Why the Dallas Stars Probably Aren’t a Fit for Jacob Trouba
With the announcement of Tyler Seguin’s surgery earlier this week, the Dallas Stars were always going to be one of the first names to pop up in any trade rumors. After all, any time you have a player with a $9.85 million cap hit ready to be put on LTIR, it’s natural to speculate about which available player will trigger that move.
This morning, a big name (if only that) was brought up as being on the verge of leaving New York, with or without his consent: Jacob Trouba.
If it's not a trade for Trouba, believe he may be on waivers later today — possibility that a team will have a claim ready to go as with Goodrow back in June.Either way, looks like Jacob Trouba's #NYR tenure is over.
— Arthur Staple (@artstape.bsky.social) 2024-12-06T14:30:41.475Z
The short version of the long story is that Trouba has a modified no-trade clause in his contract. Elliotte Friedman is reporting that Columbus is one team that the Rangers could trade Trouba to, but only if Trouba waives his no-trade clause to let the deal go through.
So now, from what I can tell from what’s out there already, Rangers’ GM Chris Drury is apparently threatening to put Trouba on waivers if he continues to block the currently proposed trade(s). It’s a fun little staring contest. It’s possible that Trouba’s camp has allowed this news to leak out in hopes of pressuring Drury not to lose Trouba without getting an asset in return. Putting Trouba on waivers would mean a team like San Jose could do what Columbus did with Dante Fabbro when Nashville waived him (and Fabbro has looked much improved since being claimed by Columbus, indeed).
For Drury’s part, he might be betting that just getting Trouba out of town at this point will be a win for two reasons: One, he’d be getting the cap space back to use elsewhere. And two, he’d be showing that he’s a GM who follows through on his word, backing up news from a few days ago that both Trouba and Chris Kreider had been made clear to be available for other GMs to propose trades for.
Of course, Trouba is a physical, right-handed defenseman with a reputation for being, well, Jacob Trouba. That means the Stars, who have lacked a reliable top-pairing, right-handed defenseman since the decline and departure of John Klingberg, might seem like a potential trade partner for the Rangers.
For my part, I don’t see a fit there. Even if you do the thing fans love to do and pick the pieces you’re most okay with moving off your roster and offer them in trade for the asset you want, it’s hard to see how it’s a net benefit to the Stars.
First, there’s the contract. Even if you could get Trouba on waivers for nothing (which would mean two dozen worse teams, including Columbus, would have to pass on him), he has an $8 million cap hit for this and next season. That means you’d be using almost all of Seguin’s cap hit this year (and a huge chunk of space next year) to acquire a defenseman who the reigning President’s Trophy winners can’t wait to get rid of. It would also mean the Stars would have to stop accruing cap space immediately, rather than continuing to acquire it for another couple dozen games. It’s hard to see the wisdom in such a move.
Second, there’s the little matter of Trouba being, well, not particularly good anymore.
Jacob Trouba (reportedly on waivers today) has been playing at a third-pair level for the past three seasons.
In other words, Trouba—whom some fans would surely propose trading a player like Matt Dumba for—would basically be the same risk as a player like Dumba, but with over twice the cap hit. And really, it’s hard to see how that solves any problems with this lineup when it comes to finding a reliable partner for Miro Heiskanen.
New York has tried Trouba for multiple games this year on a pairing with Zac Jones, Braden Schneider, K’Andre Miller, and Ryan Lindgren. Last year, Trouba spent the entire year with Miller, and his numbers didn’t really look any better for having that consistency. He’s playing 20 minutes a night, and getting largely out-chanced in those minutes. He takes a ton of penalty minutes, is always toeing the line of being suspended, and he doesn’t score or help with puck transition in a meaningful way.
Really, this profile is not dissimilar to what the Stars thought they were getting with Dumba over the summer. And right now, it’s hard to see Jim Nill literally doubling down on that approach.
And finally, what would the Stars even trade for Trouba? If teams like Columbus are making offers as well, then they’re surely offering something more than a veteran defenseman who’s been healthy scratched a few times already. Could Dallas really beat other teams’ offers without using assets they would be better off saving until closer to the trade deadline, when more players will be available? It’s hard to see that being the case, especially if Drury is trying to make a trade that sees him perceived as the winner in this scenario.
But then, Nill is always good about keeping things under wraps until they happen, so we’ll have to wait and see how it all shakes out. It wouldn’t surprise me if Nill had talked with Drury just to gauge the price, but it would surprise me if the Stars end up getting the opportunity to pay it. Especially because it might end up costing them much more than face value.