The Most Likely Offseason Plan(s) for Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars

On October 12th last year, the Dallas Stars opened their season with a shootout victory over the St. Louis Blues, as you may have heard. Their roster included 22 players, with a spare forward and Joel Hanley.

On October 13th of 2022, the Dallas Stars opened their season with a victory over the Nashville Predators. Their roster included 22 players, with a spare forward and Joel Hanley.

So, when it comes to hazarding a guess about how the Stars will open the season this year, you’ll forgive me for presuming they’ll stick with 22 players (continuing to forgo the full 23 to accrue cap space). They no longer have Joel Hanley or Ty Dellandrea (the most common 13th forward last year), so we’ll see what we can divine about what changes await the Stars.

Roster Overview

Some players are likely to slip down the lineup, with Radek Faksa a prime candidate to eat more healthy scratches this year. Nils Lundkvist can’t really slip much farther than he’s done already, but I suppose that’s what we thought last summer, too. Sam Steel hits restricted free agency, and all indications are that the Stars are highly motivated to bring him back. The defense is trickier, with only three players having contracts for next year (Heiskanen, Suter, and Lindell). Harley and Lundkvist are restricted free agents, with Harley likely to command a healthy bridge deal, I’d guess. Lian Bichsel seems likely to win a job out of camp, but don’t put it past the Stars to give him some extra AHL seasoning if he doesn’t look NHL-ready at the outset.

Some players hitting unrestricted free agency are noteworthy:

Alex Petrovic
Derrick Pouliot
Jani Hakanpää
Chris Tanev
Craig Smith
Joe Pavelski
Matt Duchene
Scott Wedgewood

Per the lame duck CapFriendly, Dallas has just north of $16 million in cap space to work with. How will they spend it? Well, let’s see if we can take a crack at figuring that out.

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Goaltending

Not much to parse here. Scott Wedgewood is a free agent, and I’m not sure Matt Murray has quite convinced the Stars to throw him the keys to the NHL backup role. So I’d expect either Wedgewood or a similar veteran to be brought back again, likely on a two-year deal to keep the average salary a bit lower. As the Stars found out this year when Oettinger went down for a month in the winter, having a reliable backup can be the difference between keeping momentum going or a season flying off the rails.

If you want to spitball about what amazing NHL backup goalie you’d most want, I guess now is the time to do it. For my part, Mike Smith and Johan Hedberg were the most fun Stars backups to watch, for different reasons. If someone can equal or better their work in Dallas, then more power to them.

The Forwards

Presuming Sam Steel is re-signed (as I’m sure he will) and Mavrik Bourque makes the team out of camp (as he almost certainly will), the Stars have 11 NHL forwards for next year. That’s partly why you’re hearing William Carrier talk (which talk also suggests that the Stars aren’t eager to bring back a 35-year-old Craig Smith), as Dallas will want some veteran depth to round out the forward group. Carrier would be a nice little acquisition, as I think he’s likely to be a positive value for what he’ll command on the market. Then again, he has a Cup ring, so maybe the competition for his services gets too rich and Nill looks elsewhere for a bargain.

To that end, Jeff Marek said offhandedly on 32 Thoughts the other day that the Stars want to bring Duchene back, which makes sense if he’s motivated to again take less than his market value from Dallas in order to stay. Carrier and Duchene would bring Dallas to 13 forwards, and I’d expect a depth signing or two with Texas also facing a few possible UFA departures as well, like Nick Caamano and Fredrik Karlstrom.

I’m not particularly keen on bringing Duchene back, myself. Despite scoring 25 goals and 40 assists in the season, he looked like a shell of himself in the playoffs (his immortal series-winner against Colorado notwithstanding). He also faded down the stretch in the regular season, scoring just two goals and seven assists in his last 22 games, with four of those nine points coming against Arizona. Safe to say, his playoff struggles were pretty well telegraphed. Whether he wore down from the grind of a season on a thirty-something body or just mental and emotional fatigue, the struggles were real.

It’s worth noting that Duchene talked very candidly about this decline after the season, saying that all the turmoil of being bought out, moving his family, and adjusting to a new team finally caught up with him as the season wore on. He’s always a very honest interview, so it’s worth listening to if you haven’t already. Duchene clearly loved his year in Dallas, so the Stars would probably be happy to bring him back at closer to $4 million for a couple of years (though even that will stretch their budget for next year). However, I don’t think Duchene’s agent would be thrilled with him leaving money on the table, so we’ll have to see if the Stars’ leverage ends up making it make sense for the team or not. I don’t think this is a given by any stretch, but a player who’s made a lot of money in his career might be that little bit more likely to take less to stay in a place he loves. But it all depends on how each side defines “less.”

As for possible moves Dallas could make, I don’t think I see them spending big in free agency (outside of a few million on Duchene or his replacement). Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, and Jake Guentzel are going to be pretty spendy, with at least one of them likely to be wooed to Utah for a ton of cash. I’d expect another Craig Smith sort of depth signing, someone around $1 million to round out the bottom six, although I think they’ll look for a player who can help on the PK this time around (like Carrier), which Smith couldn’t do.

All told, I’d look for Nill to sign either Duchene, or someone with a cap hit similar to Duchene’s bargain from last year. Maybe Steven Stamkos takes less to go to Dallas, but he just scored 40 goals, so I don’t know how that sort of $3-4 million number really makes sense from his standpoint. If the Stars keep Bourque at center, as they seem inclined to do, I just don’t know that Duchene or Stamkos or anyone in that Name Brand class makes a ton of sense long-term. But for a couple of years at a deal that gives the Stars a good chance to get positive value? Sure. Duchene seems the only one motivated to do that of the names available, though.

