The Dallas Stars’ 13th Forward Debate May Already Be Over

As the Stars prepare to wrap up their preseason, I figured I’d give a rundown of some of my stray thoughts, conversations, and observations from the last couple of weeks. Because I am not always the most concise about these things, I figured I’d start by keeping this post centered on just one question, and perhaps the most timely one of all:

Who Will Be the 13th Forward?

Two things right off the bat: First, let’s just presume that everyone is healthy (which looks to be the case as of Thursday afternoon, when both Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston were skating with the non-game practice group).

Second, let’s also stick to discussing just a 13th forward rather than a 14th one as well. Even with some extra breathing room with the salary cap this year, I’d still expect Jim Nill to bank some extra cap space by only carrying 22 players on Opening Night. I’d expect Brendan Smith to be one of those scratches, and for a forward to be the other. Which one? Well, that’s what we’re here to discuss. Let’s start with a Tweet from Bruce:

Some food for thought: (IMO)
Both Kole Lind and Oskar Back have years of experience playing in North America. Arttu Hyry has none.
If all things are equal, expect Lind and Back to begin the year in Dallas while Hyry percolates in the AHL for a bit.
He will get his chance soon.

— Bruce LeVine (@BruceLeVinePuck) October 3, 2024

Under Jim Nill, this organization hasn’t always worried about “North America experience” unless the player’s game cried out for it. Mattias Janmark, you’ll remember, needed no such seasoning, jumping straight to the NHL from Sweden. Joel Kiviranta did get the first half of the 2019-20 season in Cedar Park, but I think it only served to confirm that his instincts were sharp enough to adjust to the smaller ice without much of an issue all along.

Arttu Hyry plays a slightly different game than either player, but I don’t know that North American Preparedness is going to be the determining factor when it comes to whether he starts the year in Dallas. He’s shown a bit of versatility the past couple of weeks, and he looks as capable of spelling someone in the top six as the fourth line. I also think the distinction between hockey in the Finnish Elite League and the modern NHL isn’t as drastic as the continental divide used to be. Hyry is a player that needs to play games, period, just for Dallas to know his ceiling. So if he goes to Cedar Park before next Thursday, it’s probably as much to give the team more information about how good he can be than to help him acclimate to this side of the pond. That’s just my opinion, though.

As for Kole Lind and Oskar Bäck (and Matěj Blümel, who skated later this morning with the non-game group), I think it comes down to the role the coaches want to fill. When asked what the bubble players could do tonight to earn a spot on the roster, Steve Spott said this: “When you look at the guys that are in the lineup tonight, that are right there, absolutely, it’s going to [make] an impression. They’re gonna leave the lasting impression that ‘Yes, I should have an opportunity to start, or if I do get reassigned, I want to be the first guy that’s called up.’ ” So tonight looms pretty large, if the battle is truly still being fought.

However, I’m not convinced that battle is about who starts in Dallas right now, but moreso about who is viewed as a viable call-up if injuries mount later on. When talking to some of the players over the past week, one thing I’ve heard more than once is that, as much as they are trying to play their game and show their coaches they deserve that spot, they also know it sometimes comes down to the role the coach is looking for, particularly when it comes to replacing someone who gets injured. DeBoer said to all the younger players on the first day of training camp that it was up to them to show the coaches how they can help the team, which is to say he wasn’t only looking for the best skaters or the biggest bodies, but for any player who could make the team better. But this is also a very, very good hockey team, and I have to think the coaches have a pretty good idea of which players are most likely to get swapped out in something like a back-to-back scenario, if needed. (Note: if memory serves, the Stars didn’t actually swap out too many of their players in back-to-back situations last year, which is perhaps a testament to modern conditioning as much as anything.) Coaches don’t like change when things are going well, so my hunch is that 13th forward spot is going to be all about who is most likely to bring stability rather than potential.

Put it this way: I think Blümel is, unfortunately for him, the most unique of those four players as a scoring left-winger who doesn’t bring as much size as some of the other options. Dallas has so many outstanding options on the power play already that there are fewer scenarios in which Blümel would be seen as the ideal replacement for someone else on the roster, even if he brings great skating and quality scoring ability. In fact, even if the Stars did need another offensive left winger to replace someone like Marchment, Robertson, or Benn, I think Sam Steel is likely to be the one that gets elevated before any of the younger forwards.

That’s true for replacing wingers on both sides up the lineup, as Dadonov generally plays on his off-wing (which is to say at right wing), so he and Steel are more likely players to get moved up for a winger spot than someone like Blümel (or even Lind or Hyry). So in the event the Stars do need to replace a forward in the upper lines, any new addition is more likely to backfill a spot on the fourth line than to plug right into one of the higher lines.

So, in a way, the three wingers are all sort of waiting for two spots to open up in the top nine, since Steel is the easier player to elevate, if need be. But of course, that means that someone would have to, ahem, Bäckfill the vacant spot at fourth-line center if Steel moved up.

Oskar Bäck is headed to St. Louis to play in his fifth preseason game tonight, which is tied for the lead along with players like Kole Lind, Lian Bichsel, Logan Stankoven, and Nils Lundkvist. In three of his four games thus far Bäck has been on a line with Colin Blackwell, and I am betting that we see that pair for the fourth time against the Blues tonight. Lind, for all of his experience and ability, has primarily played with other likely AHL-bound players at 5-on-5 this preseason. Hyry will get his fourth game tonight, but he also hasn’t been stapled to an NHL-bound player with any real frequency. That may be telling.

In fact, when I asked Blackwell the other day if he’d started to develop chemistry with any other forward so far this year, Bäck was the first player he mentioned. And frankly, it makes sense, given the time they’ve played together and the complementary skills they bring to the table. Blackwell is a fast, hardworking forward who can lead a forecheck, whereas Bäck is a large, responsible center rocking a +3 so far this preseason who can clean things up without hamstringing speedy forwards with scoring potential on either of him. In fact, that’s exactly how Neil Graham used Bäck in the final game of the Texas Stars’ playoff run last year, when Bäck centered a line with Blümel and Fredrik Karlström. Graham has also been behind the bench for much of the preseason thus far, so you can bet that he’s shared his observations on Bäck (and Blümel) with the rest of the coaching staff in great detail.

We sometimes talk about how players are “blocked” by the depth of the Stars’ system; however, I really think the main factor blocking Hyry, Lind, and Blümel is the Dallas forwards’ versatility. So, if I’m guessing, the Stars will likely start the year by only carrying 13 forwards in order to bank extra salary cap space. And that spot seems like Oskar Bäck’s to lose.

(And hey: even if I end up being totally wrong come next Thursday in Nashville, the very fact that so much of the lineup is already locked down is, itself, a testament to how good this team is likely to be. That’s a pretty exciting way to head into a new season.)

So with all that said, if these prognostications (and roster health) all pan out, the Stars could start the below roster against Nashville on Opening Night:

Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Wyatt Johnston
Mason Marchment-Matt Duchene-Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn-Mavrik Bourque-Logan Stankoven
Colin Blackwell-Sam Steel-Evgenii Dadonov
Healthy Scratch: Oskar Bäck

Miro Heiskanen-Matt Dumba
Thomas Harley-Ilya Lubushkin
Esa Lindell-Nils Lundkvist
Healthy scratch: Brendan Smith

Jake Oettinger
Casey DeSmith