Pete DeBoer on Using Analytics, Misha Donskov’s Ascent, and Whether the Stars Can Go on Another Second Half Hot Streak
I went for a walk in the snow this morning, and I hope you got a chance to do the same over the last day or two. It’s rare that we get Weather In DFW that isn’t also a massive danger of some kind, but a decent-though-not-disastrous snowfall seems like the best-case scenario in that department.
Of course, it’s also going to get extra-cold tonight, so maybe I’m jinxing things. The important thing is, I went outside when it was cold, and when you do that, you have to brag about it to as many people as you can. Or, at least, use that as an excuse to use a bad picture you took as the header for an article.
***
During morning media availability in Montreal today, Pete Deboer was asked about working with Stars’ Assistant Coach Misha Donskov. Both DeBoer and Donskov will be on the bench as assistants to Head Coach Jon Cooper for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off next month, with Donskov being the only assistant not to be an NHL head coach, as Bruce Cassidy and Rick Tocchet are the other two assistants.
Donskov’s background is pretty fascinating, as he spent time in coaching, management, and and even as “the analytics guy” for Team Canada at the IIHF World Championships on DeBoer’s staff in 2015. DeBoer said that he had asked Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon if Donskov could help with some pre-scouting and other things in the 2020 bubble, and their relationship appears to have stayed strong, with Donskov following DeBoer to Vegas shortly after winning a Stanley Cup with the Golden Knights in 2023. Donskov and his family also run a Hockey Development business founded by his late father, Paul.
Donskov made a move that is much rarer in hockey circles, moving from the front office to the coaching staff. But then, given how Donskov was one of the key voices in Vegas’s enormously successful expansion draft, it’s little wonder that he has earned enough respect to make such a move. Donskov deserves a lot more ink than I have time for here, but we’ll hopefully get a chance to do that later this season.
As an aside, it wouldn’t shock me if Donskov was one of the key figures who has brought DeBoer more on board with heeding what underlying numbers have to say. At least, that was my sense after listening to DeBoer’s answer to a question about his “buy in on analytics” this morning, which I found pretty interesting. DeBoer said that he’s “much more bought into [analytics] now” than he was five or so years ago, and the way the information is packaged has been a big reason for that.
“It’s because we found a way to take all that information they were dumping on us five years ago,” said DeBoer, “and now we’ve got it where we’re getting information that we can actually use…that’s important to us. Five years ago, it was almost like a dump, ‘here it is’.” And I think every team has worked hard…to pare that giant file of data down to workable numbers important for your analysis.”
When asked which numbers are most important to the Stars, DeBoer said they lean on “a lot of them,” and he used breakouts as one example.
“We’ll probably have that pared down to ten categories from thirty,” said DeBoer. “You know, we look at all the ones that are important to us, those eight or ten, right? who’s their first touch on breakouts, who’s exiting with possession, are they actually weak side, strong side, you know. In that subcategory of things that are important to you in those areas, that’s what’s been the process those last five years, taking those 30 subcategories, and getting them down.”
DeBoer also cautioned against overreacting to small groups of data, which I think you can hear in his responses to media questions about the Stars’s hiccups earlier int he season.
“I think you have to get to the 30-game mark, 25-30 games before you can really start to rely on it, too,” said DeBoer. “I think when you’re looking at small sample sizes of five-to-ten games, it’s dangerous.”
The last question was particularly revealing, with DeBoer acknowledging something that few coaches five or ten years ago ever would have done. The question was about tactical decisions, with the media member saying, “If something goes against your eye test, would you be more tending to trust [analytics]?” And DeBoer didn’t hesitate in his answer: “For sure now, yeah.” That’s a pretty humble response for any NHL coach, let alone one as respected as DeBoer.
Now, it’s important to pause for a moment and acknowledge that DeBoer is hardly going to tell us everything about his coaching staff’s decision-making process. There are surely many numbers they are never going to tell us about, lest they betray some of their key tactics and approaches to other teams. This is not a comprehensive defense by DeBoer of the employment of large samples of data in day-to-day coaching, but simply a brief example of how he has grown to trust what such data can do, when presented and implemented intelligently.
Still, it’s pretty fascinating to hear a well-respected NHL coach like DeBoer speak this candidly about a subject that was seen as almost taboo for NHL insiders a decade or two ago. All NHL coaches tend to be confident and to take a strong sense of pride in their work. That’s true of just about anymore making millions of dollars in their profession, come to that, but it is interesting to hear a coach say that, as much pride as he and his staff take in their own judgments, they also want to make sure they’re not missing larger trends just because of what’s happened recently.
It’s a larger conversation, of course. NHL games are won by work ethic and emotional investment as much as by tactics and planning, on a night-to-night basis. But it’s a lot easier to have your players’ hard work pay off when you’re putting them in the best positions to succeed, and it sounds like this coaching staff isn’t shy about the fact that they’re willing to look at whatever numbers they can in order to help their players get just that little extra advantage.
***
Lastly, take a moment to check out my piece in D Magazine this morning about whether the Stars have another second-half surge in them this season, as they did last year.
A week or two ago, the chances of Dallas getting that hot again seemed unlikely. But with their recent eight-game points streak, suddenly everything seems back on the table again. Anyway, give it a read, and go play in the snow if you still have any lying around.