Free Agency Reactions: The Dallas Stars Are Going to Look Different Next Year
Note: I’ll be updating this post throughout the day
With Free Agent Frenzy actually feeling frenetic, for once, the Stars are in a unique place. While the forward corps is poised to look all but identical, the defense will undergo a significant update, with Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev, Jani Hakanpää and (possibly) Nils Lundkvist all poised to depart.
That means Dallas needs at least one more top-four player on the right side of the defense, with Miro Heiskanen and Alex Petrovic presumptively holding down the other two spots.
It also means Dallas needs at least one more player on the left side of the defense, unless you think Lian Bichsel is going to win and hold a spot on the blue line. And even if he doesn’t, the Stars will need a seventh defenseman if Petrovic is playing regularly (which I’m not convinced he will).
This is all going to be outdated very shortly, so I’ll try to keep things big picture:
With Chris Tanev going back to Canada (I think there’s a preference for country, there) for a six-year deal in Toronto that Dallas was never going to risk, Matt Roy is the best UFA option available for a top-four spot on the right side of the defense. The problem is, most teams know that. Roy is younger than Tanev, and he’s coming from LA’s system, so his numbers look defensively elite. Maybe that’s because he is, but regardless, it’s hard to see the Stars outbidding everyone for him, unless Roy wants to come to Dallas (or a contender in general).
Addendum: As Sean Shapiro noted today, Tanev’s decision to stay in Canada was likely a product of something called a “departure tax,” which would’ve required him to pay a hefty tax bill if he’d become a U.S. resident. Lots of stuff I didn’t know in here, so check it out.
Addendum 2: I would’ve expected Dallas to be able to match this 6-year, $5.75 AAV Matt Roy deal, so the guess is he wasn’t interested in going to Dallas and/or they didn’t want to offer that contract to a player about to hit 30. Wouldn’t blame the player for choosing a team with less travel after spending time in California, but that seals Dallas’s fate in terms of finding a true first-choice RHD in the UFA market. Don’t discount Nill doing something more patiently, though.
RHD Update: Dallas has signed Matt Dumba. He’s not much good anymore, but maybe his mobility looks better on a good team with a fresh start? The two-year term at $3.75 million is tough to swallow, though. It’s hard to see much upside on the player at this point in his career, but maybe the Stars get lucky and he gets rejuvenated on a good team. That’s what you have to hope for.
Another RHD Update: Dallas has reportedly signed Ilya Lyubushkin to play Jani Hakanpaa in their latest production of He’s a Big, Right-handed Defenseman, At Least. And while he was originally reported to have signed for three years at $3.33 million, it sounds like the actual deal is for $3.25 million over two years. That’s still a bit much for a career third-pairing player at 30 years old with no upside, though. Hard to feel good about this one, but it smacks of “got to replace Ryan Suter’s minutes and PK-ness.”
Final RHD Update: The Stars have indeed re-signed Nils Lundkvist to a $1.25 million deal for next year. I guess that means the Lundkvist camp didn’t see any better options out there than a team with a coach who would rather play a man short than with Lundkvist taking regular turns in the rotation. Not exactly a boost of confidence for Lundkvist, I’d imagine.
LHD Update: The Stars signed Brendan Smith to a one-year, $1 million contract. That smells more like a 6/7 D solution than anything else, to me. Not much upside left at 35 years old, though, unless he pulls a Freaky Friday with his brother Reilly.
Brandon Montour is going to Seattle, and that’s another player that always seemed destined to go somewhere other than Dallas. The Cup ring inflation is real (though Montour was very good last year), and he seems like just the sort of player who could start to disappoint by year 3 of that contract. Quick thought: Does that mean Adam Larsson would be more available than he’s been in the past?
Elliotte Friedman still has William Carrier going to Dallas. I could see it. I could also see Michael Amadio fitting.
Update: Frank Seravelli reported that Carrier is signing in Carolina for six years at $2 million per season. That’s a lot of term for a career bottom-six player, but the AAV should be good value nonetheless.
Sam Steel’s return for slightly above his qualifying offer is a reminder than not qualifying players isn’t the same as cutting them outright. If Nils Lundkvist doesn’t have better options, he may well choose to be effectively a 7th defenseman in Dallas, even if the contract ends up pretty close to what a QO would’ve been. Something I should’ve clarified better yesterday.
Matt Duchene took basically the same deal to come back to Dallas. That’s a huge testament to how much Duchene wanted to stay, because he certainly left both dollars and term on the table to do so. This is a team players want to play on, which is something that is much truer now than it was 12 years ago.
I could see Dallas getting another top-six forward type with Pavelski departing. It would take the pressure off Stankoven and Bourque, as well as give them some options if Seguin and Benn don’t produce quite as much this year.
Wouldn’t shock me if the market for backup goalies is softer than expected and Scott Wedgewood returns to Dallas, but he deserves to get the best deal he can find.
Update: Bruce LeVine also seems to be hinting that Dallas could bring back a former Star, which suggests Jack Campbell is a backup option (just a guess) for Dallas. At league minimum and without the pressure of starting in Toronto or Edmonton, I could see some upside. I could also see some downside!
Update 2: Wedgewood went to Nasvhille for two years at $1.5 million, while the Stars brought in Casey DeSmith for Wedgewood’s old $1 Million cap hit–but for three years. DeSmith is a serviceable goalie who compares well to Wedgewood on paper. No reason why he shouldn’t be worth the saved cap hit.
Additional thought: Nashville is really bent on taking the Vegas route to success, eh? Barry Trotz is selling some very good (and older) players on a big jump. Personally, I could see this all crashing and burning, but it’ll be fun to watch Juuse Saros play with an actual top-six group in front of him. The Central Division will be more interesting next year.
These are not sourced reports, just educated guesses from what I’ve read and heard. Enjoy Canada Day!