Monday Morning Dallas Stars Update: Mason Marchment’s Projected Return, the Penalty Kill, and the Pluses and Minuses of Plus/Minus

Good morning! It is very cold outside, and snow seems likely on Thursday. But the upshot of all this is that you won’t have to drive through it to see the Stars play, because they’re on the road until January 16, when they play the Montreal Canadiens at home.

One question about that date revolves around Mason Marchment, who took a puck to the face against Minnesota on December 27. The last couple of times we’ve asked Pete DeBoer about Marchment, he’s used two phrases germane to our discussion: The phrase “week-to-week,” and the mention that Marchment’s recovery timeline would be similar to Matt Dumba’s healing from his own upper-body injury that has necessitated a full face shield upon his return.

So, if indeed the injuries are similar—we still don’t know exactly what Dumba’s was or how it happened, though the full face shield narrows it down quite a bit—then when would Marchment’s potential return be?

In Dumba’s case, he played against Calgary on December 8 before suffering an off-ice injury at some point before their next practice. He returned to action against Buffalo on December 31. So, he was out just over three weeks, with 23 days between games.

For Marchment, three weeks from his injury on 12/27 would be January 17. The Stars play on January 16 at home, then January 18 in Colorado, then back at home the following day to begin a three-day homestand on January 19 against Detroit.

So, if his recovery goes according to projections we’ve heard so far, I’d look for Marchment to be back not too long after the Stars finish their current road trip. But with no practices at home until at least January 15, we may not know whether Marchment is skating or not, unless one of you wants to pay for me to go to Canada to ask about Marchment every single day until I am expelled from the country. I accept personal checks and Finnish chocolate.

As in so many years past, January is going to be a heavy, apocalyptic schedule for Dallas. Did you know that “apocalypse” (from the Greek wordἀποκάλυψις) means “unveiling” or “uncovering”? The Dallas Stars play 15 games in 31 days in January, so much will be revealed by the time the Four Nations Face-off rolls around in February. But the good news is that Marchment may be back before the month ends.

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The Stars’ penalty kill has been outstanding once again under Pete DeBoer’s coaching staff this year, with Alain Nasreddine continuing to roll out an extremely effective unit shorthanded despite losing a lot of their most-used players from penalty kills past.

The Stars are 6th in PK% this season, after coming in 5th last season and 3rd the year before that. They’ve been really, really good, and Jake Oettinger has been a big part of that.

Among the 24 goalies in the NHL who have spent at least 100 minutes on the penalty kill this season, Oettinger ranks solidly in all of the biggest categories: 9th in Sv%, 10th in high-danger Sv%. He hasn’t had to be Superman (AKA Connor Hellebuyck) on the kill, but he has cashed in the efforts of the Stars’ skaters effectively enough. And that’s a penalty kill that is already suppressing chances 15% better than the average NHL team, as you can see here:

That’s some really good work by all involved. And if the other end of special teams can just get going, the Stars should look every bit the Cup contender they were properly billed as, coming into the season.

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The Stars have a +28 goal-differential this season. They are also tied with the Kings for the lowest number of goals allowed per game overall. Both clubs have given up just 2.5 goals per game through 38 contests, although Dallas has scored 3.21 goals each night, compared to the Kings’ 3.11.

By comparison, last year’s Stars scored 3.63 goals per game while allowing 2.85 per night. This year’s Stars are scoring a fair bit less, but they’re also getting much better goaltending than last year’s version, which you might be able to chalk up largely to Jake Oettinger’s better health and performance.

Of course, those numbers matter far less than what happens after Game 82, but it’s promising nonetheless. Dallas isn’t quite on pace with their 2nd-in-the-NHL goal differential of +64 last year (behind only the Florida Panthers, who put up a +68), but they have found a way to keep the ship sailing in the right direction despite losing a couple of very important rowers. Or, sailors? Deckhands? I don’t know how boats work, and I’m not convinced anyone does.

Does that team-wide plus/minus actually matter all that much, though? Well, while last year’s eventual Cup winners in Florida had the best goal-differential in the league, Vegas was 9th the year before, when they won the Cup. That 2022-23 season was the same year that Jim Montgomery led the Bruins to a record-setting season with an absurd +128 goal-differential. The team in second-place that year? The Dallas Stars, way back at +67.

In fact, having the best goal-differential in the league is far from a guarantee of eventual glory. Here are the teams with the best goal-differentials of the last ten seasons:

2023-24: Florida Panthers +68
2022-23: Boston Bruins +128(!)
2021-22: Florida Panthers +94
2020-21: Vegas Golden Knights +67 (shortened season)
2019-20: Boston Bruins +53 (shortened season)
2018-19: Tampa Bay Lightning +103
2017-18: Tampa Bay Lightning +60
2016-17: Washington Capitals +81
2015-16: Washington Capitals +59
2014-15: New York Rangers +60

So, only Florida managed to turn their league-leading differential into a Cup of the squads on that list.

I’m not saying the Winnipeg Jets’ current +43 is necessarily meaningless, but it does seem to be the case that teams have traditionally found it much easier to pile up goals in the regular season than to carry that success into the playoffs, as that Boston team found out to its detriment two years ago. Climbing the mountain is hard no matter what you’ve done before. In fact, if you wanted to construct any kind of narrative from the last ten years, it might be that teams have more often won the Cup a season or two after having led the league in goal-differential (Washington in 2018, Tampa in 2020, and Vegas in 2023) rather than in the same season, as Florida just did.

Maybe the Stars get hot down the stretch again and start racking up more goals against teams who start to check out of their seasons, like they did last year after trading for Chris Tanev. After all, did you remember that the Stars actually had a worse goal-differential on this same day last year than they do now?

It’s true: one year ago, the Stars were 22-11-5 with a +18 plus/minus as a team. This year, they’re 24-13-1 with a +28. And in both seasons, through the same 38 games, the Stars have piled up the exact same total of 49 points.

Last year, the Stars put up a blistering 30-10-4 record over their final 44 games to wind up at 52-21-9, one point shy of the President’s Trophy. Such a run is unlikely even for the best of teams, but the good news is, the Stars don’t have to do that. They just need to stay the course and avoid the nonsense of the Wild Card. And with reinforcements of one kind of another all but certain to arrive before the Trade Deadline, that should be more than possible.