Jason Robertson, Connor McDavid, and the Need for Power Plays
Let me take you back to a Jason Robertson moment I remember fondly:
not sure how i feel about this pic.twitter.com/TxwCFK8zNf
— Robert Tiffin (@RobertTiffin) November 24, 2021
This was from a 2021 November game against the Oilers in which Dallas beat Edmonton 4-1, snapping Connor McDavid’s 17-game points streak to open the season in the process. Dallas received five power plays to Edmonton’s two, and you could see a desperate McDavid attempting to draw a late penalty against Jason Robertson, which (if memory serves) was successful. Robertson was sent to the box in the third period for interference on McDavid. It wouldn’t matter, and by the way, Robertson would score a power play goal of his own in this one, beating Stuart Skinner’s glove hand with ease.
That McDavid “ack!” moment further back stands out in my mind because it was the sort of cheap desperation that comes from a player needing power plays. Whether McDavid was pulling this sort of nonsense in order to help his team “Get back in the game” or, more cynically, just to ensure he could continue his points streak, I’ll leave for you to decide. But the fact of the matter is that Edmonton has made their living on the power play for years now, so it’s little wonder that the organization quickly pivoted to working the officials through the media in hopes of pressuring the officials to make some calls in order to refute their argument. It’s not surprising, and many other coaches have done it. But, much like Adin Hill replacing Logan Thompson or Nate MacKinnon cross-checking Roope Hintz’s wrist, it does seem like a sign of desperation from a team that can feel the series about to shift.
Edmonton will get more power plays, surely. Dallas has gone two games now where they’ve essentially only had to kill one Edmonton advantage (with the second one on Saturday coming at the very end of the game). That won’t last, because players make mistakes. But Dallas is good enough to weather Edmonton even with some power plays. The real story here is that Edmonton needs the power plays, still. They might have eventually grabbed Game 1 after 4+ periods of even-up hockey with Dallas’s power play hell-bent on finding every possible way to unsuccessfully get set up in the zone, but that’s not a repeatable formula. The Oilers’ recipe for success is to put their best players on the ice all at the same time and get results from it.
Jason Robertson also needs power plays, but in a different sense. It is true that he has 13 points this postseason, tied with Wyatt Johnston for second on the team. And it is also true that Robertson has seven points at even-strength this postseason, also tied for second on the club.
But that’s not enough for a player like Robertson, who has been pigeonholed by some as a points-producer, a compiler, the Mark Teixera of hockey players. The downside of filling the Brett Hull role on your team is to be ridiculed (like Hull often was) the minute your points stop winning games. Even the occasional reminder that Robertson is 6’3″ and 200lbs is rarely enough to dissuade people from the notion that you shy away from physicality, that you can’t handle the intensity of the postseason:
Jason Robertson, in case you forgot pic.twitter.com/vsg1Fsj8ng
— Robert Tiffin (@RobertTiffin) May 27, 2024
These playoffs have been extremely close, for Dallas. All but a couple of their playoff games have come down to a single goal one way or the other before empty-netters sealed it. And Robertson hasn’t looked like the 40-goal scorer he was for two seasons prior to this one very often. He’s warranted some criticism for not being dangerous enough in the offensive zone, absolutely. Of course, it’s also worth remembering that some assists aren’t in lieu of scoring goals, but in faithful service to that same objective:
Jason Robertson feeds Miro Heiskanen for his 5th goal of the playoffs .
The Dallas Stars lead 2-1 in Game 5.
(: @BR_OpenIce)pic.twitter.com/3dFrtYwhLC— BarDown (@BarDown) May 16, 2024
Nonetheless, it’s also true that Robertson hasn’t been as dominant with his underlying numbers. During the season, Robertson was towards the top of the Stars’ expected goals leaderboard and chance-creation and prevention metrics. In the playoffs, he’s been either mid-pack or near the bottom, and while that’s somewhat understandable given the level of competition he’s faced, it’s also not good enough for a top-line player. Robertson has been preventing the Stars from losing games, but other players have had to step up to win them. That’s the price of setting such a profoundly high bar for himself.
***
The playoffs haven’t been one linear progression for Jason Robertson, though. You may have forgotten, given the tumultuous nature of the opening series, but Robertson did score three goals against Vegas, including this game-winner to give the Stars’ a 3-2 lead in the first round:
THE DALLAS STARS RESPONDED TO THE KNIGHTS HITTING TYLER SEGUIN WITH A POWER PLAY GOAL
JASON ROBERTSON GOT REVENGE pic.twitter.com/cg4DkRZdjy— Dallas Nation (@TheDallasNation) May 2, 2024
And against Colorado, Robertson piled up seven assists in six games. He also had an assist against Edmonton the other night despite his two posts in overtime, so it’s not as though he’s cursed. He just hasn’t been shooting and beating goaltenders regularly.
