The Winding Roads of Mavrik Bourque, Matt Dumba, Nils Lundkvist, and Lian Bichsel

At an optional morning skate today, Dallas Stars Head Coach Pete DeBoer confirmed the there would be only marginal lineup changes from the group that trounced Pittsburgh 7-1 on Monday. That group notably did not include Matt Dumba, who was signed this summer to a two-year deal at $3.75 million per season.

That meant the only change would be in the forward group, where Oskar Bäck would draw in, and Mavrik Bourque would come out. Said DeBoer on Bourque: “It’s not anything he’s done wrong. He’s a young guy finding his way, and he’s getting a little bit better every night. He got behind early in camp, and he’s catching back up again.”

DeBoer was referencing Bourque’s injury toward the end of the preseason, when Bourque ended up missing a couple of weeks before finally re-joining the Stars for game action a little ways into the regular season. At the time, things were complicated because Wyatt Johnston was also starting slow due to his own injury recovery. And with Jason Robertson also dealing with missing prep time due to a cyst removal late in the summer, the Stars never really got into a rhythm with the lines I think they always wanted to have: Namely, Robertson-Hintz-Johnston, and Benn-Bourque-Stankoven.

Because of Bourque’s absence, Stankoven was moved up to the top line so that Johnston could come down and center the third line with Jamie Benn. And even though Bourque did finally get a couple of games at center on the third line, the coaching staff has moved him down to center the fourth line in recent games, with a healthy scratch or two along the way.

Here’s the especially interesting quote DeBoer had today when talking about Bourque: “But like all young players, you’ve got to find a way to separate yourself so you’re not in that conversation when we have to make these decisions.” And, much as Bourque is still a great bet to be a very good player for the Dallas Stars for a while, I think it’s a fair point. He has to show that he deserves to get the minutes scorers get before they’ll move other, more veteran players around to accommodate him.

When Mike Heika followed up to ask about what makes Bourque’s path different from Logan Stankoven, DeBoer had this to say:

“Yeah, those are special situations. Logan, Wyatt Johnston…the more likely path for young guys is, you know, what Nils Lundkvist went through, what [Mavrik Bourque] has gone through, what [Matt] Poitras has gone through in Boston, what Thomas Harley’s gone through. That’s probably more normal, is dealing with some adversity early until you find a way to make yourself an everyday player.”

-Pete Deboer, November 14, 2024

I think it’s pretty telling that coaches aren’t still talking about the slow start to the season, but about how it’s now Bourque’s responsibility to “separate” himself from the pack of other players in the conversation for healthy scratches. The easy argument is to say that Bourque hasn’t really had a chance to play in a more creative role lately, but this coaching staff pretty clearly doesn’t see Bourque providing more value to the team as a third-line center than Wyatt Johnston does, or at least more value than the tradeoff of moving Johnston up to the wing next to Roope Hintz would provide.

And Bourque on the right wing would need to be better than basically Evgenii Dadonov (as Logan Stankoven and Tyler Seguin are both having very hot starts), but so far, Dadonov has been better. Or at least, the results have been better. True, Dadonov has created more scoring chances playing in the top nine, but the results have also been much better with him out there, whether he’s involved in the scoring or not.

In fact, Bourque has the lowest PDO on the entire team. At 5-on-5, Bourque has been on the ice for over 100 minutes, during which the Stars have scored two goals and given up six. Bourque only has one goal and one assist in those minutes (and the goal itself was a pretty greasy one, to put it mildly). That means he’s tied with Brendan Smith in points despite having played four more games than the veteran defenseman.

And with the Stars as a team having struggled to score up to their standards, it’s little wonder that the coaching staff has decided to let him force his way into the top-nine conversation by creating more offense, rather than handing those minutes to him when he’s not demanding them. Right now, nothing is free.

With that said, I wouldn’t worry about Bourque’s development this year for a couple of reasons. First, because in a long season, players will miss games, and that will give Bourque an organic opportunity to move up the lineup, as we’ve even seen him play on the Duchene line already. And the next time the Stars play back-to-back nights, it wouldn’t shock me to see Bourque move up into Seguin’s spot to give the veteran a night off, given what DeBoer has said about Seguin managing something all year that flares up when he plays two games in two nights.

The other reason not to worry right now is because Bourque’s defensive game is extremely solid. As DeBoer said today, Bourque hasn’t been making mistakes. This isn’t a reckless player cheating for offense, but rather a player who could create offense at an elite level in the AHL now finding things a little tougher when it comes to NHL scoring (as has most of the team, to be fair). As the tide begins to turn, I think Bourque’s natural ability will be given ample opportunity to show itself. This scratch, much like the Nils Lundkvist scratch in Florida, doesn’t feel like an indictment of his play so much as an indication of where he is on the hierarchy when short-term changes have to be made. But I’d expect to continue to see Bourque in the lineup more often than note.

Also, Oskar Bäck played well against Boston in the Stars’ last contest, so there’ no harm in giving him another shot. It’s nice when your 13th forward is still a reliable one.

***

Speaking of the Lundkvist scratch, I had a good conversation with the Stars defenseman this morning about how defensemen have to create offense in today’s NHL. Lundkvist is invariably one of the first players on the ice at morning skates (and at practices, come to that), where he frequently works on point shots and deflections with Tyler Seguin, who is always the first player on the ice when he’s playing.

In our chat today, Lundkvist mentioned that he’s been trying to work on shooting for his teammate’s sticks more often, unless it’s a “shoot to score” situation, like with a one-timer. Lundkvist talked about how you have to shoot a puck hard along the ice for a tip upwards, whereas you shoot and aim differently when you know you’ll need a deflection. Essentially, you’re aiming for your teammate’s stick (or where it is going to be), as opposed to aiming for a corner of the net when you’re trying to beat a goalie straight up. They’re different types of shots, not just shooting at the net every time, and hoping for a tip sometimes.

