Oskar Bäck Likely to Make NHL Debut, Mavrik Bourque Likely to Miss Dallas Stars’ Opening Night with Injury

After all the speculation about the Stars’ 13th forward this season, it looks like they’ll be starting the campaign with only twelve of their ideal choices.

In Peter DeBoer’s first press conference since his appendectomy, the Stars’ head coach said Wyatt Johnston is “probable” to play in Nashville on Thursday. He then paused a bit longer before saying that Mavrik Bourque is “doubtful” for that same game. And if I’m going to read into his intonation this morning (which I’m sure you’ll be able to watch for yourself on Victory+ when the video gets uploaded), then I’d go so far as to say that he used the word “doubtful” only because “absolutely no chance” isn’t a technical term NHL coaches use when talking about player availability three days in advance.

And, sure enough, the Stars announced that Bourque will be on the “Injured, Non-Roster” list to start the season. As of now, the Stars have not recalled another forward, although they could easily do so Thursday morning, if needed, if the versatile Brendan Smith isn’t considered sufficient insurance.

Now introducing our Opening Night Stars #TexasHockey

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 7, 2024

I’m not gonna start speculating too specifically on player injuries before the season even gets going, but it’s worth noting that both Johnston and Bourque were working out on a different rink from the main practice this morning, and that Johnston then joined the last portion of practice and took his spot on the top power play unit with Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Miro Heiskanen. That bolsters the presumption that Johnston will be available for Thursday, as whatever he’s been dealing with doesn’t prevent him from being in the thick of a power play drill.

Bourque, as you may recall, missed a couple of days during the preseason before getting into the final preseason game against the St. Louis Blues last Thursday, only to leave the game after one shift in the second period and not return. And while he was termed to be dealing with something “minor” according to the coaching staff when they spoke to the media last weekend, it appears that “minor” is not the same as “inconsequential.” We are perhaps parsing things more heavily than we ought to, but the point of all this is to say that, whatever Bourque is dealing with, it is something with which they are being very careful.

If Johnston is able to go on Thursday, then your Opening Night lineup could very well look like the below guess:

Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Wyatt Johnston
Mason Marchment-Matt Duchene-Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn-Sam Steel-Logan Stankoven
Colin Blackwell-Oskar Bäck-Evgenii Dadonov

Miro Heiskanen-Matt Dumba
Thomas Harley-Ilya Lubushkin
Esa Lindell-Nils Lundkvist
Healthy scratch: Brendan Smith

Jake Oettinger
Casey DeSmith

As we talked about at length a couple days ago, Sam Steel’s versatility means he is often the simplest person to move up the lineup when a centerman goes down. Interestingly enough, Colin Blackwell told me this morning that Steel has a lot of Jason Dickinson qualities, such as being in the right position on every play. Blackwell played with Dickinson in Chicago last year, and he said that both Steel and Dickinson have that quality of making good reads that get used as positive examples when the team is reviewing film. Steel quickly earned DeBoer’s permanent trust last year after initially rotating out with other healthy scratches, and Dickinson was similarly useful as both a dependable player in the lower lines and top-six spackle, when needed. In any case, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Bäck make his NHL debut while Steel moves onto the third* line with Benn and Stankoven.

*it’s worth noting that “third” or “second” are going to be very relative terms this year when it comes to the middle six forwards, but I’m tentatively planning to call Duchene’s line with Seguin and Marchment the “second” line, based on their more veteran status compared to the presumptive Benn-Bourque-Stankoven trio. We’ll see how the ice time shakes out, though.

I asked DeBoer today about what Bäck brings in particular, and this was his response: “His game isn’t a game that’s gonna pop off the screen at you, isn’t gonna make you jump out of your seat. It’s just solid, safe, smart. I love the big body in the middle of the ice, I love the faceoff ability, the penalty kill ability. There’s just a lot of tools in that toolbox.”

While it’s certainly true that Bäck doesn’t appear likely to break any NHL rookie scoring records, he does bring enough versatility to be exceptionally useful in the bottom six, and that’s got a value of its own. When looking at which borderline player deserves to start in the NHL out of training camp, it’s easy to get fixated on goals or offensive potential, but I think the players who are likely to make a meaningful offensive impact are already on the roster (or will be when they get healthy). That means the coaches were looking to a solve a very specific problem: who could fill in best for a solid NHLer like Steel if he moved up the lineup to replace an injured player?

Yes, Matěj Blümel and Kole Lind are probably more likely to score a goal than Bäck in a vacuum (though actually nobody could score a goal in a vacuum if we’re being technical here), but the structure of this team dictates a lot of its success, and it looks like the coaches have a lot of confidence in Bäck’s ability to reinforce that structure by sliding in to that 4C spot when Steel (or Evgenii Dadonov) moves up the lineup, and that’s why he won the spot, and good on him for doing so. An NHL debut is always a special day, and Oskar Bäck looks likely to be skating his rookie lap in Nashville on Thursday. That’ll be a cool moment.

On that same topic, I also had a chance to chat with Dadonov this morning about his versatility in the lineup, and Dadonov emphasized the fact that the team structure really is similar regardless of what line you’re playing on, so he doesn’t have to change much whether playing on the first or fourth line or anywhere in between. He also talked about some of the small adjustments you have to make when playing left vs. right wing with regard to cutting toward or away from the blue line on your forehand vs. backhand, but the bottom line is, he’s comfortable on either side, and they each have their advantages (such as the better shooting angle when coming in from your off-wing).

Dadonov’s ability to be comfortable on either side is a great complement to Steel’s ability to play center or wing, and those two players’ combined flexibility make it even clearer, I think, why Bäck is the ideal forward to have around to fill in. If Dadonov moves up, then Steel can move to wing and allow Bäck to stay in his natural center position. If Steel moves up, then Bäck just slides in next to Blackwell, where he played for four games this preseason, with Dadonov on the other wing. It’s pretty darn seamless, in that way. And given how much we’ve talked about the Stars’ depth this year, it’s only fitting that they’ll likely be required to make use of that depth in their first game of the season.