The Good and the [It's Complicated] of the Stars' Goaltending This Season

There's a lot to like, and some things not to love

Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith at practice in Frisco, TX

As we sit here on Friday afternoon, the Dallas Stars have gotten out to a great start through 21 games. They’re second in the NHL in points, tied for second in regulation wins, and sixth in overall goal-differential.

In other words: They’re really good.

Like last year, however, another team in the Central Division is overshadowing them by playing hockey like they’re Harry Potter with eyeballs turned completely white with power. Clearly the Stars learned their lesson after winning the Central Division in 2024, though: Cool your jets and keep the powder dry until the playoffs. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

But because of how the Stars’ season ended last year, goaltending was always going to be under the microscope just a tad more this year than usual. But before we dig into this season, it’s worth remembering just how weird the hyperfocus on goaltending is, considering that under Pete DeBoer, the Stars’ goaltending ranked 3rd in the regular season from 2022-2025, behind only Boston and (shocker) Winnipeg during those years.

How did they go from having some of the best goaltending in the league to DeBoer demonstrating a very visible loss of confidence in their franchise goaltender?

Well, the key words up there are “regular season.” During the “playoffs,” the Stars (whose goaltending in the postseason during that time was 99% Jake Oettinger) put up an .896 save percentage over 56 postseason contests, which ranks 9th among all playoff teams (most of whom played far fewer games). Not bad, but not great, either.

That .896 playoff save percentage for Dallas (Oettinger) was seven points better than Edmonton’s .889, and it might also sound tantalizingly close to Florida’s .905, which was enough for the Panthers to win two Stanley Cups and make a third Final.

But a nine-point difference in a save percentage across 50+ games is a pretty significant one, and to hear Pete DeBoer tell it, the multi-year struggles from Jake Oettinger just became too much to ignore.

Hold on, though. Because something absolutely jumps off the page when you look at that same three-year playoff span among the best teams over those years, and it just doesn’t feel right to let the “playoff goaltending sunk the Stars’ Jenga ship” narrative without pointing to the elephant in the room.

An Offensive Digression

Stats from this link at Natural Stat Trick

The Stars played 56 playoff games in those three years. Under DeBoer at 5v5, the Stars actually allowed six fewer goals than expected in those games. That’s good!

But also under DeBoer, the Stars scored 32 (thirty-two!) fewer playoff goals at 5v5 than expected. That’s, uh, incredibly bad!

Oh, but don’t worry—I see you in the back, raising your hand, pompously preparing to pillory the power play.