Why Not All Losing Streaks Are Created Equal

(But they all kinda stink)

The good news for Dallas is that Mikko Rantanen will return to the lineup this weekend, when they play Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday.

The bad news for Dallas—because this season is never just good news—is that Sam Steel won’t be there. He flew back to Dallas today after pulling up with an injury last night on Long Island, and he won’t return for any of the Stars’ last three games on their current road trip.

“It's probably a hip flexor or something, or a groin,” Gulutzan told Mike Heika after practice on Friday. “We'll see how bad it was. It wasn't as bad this morning as we maybe thought yesterday, which was a good sign.”

However long Steel is out, it’s just the latest injury blow for a Stars team that has dealt with a ton of them this year. And with the team having gone four games without a win, losing bodies is the last thing they need right now.

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It’s crazy to be talking so somberly about a team with 97 points through 72 games, but the last few games have been a rough chaser to the intoxicating midwinter run they put up. These Stars went 13-0-1, only to turn around and go seven games in a row (and counting) without a regulation win.

Here’s an exercise for you: Go look at the Stars’ games on Natural Stat Trick, and look at their night-to-night xGF% from late January to mid-March, which sat consistently around 55-65%.

Now, look at their last five games.

Natural Stat Trick / Woof

That’s a team constantly losing battles at 5-on-5, and the defensive structure has cratered as a result. And if you want a season-long perspective, Hockey Viz has you covered there, too: