Pulling Otter was a panic move, period. DeBoer is the Stars head coach next year, period. The change this team needs is to the roster. Tough cap situation. Not much apparently on the defense market available. You're up Mr Nill, last summer was a dumpster fire with the D picked up, this team needs a better off season from the GM
In the moment, it sure looked like one. Listening to DeBoer, he outlines a bit more of the background conversations that were going on about Oettinger even after Game 3. In a way, I wonder if DeBoer wishes they had started DeSmith in Game 4 or 5. Clearly they talked about it. I'd love to know why they ultimately decided not to do that.
I'm sticking to my initial thoughts after game 6. The Stars are the #3 team in the league. The fact is, they aren't better right now than Edmonton. It's natural for the coach(s) to get blamed...it's normal. Blaming Nill? Bizzaro. The players...they either failed or were outmatched. I am not sure about the weighting of failed vs outmatched percentages, though.
That's a fair way to put it. You don't want to say they were so outmatched that they have to tear it down, but it's also hard to deny that the last two springs have seen Edmonton go 8-3 against Dallas.
I'm pretty much here as well. Sometimes you just are only the 3rd or 4th best team no matter what you try to do. I would take Oettinger over Skinner every day of the week and twice on Sunday, but the Oilers are so good everywhere else and better as a group than the Stars are as a group. That's just the way it has been the last two years.
It's weird they have not spoken. That should have have happened no matter the whole "simmer down first" narrative. That is not the kind of stuff you wait for in my opinion.
In the moment I kind of thought, "Well, huh. Maybe emotions are too raw Thursday night after the game, okay. And maybe Friday, they need that off day to decompress, so you don't want to reach out, I guess? But to go to the media on Saturday morning and talk about him *again* without even clearing the air? I mean, a veteran coach knows that question is probably coming. It struck me as odd that he didn't at least have a brief chat over the phone or something, if only to be able to say that they had talked when the question came.
Agreed. Also, after watching Jake's interview rather than only reading the text, he's not happy at all. He is very professional yet not happy with how everything went down. I very much enjoyed your writing this season and look forward to a great offseason.
I stand by my initial reaction. You dance with who brung ya. Pulling your franchise goalie in an elimination game was a pure panic move and the wrong choice. Really the first time I've been upset with DeBeoer, and then his attitude after made it worse. I could go on a rant about how we should have adjusted our d zone coverage for better outlets, or our breakouts skating the puck up instead of always trying stretch passes, or adjusted our attack when teams started stacking the blue line to take away our rush offense, but I won't. I don't know if Otter ever becomes a series stealing goalie, but he's a top ten NHL goaltender. He is a big reason why we won the first 2 series. You give him the chance to fight back and keep his team from going home.
That's why I keep coming back to. It's like you have a car that has some mechanical problems, but its engine keeps chugging along on a road trip. You get through the first leg of the trip all right, even though the steering was pulling to the left and you're leaking oil. You get through the second leg despite long stretches where the headlights and air conditioning aren't working and the fuel pump is weakening. So when you finally get to the third leg of your journey and the engine won't start, you junk the car, even though the current issue might have been more of a symptom of all the other issues you never quite found a way to fix, rather than the root of the problem itself.
Great comments by many, and thank you, Bob, for all you do. I am so glad a subscriber to Sean Shapiro's site referred me to you.
After listening to Pete and his explanations, I appreciate how he owns it, but not talking with Jake yet is not good, and ultimately, I just don't agree with his thinking.
Yes, you do need your goalie to keep you in the game early, and get you through some rough 1st periods sometimes. But, if my stats are correct, the Stars played 18 playoff games, and gave up the 1st goal in 15 of them. That's not on your goalie. The data is very clear, in the regular season as well, that when an NHL teams scores the first goal, then win 67% of the time. It's the same in the playoffs.
So, the onus is on the Stars offense and defending. Something needs to change. Also, this has not been talked about to my knowledge, but Esa and Cody were I believe very poor against Edmonton, and multiple times on the PK, left Corey Perry all alone. That is not on Otter.
Something is going to need to change, but with the salary cap problems, roster movement is likely going to be limited, and you also have no # 1 draft picks I believe for 3 years, but you do have a world class winger in Mikko. The current group doesn't have the formula to beat Edmonton. It's too bad the Kings folded, and mind you, St. Louis as well. You never know how those things affect the post season. Dallas had to go all out to beat Colorado and Winnipeg. There does not seem to be another level.
But I understand the thinking. And I give deBoer credit for having the willingness to make the tough call. Far too many coaches do the "traditional" thing bc not doing it means inviting the spotlight on yourself and if things don't work out the coach gets blamed.
Look at the 2025 Dallas Stars narrative right not....90% of the attention is on a single deBoer decision in the final game of the season.
NOT on the forward group's complete disappearing act.
NOT on your "superstar" acquisition who scored (checks notes) one goal in his final 10 games. NOT on the roster that gave up 16 goals in the team's final 3 games and a minimum of 3 in every game of the WCF.