That assist, by the way, came as a direct result of making a hard move to hold off a defender to get a shot off from the middle of the ice, which bounced right to Seguin. It’s not necessarily Nathan MacKinnon stuff, but it also isn’t giving up and peeling away toward the boards. He’s making decisions about risk and reward all the time, like everyone else, and sometimes he’s pushing just hard enough to make good things happen.
And to condescend to the “SHOOOOOT” crowd for a moment, Robertson is averaging two shots on goal per game this postseason, whereas he’s normally closer to three per game during the regular season. Yes, he’s note shooting quite as much, and it’s not totally a power play thing, as the Stars have gotten close to the same number of chances on the power play each night as they were in the regular season. My personal theory is that they’ve just been facing stronger penalty kills in the postseason that are game-planning for Robertson, so he’s been setting up other players instead of shooting the puck into blocks.
Robertson shoots when there is good reason to, and his best seasons (thus far) in goal-scoring have featured a lot of tallies that look just like this one, where he’s able to cut into the ice between the circles and rip a shot past a goaltender high:
Jason Robertson with a power play goal. #TexasHockey 6, #SJSharks 3 pic.twitter.com/D5TRScBaWt
— TEAL TOWN USA – A San Jose Sharks Podcast (@TEALTOWNUSA) March 27, 2024
This is his sweet spot, as you can see from his shooting locations this season on the power play:
I’m always hesitant to use shots as a proxy for effort or will or “willingness to go to the middle of the ice” and junk, because players can’t just mash the “shoot” button at any given time, Craig Smith notwithstanding. Giving up possession for a shot is a calculated decision, and one that becomes more magnified in the playoffs, where every bad decision could be the one that loses you a game, or even a series. For a 24-year-old who was in the Hart conversation just last year, it’s mind-boggling how far the Stars have gotten without Robertson having really been The Problem for an opponent thus far.
But it’s also true that Robertson hasn’t been The Problem for his own team, either. He’s been playing the most 5v5 forward minutes of any Star, and he’s been breaking even in 5v5 plus/minus despite having the lowest shooting percentage of any top-nine forward. A lot of Robertson’s defensive work has been of the quieter sort, particularly since Roope Hintz disappeared from his line, but there’s a reason he got Selke votes last season. And if you watch him from shift to shift, you’ll typically see his excellent and responsible positioning, albeit of the safer sort that only rarely leads to rush chances for his team (which makes sense, given the dangerous speedsters he’s been on the ice against in this series and last).
But Robertson’s version of “struggling” is being at 50% of the on-ice goals scored (or breaking even in plus/minus, if you prefer), whereas the Oilers are in the exact same position as the Stars with McDavid being at 70% of the 5v5 goals scored when he’s on the ice. That’s because players like Warren Foegele are minus-nine at 5v5, and Darnell Nurse is minus-eight. Those sorts of numbers can completely submarine McDavid’s plus-eight at 5v5, and they have, at times. Whereas Dallas has just two players who have been on the ice for more goals against than for at 5v5: Esa Lindell (-4) and Craig Smith (-1). Dallas is a deep team that can wait for a new hero to step up any given night, whereas Edmonton simply has deep holes to fill, and it often has to do so by shoveling its crown jewels into the gaping chasm.
That’s why the Oilers need the power play. Their top guys, as incredible as they are, can only make up for their deficits at even-strength rather than outpace them. McDavid might have wanted that November 2021 power play for selfish reasons, but those reasons overlap with his team’s, so it doesn’t really matter. Jason Robertson certainly benefits from the power play, but he’s not causing problems for Dallas without production at 5-on-4. He’s preventing problems, in fact, which is more than good enough when you can get big goals from Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, or a half-dozen other names in a pinch.
But while “good enough” may have gotten Robertson this far, the games do not get easier as May turns into June. Robertson could have won Game 1 multiple times, but he was an inch away from being able to drag his team to victory. It’s time for a great young player to follow Wyatt Johnston’s lead and become simply a great players when it matters most.
Yes, the Stars have a lot of weapons, but it’s going to be Robertson’s turn to step up again any day now. He might as well cut in line.