles when it helps the team, with Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin.

• Also…well, you know.

Yes, Jim Nill has kind of ruined the grade curve by stacking the lineup with 20-goal fourth-liners like Evgenii Dadonov in recent years, as well as adding Mikael Granlund to the playoff lineup, just because. Trading away Mason Marchment means the Stars lost two of their most common left wingers in the playoffs, and it feels like it.

Additionally, the defense has some questions for Nils Lundkvist and company to answer, and the forward group may not be quite as deep as they’ve been in the past, with Radek Faksa in his thirties looking like a role player rather than an up-and-comer with some upside. It is going to be a different team, in many ways.

But this is really important: all the biggest pieces are still there. I can’t stress this enough: Even if you don’t like the exact makeup of the team compared to prior years, the Stars’ foundation is really, really good. Especially when you compare it to the other teams in the West.

So, let’s get to that big question today: how does their foundation compare to the teams they’ll be trying to defeat most often, this year?

Where Would You Rank the Stars in the West?

We could try to place the Stars somewhere in the entire NHL, but that would require talking about the Eastern Conference. Our biases¹ are well-documented at this point, so you know we’re not wasting time trying to decide just how much better the Stars are than, like, the Washington Capitals or whatever.

If things break perfectly, Dallas will have the privilege of eliminating just one Eastern Conference team in the playoffs, and I dont’ think a single squad in the league right now really feels that they’re better than Florida.

So, as far as the East goes, I think it’s safe to say the Stars rank somewhere below Florida, because everyone does. Or at least, they do now. Because the Panthers finished with just 98 points last year—just one ahead of the Ottawa Senators. And I think we can say the Stars look comfortably better than the Ottawa Senators.

Some of you will already be scared by that admission, because your fear says all the flaws in this roster will result in disaster, and any bit of confidence is a risk. For my part, I’m willing to concede that, yes, this group doesn’t seem like they’re quite ready to take care of the defending champs—who finished last year one point ahead of a team the Stars would be fortunate to face in the playoffs at any point.

Make of that what you will. The regular season really is just about qualifying for the dance, though, and I just can’t find it within myself to worry overmuch about the Stars’ chances of doing so for the fifth straight year.

Let’s take a quick look at the top eight teams in the West last year:

2024-25 Western Conference Playoff Teams

Winnipeg is sporting a Connor Hellebuyck who just came off the best season of his career, only for the Stars to break his heart in six games. Truly, having elite goaltending covers a multitude of sins. But the Jets also lost Nikolaj Ehlers this offseason, and they tied with Tampa Bay for the highest PDO² in the NHL last season. The goaltending could well sustain that, given Hellebuyck’s skills; the shooting and power play will likely fall off a bit.

It’s funny to be on this side of things, though. The Jets looked like the one team Dallas absolutely did not want to face in the NHL, along with Colorado. They ended up getting them both in the first two rounds, dispatching them in the exact same amount of games as they did Minnesota and Seattle back in 2023. Truly, the playoffs are another animal.

Anyway, I think it’s fair to say Winnipeg is still a very good team, but I don’t see them continuing last year’s all-timer of a run, because who can? Besides, Dallas knocked them out despite Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen not being big factors for much of the series, so it would be easy to put Dallas above them, for those reasons.

But man, I still can’t forget just how utterly unstoppable the Jets looked for long stretches all season. I have to think the St. Louis series shook them a bit, and Dallas benefited from that trauma (as well as Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund’s singlehandedly winning two games). Everyone is back down at the foot of the mountain again this year, so yeah: Winnipeg still looks like the team to beat in the Central, even without Ehlers. Prove me wrong, kids.

Vegas, though? Well, adding Mitch Marner is like adding a player even better than the one Winnipeg lost. The Golden Knights were even more defensively stingy than the Jets last year, while generating more underlying offense, to boot.

Then the Oilers dispatched them with shocking ease. And shortly after that, we learned that Alex Pietrangelo’s career is on hold, if not done with altogether. And as much as acquiring Mitch Marner was a coup for the Golden Knights, I’m not sure any team would say their fortunes would improve by trading a number one defenseman as important as Pietrangelo for a top-line winger—even an elite one like Marner.

Underneath that, Vegas also lost Nicolases Hague and Roy, and it looks like they’ll be dipping into LTIR right off the bat just to get under the salary cap, further limiting their options. I don’t think everyone³ is appreciating just how tenuous this year feels for Vegas; they’re a year older with no flexibility (though with Vegas, they always find ways to do what they need to do) and league-average goaltending that didn’t look itself in the playoffs.

Yes, they’re starting from an incredible spot, but then, so were the New York Rangers going into last year. Would it shock anyone if Vegas struggled this year—especially if they got hit with an injury or two to their decidedly not-young core?