NOT on the captain who might has have well have had a missing person's bulletin placed on him.
NOT on every DMan the GM acquired during the off-season not even making it onto the ice.
Bold decisions are rare in professional coaching bc most coaches don't want to risk dealing with the fallout if they don't work out. I admire deBoer's willingness to deal with the potential negative fallout; that's a sign of a coach confident in himself and frankly I'd rather have that than a robotic guys who just does what you're supposed to do.
These are great points. I am very critical of DeBoer for the Oettinger decision, but I still think that he is an excellent NHL coach. You don't lose 6 conference finals or whatever it is without being good enough to get to them in the first place. We all know where the roster needs to be improved and that's now mostly Jim Nill's job. Oettinger will be fine because he's Oettinger. Maybe tweak the system to make it a little less high risk, high reward and therefore more suitable for playoff hockey. But you still want to be a rush team because that's where you get a lot of the best scoring chances.
Yeah, I mean Robert didn't cover this but both Edm and Dallas were among the best in the league on the rush. But Dallas lost ALL of that in the playoffs with very few goals after carrying the puck into the offensive zone and attacking.
Edm, by contrast, got a ton of goals on the rush.
Let's examine that! Why did one's team's transition offense thrive and the other's disappear?
The explanation I got when I asked Stars folks about it was that Edmonton had the lead, so they could sit back and then counterattack on the rush when Dallas had to press, and expose them.
Technically, the Stars made more mistakes with defensemen pinching at the wrong times and forwards getting caught being too low in the offensive low. Why? Because they fell behind in games and had to take more chances. Plus, Conner McDavid.
I haven't changed my mind at all about the Oettinger issue. He was not happy about being pulled and I don't know that he will ever forgive Pete for doing it -- no matter what public face he is putting on it. And I still think it was mistake at the time that was compounded when Pete didn't put him back in after the 1st intermission.
Regarding the style issues, the Stars have always been a rush team under DeBoer, and that's a good thing to be. You have a lot better chance of scoring on a rush than you do by dump and chase, cycling, or going for a greasy goal or deflection goal. The problem is that the best teams like Edmonton or Florida don't allow as many odd-man rushes as other teams. And they don't make mistakes in their own end that result in more Grade A chances in the offensive zone. [Otter is right about 15 Grade As being tougher to stop than 30 normal shots.] So, you need to be able to get those messy greasy goals or deflection zones. Or, you need to out grind a team down and draw more power plays.
Pulling Otter was a panic move, period. DeBoer is the Stars head coach next year, period. The change this team needs is to the roster. Tough cap situation. Not much apparently on the defense market available. You're up Mr Nill, last summer was a dumpster fire with the D picked up, this team needs a better off season from the GM
In the moment, it sure looked like one. Listening to DeBoer, he outlines a bit more of the background conversations that were going on about Oettinger even after Game 3. In a way, I wonder if DeBoer wishes they had started DeSmith in Game 4 or 5. Clearly they talked about it. I'd love to know why they ultimately decided not to do that.
I'm sticking to my initial thoughts after game 6. The Stars are the #3 team in the league. The fact is, they aren't better right now than Edmonton. It's natural for the coach(s) to get blamed...it's normal. Blaming Nill? Bizzaro. The players...they either failed or were outmatched. I am not sure about the weighting of failed vs outmatched percentages, though.
That's a fair way to put it. You don't want to say they were so outmatched that they have to tear it down, but it's also hard to deny that the last two springs have seen Edmonton go 8-3 against Dallas.
I'm pretty much here as well. Sometimes you just are only the 3rd or 4th best team no matter what you try to do. I would take Oettinger over Skinner every day of the week and twice on Sunday, but the Oilers are so good everywhere else and better as a group than the Stars are as a group. That's just the way it has been the last two years.
It's weird they have not spoken. That should have have happened no matter the whole "simmer down first" narrative. That is not the kind of stuff you wait for in my opinion.
In the moment I kind of thought, "Well, huh. Maybe emotions are too raw Thursday night after the game, okay. And maybe Friday, they need that off day to decompress, so you don't want to reach out, I guess? But to go to the media on Saturday morning and talk about him *again* without even clearing the air? I mean, a veteran coach knows that question is probably coming. It struck me as odd that he didn't at least have a brief chat over the phone or something, if only to be able to say that they had talked when the question came.
Agreed. Also, after watching Jake's interview rather than only reading the text, he's not happy at all. He is very professional yet not happy with how everything went down. I very much enjoyed your writing this season and look forward to a great offseason.
Otter is pissed off. Trust me on this.
I stand by my initial reaction. You dance with who brung ya. Pulling your franchise goalie in an elimination game was a pure panic move and the wrong choice. Really the first time I've been upset with DeBeoer, and then his attitude after made it worse. I could go on a rant about how we should have adjusted our d zone coverage for better outlets, or our breakouts skating the puck up instead of always trying stretch passes, or adjusted our attack when teams started stacking the blue line to take away our rush offense, but I won't. I don't know if Otter ever becomes a series stealing goalie, but he's a top ten NHL goaltender. He is a big reason why we won the first 2 series. You give him the chance to fight back and keep his team from going home.