It’s no surprise that Lundkvist is working on creating a bit more offense, as that’s something even DeBoer mentioned a little while back he’d like to see more of. But the good news for Lundkvist is that he’s pretty clearly worked his way into a more consistent spot on the blue line than he has in years past with this coaching staff, even if he might have to take the occasional healthy scratch. And the biggest evidence of Lundkvist’s greater trust from his coaches might be the fact that Matt Dumba is being healthy scratched for the second game in a row.

Dumba’s mistake against Winnipeg was a bad one, and we’ve all discussed it plenty. And even a veteran scratch isn’t unheard-of, as Stars fans in years past have seen players like Dan Hamhuis or even John Klingberg sit for a game when a coach thought they needed a “reset” of some kind. Even veteran players need a breather now and then, and particularly on new teams, so it wasn’t absolutely shocking when Dumba was scratched (though I was surprised, to be honest).

But to be scratched for a second game in a row isn’t a “reset.” Instead, I see that as a pretty clear indicator of who the Stars’ coaches think their best six defensemen are (and aren’t) right now. This is not common, particularly for a veteran player signed to a multi-year free-agent deal, and it’s worth talking about.

To give the player his due, Dumba skated late both at practice on Wednesday and during morning skate today (Thursday), and all indications are that he’s not sulking or anything like that, but rather working harder than ever. Dumba even had a moment today where he and Lundkvist were laughing about something together on the ice, if you care to read into such things. Everything I’ve seen and heard regarding Dumba has been positive over the past few days.

So, it’s entirely likely that Dumba will patiently sit, then draw back in for Brendan Smith after the Stars have a less-stellar game than they did against Pittsburgh. His ceiling is certainly high enough to be in the primary group—there’s a reason he was put next to Miro Heiskanen to start the year, after all—but lately, his floor has been too low for the coaches to ignore. That’s a rough thing for any veteran, but the Stars’ slower start (by their standards) means that they have been making pragmatic decisions, and that’s how you have to coach in the NHL if you want to win hockey games.

I wouldn’t write off Dumba just yet, of course. It’s only been 10 games or so for him, and history suggests he can be useful in the right role. But so far, he hasn’t found that role, and like Bourque, the coaching staff clearly isn’t going to keep handing him minutes if he’s not using them the way they need him to.

For the record, this reflects positively on the character of everyone involved, I think. Stars fans should be happy that the coaches aren’t afraid to scratch veterans along with promising rookies, and they should be even happier that Stars management is aligned with the coaches enough to allow them to make those decisions, even if they might not reflect well on the signing itself.

And the players involved have all seemed, from everything I can glean, to be responding with the right attitudes and work ethic when they aren’t picked for the game lineup. That’s really all you can ask when everything isn’t perfect on the ice.

***

Naturally, though, the first sign of imperfection from the defense has led to questions about Lian Bichsel’s path to the NHL. That’s also a very good thing, because it means that the Stars actually have a viable long-term option to bolster their defense corps, even if he’s not a right-handed one.

But I wouldn’t get too eager for Bichsel to show up just yet. In fact, I checked with Stars management this week about Bichsel’s progress and they confirmed that Bichsel is doing exactly what he needs to do for the Texas Stars in the AHL, and they’re pleased with his progress. It doesn’t sound like he’s on the cusp of a recall or anything (though one never knows for sure when it comes to high-level prospects—after all, Sean Shapiro mentioned last spring that Bichsel was actually told to prepare to make his NHL Debut against Edmonton if Chris Tanev was unable to play), but I do think Bichsel is exactly where the organization wants him to be right now.

I don’t see the Stars breaking glass in case of emergency during the first half of the regular season if they keep winning at a 9-5-0 pace, but if Bichsel keeps looking solid, I still think he could be on track to follow in Thomas Harley’s footsteps and bolster the Stars’ blue line before this year’s hopeful playoff run. Of course, Bichsel himself chose his own path last year, leaving to go back to Europe despite the team probably wishing he would have stayed in Texas. And I’ll be particularly interested to see how he progress in Cedar Park this year, as I’m planning to head down and see him play in person before too long. But as of now, if Bichsel keeps doing the right things, I’d expect the Stars to get him up to Dallas before the end of the season. Especially if their blue line continues to look a bit unsettled, as it has so far this year.

On that front, I’m hard-pressed to see Miro Heiskanen sticking with Esa Lindell long-term, though it’s an interesting-enough pairing that I’m intrigued to see how they dealt with better teams than Pittsburgh. But DeBoer did say today that he loves how well the two players complement each other in being dynamic and reliable at high levels. And whether it’s Harley or Lindell pairing up with Heiskanen, a double-lefty pairing also means there would be more room for a lefty like Bichsel to step into the lineup.

For instance, how intriguing is the idea of Lian Bichsel paired with Ilya Lyubushkin? I can’t imagine opposing forwards would exactly be licking their lips to go up against those two players. That would allow Nils Lundkvist to play on a slightly more offensive pairing with whichever of Lindell or Harley doesn’t play with Heiskanen, and that’s a defensive group that suddenly begins to look pretty good even without a trade deadline addition.

But right now, the Stars seem likely to roll with the seven defensemen they have, in one combination or another. And that means they’ll continue to hope that Matt Dumba, like Mavrik Bourque, forces his way back into the lineup by playing at a higher level. Because the team is always better when players force coaches to keep them in the lineup rather than the other way around.