Vegas had one of the best underlying offenses of any team in the league, but it feels like they’ve lost more than they’ve gained, even if everyone else stays healthy, and all their other blueliners scale up the lineup without losing a step—big ifs, I would say. So, I’m comfortable putting Dallas about even with Vegas right now, all told, and we’ll say that Jake Oettinger gives them a slight edge.

Edmonton, of course, looms large, having twice bounced Dallas without facing an elimination game in the process. The Oilers may have finished the season five points back of Dallas, but it only took them five games to erase any fond memories in Dallas of the prior 82 games and change, and they did so with ease.

The Oilers have yet to address their goaltending, but other than losing John Klingberg and Corey Perry—who played fairly sheltered minutes—they’re running back a lot of the same guys who let a nuclear-powered offense to their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final. They also added Andrew Mangiapane, whose name is exceedingly fun to say, and who is also pretty good.

The Stars will be banking on Glen Gulutzan’s trade secrets to balance out the matchup, but I really can’t see Edmonton going back to the playoffs without promising Connor McDavid that they have a goaltending plan that doesn’t revolve around Stuart Skinner. Will Edmonton trade like five draft picks to Pittsburgh to get Artūrs Šilovs at some point this year? Yes, if they feel like it. And once that hole is shored up, the Oilers should look every bit like the team that Dallas has to prove they can handle. Right now, the Stars haven’t proven that.

Here’s the thing, though: after that, I think you’d have to say the Stars have a better roster than every other team in the Conference, on paper.

The Kings would have been the next threat to surpass them, but I don’t think anyone is really a massive fan of their moves a couple weeks ago, where Mikey Anderson and Brandt Clarke are the only defensemen left in their main lineup on the right side of 30—and with a 40-year-old Corey Perry added to the forward group. And if Darcy Kuemper regresses even a tad in net, the Kings could genuinely be in trouble.

Still, there’s a fantastic foundation there, and the Pacific has been an easier division to face than the Central in recent years. But at the very least, I have a hard time seeing the Kings as more fearsome than last year, at this point.

St. Louis seems like another team primed to build off last year’s momentum, unless they trade Jordan Kyrou, like rumors were suggesting a little while ago, before they didn’t. There’s a lot of good on that team, but I have trouble seeing the great without some heavy squinting. Plus, Radek Faksa knows all their secrets now. Checkmate, suckers.

Oh right, Colorado. The team that won the Cup a few years ago, and who was about to eliminate Dallas in seven games when half the state went to the fridge to get a celebratory beverage early in the third period after that Nathan MacKinnon insurance goal, only to suddenly hear a quiet, Finnish chuckle from somewhere on the other bench. I can’t recall what happened next, but I think it might have been fun.

Well, the Avalanche re-signed Brock Nelson to what looks like a pretty big overpay of a deal, and then they decided to make Nelson (who will be 34 in October) feel young again by signing Brent Burns, who will be 41 years old before the playoffs start.

Martin Nečas also sounds like he might not want to stay in Colorado, so we’ll see if Colorado handles that situation with all the tact and foresight they usually show with their impending free-agent wingers. They also extended Josh Manson a year early, for some reason, so I guess they’re pretty sure of themselves when it comes to his ability to stay healthy and effective.

Also, the Colorado Avalanche lost some guy named Mikko Rantanen. Not sure where he wound up, but given that they decided to give up on one of the best playoff performers in the NHL, I think they might take a step back this year. Maybe two steps, if their hastily assembled goaltending plan from last year starts showing its warts.

Lastly, the Minnesota Wild are in the Central Division, once again. Let’s give a round of applause to the Minnesota Wild for being in the Central Division. Great accomplishment by them, which will only be surpassed by the $15 million they’ll be paying Kirill Kaprizov for the next eight years after this one. So it’s really 120 million great accomplishments, when you think about it.

The Wild have a good core, and I’d even go so far as to say they could have a Jets-like miracle season, if Filip Gustavsson spends the entire season with his eyeballs turned completely white and Vladimir Tarasenko looks even half like the name you’re paying for. But in the Central, they look like a team that will hang around and play in the playoffs, for at least a round. Prove me wrong, ki- oh right, we did that already.

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Look, it’s fine to be pessimistic about the Stars, if you want. Many things could go wrong, as they do for some teams every year! But even if they underperform, I just can’t see them slipping much past fifth or sixth in the West this year, barring disasters better left unspoken.

Stack them up against all the other teams in the Conference, and you see that almost every other team has its own issues and risks, many of of which are just as big as Dallas’s, or even bigger.

But, don’t take my word for it: You tell me. Where do you see Dallas finishing in the West this year? Maybe I’m wrong, and you’ll all be able to use this piece to mock me for years to come. If so, get started right now.

Where do you see the Stars finishing in the West this year, with the roster as it stands right now?

1. If you pronounced this with a long “E,” you did it wrong.

2. A combination of shooting percentage and team save percentage.

3. Not you, dear reader. Everyone else, I mean.