That's why I keep coming back to. It's like you have a car that has some mechanical problems, but its engine keeps chugging along on a road trip. You get through the first leg of the trip all right, even though the steering was pulling to the left and you're leaking oil. You get through the second leg despite long stretches where the headlights and air conditioning aren't working and the fuel pump is weakening. So when you finally get to the third leg of your journey and the engine won't start, you junk the car, even though the current issue might have been more of a symptom of all the other issues you never quite found a way to fix, rather than the root of the problem itself.
💯
Great comments by many, and thank you, Bob, for all you do. I am so glad a subscriber to Sean Shapiro's site referred me to you.
After listening to Pete and his explanations, I appreciate how he owns it, but not talking with Jake yet is not good, and ultimately, I just don't agree with his thinking.
Yes, you do need your goalie to keep you in the game early, and get you through some rough 1st periods sometimes. But, if my stats are correct, the Stars played 18 playoff games, and gave up the 1st goal in 15 of them. That's not on your goalie. The data is very clear, in the regular season as well, that when an NHL teams scores the first goal, then win 67% of the time. It's the same in the playoffs.
So, the onus is on the Stars offense and defending. Something needs to change. Also, this has not been talked about to my knowledge, but Esa and Cody were I believe very poor against Edmonton, and multiple times on the PK, left Corey Perry all alone. That is not on Otter.
Something is going to need to change, but with the salary cap problems, roster movement is likely going to be limited, and you also have no # 1 draft picks I believe for 3 years, but you do have a world class winger in Mikko. The current group doesn't have the formula to beat Edmonton. It's too bad the Kings folded, and mind you, St. Louis as well. You never know how those things affect the post season. Dallas had to go all out to beat Colorado and Winnipeg. There does not seem to be another level.
I wouldn't have pulled Otter.
But I understand the thinking. And I give deBoer credit for having the willingness to make the tough call. Far too many coaches do the "traditional" thing bc not doing it means inviting the spotlight on yourself and if things don't work out the coach gets blamed.
Look at the 2025 Dallas Stars narrative right not....90% of the attention is on a single deBoer decision in the final game of the season.
NOT on the forward group's complete disappearing act.
NOT on your "superstar" acquisition who scored (checks notes) one goal in his final 10 games. NOT on the roster that gave up 16 goals in the team's final 3 games and a minimum of 3 in every game of the WCF.
NOT on the captain who might has have well have had a missing person's bulletin placed on him.
NOT on every DMan the GM acquired during the off-season not even making it onto the ice.
Bold decisions are rare in professional coaching bc most coaches don't want to risk dealing with the fallout if they don't work out. I admire deBoer's willingness to deal with the potential negative fallout; that's a sign of a coach confident in himself and frankly I'd rather have that than a robotic guys who just does what you're supposed to do.
These are great points. I am very critical of DeBoer for the Oettinger decision, but I still think that he is an excellent NHL coach. You don't lose 6 conference finals or whatever it is without being good enough to get to them in the first place. We all know where the roster needs to be improved and that's now mostly Jim Nill's job. Oettinger will be fine because he's Oettinger. Maybe tweak the system to make it a little less high risk, high reward and therefore more suitable for playoff hockey. But you still want to be a rush team because that's where you get a lot of the best scoring chances.
Yeah, I mean Robert didn't cover this but both Edm and Dallas were among the best in the league on the rush. But Dallas lost ALL of that in the playoffs with very few goals after carrying the puck into the offensive zone and attacking.
Edm, by contrast, got a ton of goals on the rush.
Let's examine that! Why did one's team's transition offense thrive and the other's disappear?
The explanation I got when I asked Stars folks about it was that Edmonton had the lead, so they could sit back and then counterattack on the rush when Dallas had to press, and expose them.
Yep. Hockey 101 when playing with the lead.
Technically, the Stars made more mistakes with defensemen pinching at the wrong times and forwards getting caught being too low in the offensive low. Why? Because they fell behind in games and had to take more chances. Plus, Conner McDavid.
I haven't changed my mind at all about the Oettinger issue. He was not happy about being pulled and I don't know that he will ever forgive Pete for doing it -- no matter what public face he is putting on it. And I still think it was mistake at the time that was compounded when Pete didn't put him back in after the 1st intermission.
Regarding the style issues, the Stars have always been a rush team under DeBoer, and that's a good thing to be. You have a lot better chance of scoring on a rush than you do by dump and chase, cycling, or going for a greasy goal or deflection goal. The problem is that the best teams like Edmonton or Florida don't allow as many odd-man rushes as other teams. And they don't make mistakes in their own end that result in more Grade A chances in the offensive zone. [Otter is right about 15 Grade As being tougher to stop than 30 normal shots.] So, you need to be able to get those messy greasy goals or deflection zones. Or, you need to out grind a team down and draw more power plays.