Stars Head to St. Louis with Defensive Deficits, New Line Chemistry

Nils Lundkvist sustained a lowed-body injury on Thursday against Vancouver

You may have noticed that Nils Lundkvist did not play a shift during the third period against Vancouver last night.

In the past, fans might have automatically assumed that Lundkvist’s absence was a result of his play or decision-making, as the young defenseman often struggled to consistently hold onto a lineup spot under Pete DeBoer. And given the situation entering the third period for Dallas last night (trailing 4-2), it wasn’t altogether surprising to see pairings and lines get shuffled, with Heiskanen and Harley getting paired together early on to juice the offense.

This time, however, Lundkvist’s absence was for a very common (and unfortunate) reason: He sustained a lower-body injury during the game.

“Nils is getting looked at today,” Gulutzan said Friday after practice. “Something happened in-game, so he’s just gonna have it looked at. We’re pretty optimistic, but we’re gonna have it looked at.”

Lundkvist’s final shift came with just over five minutes remaining in the second period, and I couldn’t find him on the bench during the third period when I went back and checked the Victory+ broadcast.

It’s a tough hand for Lundkvist to be dealt after a solid start to the season. It also reminds you a bit of how Lundkvist went down with a season-ending shoulder injury last January, right when an opportunity for more ice time opened up as a result of Miro Heiskanen’s knee injury.

So, the hope for now is that Gulutzan’s optimism proves well-founded, and Lundkvist is able to get back into the lineup before long to continue his work alongside Thomas Harley. After a couple of mistakes by that pairing last night against the Canucks, I’m sure those two are as anxious as anyone to hit the “Refresh” button.

Speaking of Harley, he also missed practice on Friday with an illness, but Gulutzan said he expects Harley to play Saturday in St. Louis. If Harley couldn’t play for any reason, the Stars would be down to just five defensemen, meaning they would likely have to send Justin Hryckowian down to the AHL in order to recall a defenseman like Kyle Capobianco, who filled in briefly last year.

Gulutzan said on Friday that they weren’t going to “rule anybody in or out,” including Matt Duchene. However, Duchene was a full participant in practice today on a line with Tyler Seguin and Colin Blackwell. So, the guess here is that Duchene will play in St. Louis after missing Thursday’s game as a precaution, following the high hit from Jake Middleton.

Here’s what those practice lines looked like today, if you care about such things:

Steel-Hintz-Rantanen
Blackwell-Duchene-Seguin
Robertson-Johnston-Bourque
Erne-Faksa-Bastian

The defensemen rotated pretty frequently without Harley or Lundkvist on the ice, and Justin Hryckowian filled in as a defenseman at times, too. So if you really, really wanted to take a wild guess about defense pairings, I guess you’d probably put Harley with Lyubushkin, Bichsel with Petrovic, and Heiskanen with Lindell. But I do not want to take a wild guess about lineups, so it’s up to you.

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One thing about line combos that did interest me was Tyler Seguin playing on a line with Wyatt Johnston last night. I didn’t recall them ever playing together much at all before this year, and I thought that line (with Jason Robertson on the left side) looked pretty good last night, even before you factored in the power play goal all three created at 6-on-4 late in the third period:

Today after practice, I had a chance to chat with Seguin, who confirmed that he and Johnston haven’t really ever skated on the same line before this year in Dallas, when Johnston has occasionally played on Duchene’s left wing opposite Seguin on the right, and then last night, when Johnston played center between Seguin and Robertson.

In fact, Seguin said he and Johnston had also discussed how they hadn’t ever really played on the same line as recently as this summer, when the two were skating together back in Ontario. Little did they know that this would be the year they finally got a chance to do so.

Seguin also hypothesized that their lack of playing time together during the last three years may have had a bit to do with the fact that they’re both right-shot forwards. So when a top-six position was open (like when Joe Pavelski would miss time), one or the other would move up to that spot, but the two usually wouldn’t be played together.

Another example could be found back in January 2023, when Roope Hintz missed some time. Seguin moved up to center the top line between Robertson and Pavelski, while the rookie Wyatt Johnston remained on his own line with Jamie Benn, and one of Marchment, Dellandrea, or even Denis Gurianov, until the arrival of Evgenii Dadonov before the trade deadline.

The following year saw the arrival of Duchene and Marchment, with whom Seguin played most of his time across the next two years. But with Marchment and other left-wingers departing this year, new combinations were bound to appear.

We may not see Johnston centering Seguin too much after Duchene comes back in, but Johnston and Seguin looked good on a line with Robertson on Thursday night. That’s a testament to the skill of all three players involved.

Incidentally, that prior conversation also led to an interesting discussion between Seguin and Duchene (whose stalls are next to each other in the Stars dressing room) about how Duchene and Johnston both create scoring chances with Seguin on their right wing, but in some different ways.

Just going off the last few games, you can recall the cutbacks and spin moves that Duchene was using against Winnipeg or Minnesota to create space and passing lanes, whereas Johnston’s offensive work tends to have slightly more of a give-and-go passing approach in tight spaces, pulling defenders out of position with the puck a tad moreso than with his skating.

As with all great centers, however, there’s a lot of overlap in skills between the two. It’s the differences that highlight each player’s unique gifts, but the similarities are easy to take for granted.

Regardless, Seguin knows what to expect from the different centers in different situations, so he times his arrivals and routes in order to be available for the sorts of plays each center can make. It’s fun to watch, and it reminds you of what the Stars were missing for so much of last season.

Here’s Seguin’s goal against Winnipeg last week, when he reads Duchene’s spin move and arrives at the back post at the perfect time to beat Connor Hellebuyck. Watch how Seguin (Number 91 in white) shifts his weight just enough to avoid getting to the net too soon without losing momentum entirely. It’s subtle, but it’s impressive how perfectly it all works out:

Both Johnston and Duchene are elite centers. Duchene led the team in scoring last year, and Johnston led the Stars in goals the year before that. And with a player as talented and skilled as Seguin, it’s a pretty clear win-win scenario, or maybe win-win-win, since we’re talking about three players.

In the neutral and defensive zones, the differences between one center or another become a bit less noticeable, but the Stars have the luxury of having multiple outstanding centers who can create offense in the O-zone in different ways—as well as a veteran scorer in Seguin who can adapt his game to either approach, even if he’s never played with one of them much before this year.

(I hear Seguin was pretty good on a line with that Jamie Benn guy back in the day, too. I’ll have to look into that someday.)

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Some quick and probably meaningless Dallas Stars Stats through a chaotic four games of the regular season:

Fourth-most shots on goal allowed per game (NHL.com)
Fifth-most goals scored per game at 5-on-5 (Natural Stat Trick)
Second-most goals per game overall (NHL.com)
Second-best power play in the league at 38.5% (NHL.com)
Seventh-worst penalty kill in the league at 68.8% (NHL.com)
19th in expected goals share at 5-on-5 (Natural Stat Trick)
Most first-period goals scored (NHL.com)
T-Least first period goals allowed (NHL.com)

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Finally, if you haven’t done so yet, I’d recommend checking out Sean Shapiro’s piece on watching Stars games on Victory+ so far this season.

We have to talk about what's happening with the Victory+ intermission report

I’m working on getting some more background regarding all the changes to the broadcast this year, but I think Sean does a great job of discussing the context of the changes from the viewer’s perspective, as well as how they reflect broader shifts across the sports broadcasting landscape. Give it a read.