Bottom line: Dallas needs at least two viable NHL forwards and another couple contingency plans, but they have a lot of depth at the position right now, so I’d expect them to reserve a good chunk of their available cap space to be spent on defense.

One possible forward lineup for opening night

Robertson-Hintz-Seguin
Benn-Johnston-Stankoven
Dadonov-Duchene-Carrier
Marchment-Steel-Bourque
Faksa

For the record: I don’t think Duchene will make sense as a third-line player at the price he’ll command, so I think it’s just as likely Mavrik Bourque is in that spot. But just based on what we’ve heard so far, I’m sticking with the above for the purposes of projection.

Defensemen

We talked about this a bit the other day, so give that piece a read if you haven’t yet.

In that same podcast from above regarding Duchene, Jeff Marek also mentioned (along with everyone else in the world) that the Stars are working to bring Chris Tanev back. Darren Dreger also said as much the other day, so I think there’s reason to be hopeful that Tanev will return. After all, why wouldn’t Dallas bring back a player who fits the role they want at a position they lack any depth at?

Mike Heika mentioned a couple weeks back that the Stars really do need to get a right-handed partner for Heiskanen, and I think it’s time they do. Heiskanen has spent far too much of his career with Roman Polak, Jamie Olekisak, or Ryan Suter. Thomas Harley was a great partner insofar as he could do a lot of work that had traditionally fallen solely to Heiskanen when it came to zone exits and transitions, but it still meant Heiskanen was having to take an extra step, an extra beat to get the puck situated properly before passing it.

If you take a look at the free agent RHDs, you can see why everyone wants Brett Pesce. He’s the pick of the litter, with players like Matt Roy and Dylan DeMelo also likely to command not insignificant dollars. I’m not sure Dallas will have the money for Tanev and Pesce along with new deals for Steel and Harley, and that’s before you even hazard a guess at what Will Carrier and Matt Duchene would take home. $16 million just doesn’t go as far as it used to, am I right folks.

Tanev will still be at least $4 million per year, I’d think. You can’t reasonably spend another $8 million (random number) on Pesce or another gold-plated UFA. So while everyone wants Heiskanen to be on his strong side, I don’t see that happening via free agency. But a trade? Well, Nill has surprised us before. Don’t be shocked if Dallas makes a move at the draft for a player that can at least spend some time at the top RHD spot, even if they swap out with Harley or Tanev situationally.

To be clear: a trade for a top RHD isn’t likely, but it is the only way I see the Stars getting another top-four RHD along with Tanev. Of course, they could bring back Hakanpää or even Klingberg on a try-me deal, but I don’t see a ton of upside in either of those (sorry, John). More likely, the Stars will give Petrovic or someone in his category a little extra security to be their Joel Hanley. Petrovic is worth a bit more to them than the open market given how he acquitted himself in the playoffs, so I’d think the Stars could find room for him at a price that doesn’t do anything crazy to the cap. But he’ll be in higher demand than when they signed him to play in Texas, so who knows whether he’ll stick around.

Oh, and here’s a bit of a take: the Stars might genuinely have to waive Lundkvist before opening night in order to give themselves a bit of cap space to work with. As you’ll see below, even relatively optimistic contract projections will take up every bit of the $16 million Dallas has available, which is also why Dellandrea (I think) had to be moved out, since he certainly would’ve been claimed off waivers. Bichsel probably has to start in the minors so he doesn’t count against the cap on opening night, but maybe it’ll be a moot point by then. For now, I’ll presume he comes up around November or so. I don’t know that Nill would want to risk losing Lundkvist for nothing, but then again, they’ve basically kept him around to do nothing in the last two playoff runs, so maybe it’s time to face facts and take the risk of losing him if they have a strong enough supporting cast.

Anyway, let’s not worry about cap stuff just yet. The Stars could open the season with this sorta lineup on the back end, barring some moves in the next few weeks:

One possible defensive lineup for opening night

Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Tanev
Suter-Petrovic
Lundkvist

Cap Room

Close your eyes, Mark Janko, because I’m about to do some quick and dirty cap math here. With $16.2 million in projected cap space, here’s one way you could see it being spent. Rough numbers only:

$4 million to Tanev
$4 million to Duchene
$4 million to Harley
$2 million to Will Carrier
$1 million to Wedgewood
$1 million to Steel
$1 million to Petrovic

The eagle-eyed reader will notice that those numbers add up to $17 million, which is (per my source) more than $16 million. There’ll be some little cap wiggling that’ll need to happen, but I’m not terribly interested in theorizing ahead of the facts at this point. The reality is that, if the Stars do not buy out Ryan Suter, they’re going to be up against the cap again, and that’ll require something of Jim Nill to even approximate the same roster next year.

Really though, these lineups look largely the same, and I don’t think there’s a strong likelihood of that. I could see the Stars trying to find ways to move players like Dadnonov or even Faksa (five-team NTC and all) if it meant bolstering their defense, but that would be a big, big deal. There’s enough depth in the top nine even without Matt Duchene that the Stars can’t afford not to bring in another top-four RHD to bolster their biggest area of need, but because of the cap situation as it stands now, I think Tanev will be the priority, with a second RHD a luxury. For now.

Trades are never guaranteed, and so if absolutely nothing comes together for Nill before opening night, there’s a world where the only actual new names would be Bourque and Carrier (or a reasonable facsimile of him) at first. But Nill has made in-season trades quite a bit in his tenure, so don’t put it past him to slow-play the final roster adjustments. With Lian Bichsel waiting in the wings, the Stars have some time to address their very specific needs. This is a well-built team, even if it’s not perfect.

But even the best cars need maintenance on a regular basis, right? Time to take the ol’ car back into the shop for its summer checkup. If history is any indicated, the one Jim Nill gets back will be, as usual, a fair bit better than the one he drove last year.