If (When) Miro Heiskanen Returns Tonight for Game 4, Who Comes Out of the Lineup?

Let's look at the options

Update at 11:01am: Pete DeBoer said this morning that he “anticipates” Miro Heiskanen will play tonight. He also confirmed that going with seven defensemen is an option for tonight.

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In case you missed it yesterday, there was some buzz about Miro Heiskanen’s possibly returning tonight for Game 4 in Dallas. The most explicit such buzz was probably from Nick Kypreos:

As far as more grounded data, here’s what we know: Miro Heiskanen had a “scheduled day off” on Monday, according to Pete Deboer. That’s one of the first times I’ve seen Heiskanen not skating in those sorts of situations, as he’s joined the bulk of morning skates, practices, and so forth during the last six weeks, since he began skating in Frisco when the Stars were in Seattle.

DeBoer also said at an optional practice yesterday (Monday) that he is still standing by what he said before the second round: that Miro Heiskanen will play some time during this series.

DeBoer’s words exactly: "I'm still sticking by what I projected, that we would see him in the second round."

We should find out shortly here (I’m sitting in the AAC as I write this) if the Stars are going to announce his return for tonight or keep it more mysterious. Generally, they haven’t been that cloak-and-dagger about these things, but I’m loath to assume anything this deep into the playoffs. Or at any point in the playoffs, frankly.

But for now, we’re going to take DeBoer at his word and prepare for Heiskanen to return in one of the next two, three*, or four* games. So let’s look at a couple of the options the Stars have available to them in terms of how they would adjust the lineup if Heiskanen does indeed return.

Option 1: Seven Defensemen

This is something DeBoer confirmed toward the beginning of the playoffs that was on the table for whenever Heiskanen returned. It’s also an appealing option because it would give the Stars some insurance, rather than having to load up Heiskanen with regular minutes in his first game back.

And that’s something DeBoer has reiterated lately: the Stars aren’t gonna play Heiskanen 26 minutes a night in his first game back. Or at least, that won’t be the plan. But if you remember way back to one of the first times DeBoer was asked about this, he also admitted that it would be hard not to lean on Heiskanen if he were back in the lineup, just because of the type of player he is.

So if the Stars went with seven defensemen to basically cycle Heiskanen into the lineup while still having their standard three defense pairings that have gotten them this far, then who would come out?

My guess here is that both of Colin Blackwell and Oskar Bäck would come out of the lineup in this case, with Mikael Granlund moving up to the first PK pairing with Sam Steel, and Mikko Rantanen cycling more frequently into the fourth line while double-shifting, as he’s done recently.

That would mean Heiskanen could play with whichever defense partner made sense at a given time. Given his ability to play on the right side as a left shot, that gives them a lot of flexibility, which is why it’s probably the most logical option.

Still, purposely going without a full fourth line would be a departure for DeBoer in the playoffs. And while he does tend to roll the top nine when the team is trailing (which makes sense, when you need offense), you still like having that fourth line to use when the other lines need a breather, or when you need some extra energy when the game is starting to drag a bit.

And with Rantanen’s ability to take those extra minutes, that’s less of a problem for this team than it used to be.

Option 2: Defenseman for Defenseman

The other option, of course, is one-for-one: Heiskanen comes into the lineup in place of a defenseman.

And if you listened to Alex Petrovic yesterday after the optional practice, he seemed pretty effusive about how big of a help Heiskanen would be when he came into the lineup. You can either read that as a veteran simply being properly deferential about a top-tier player who he knows is likely to result in his coming back out of the lineup, or you can read that as a pre-emptive bit of humility, showing he’s more excited for the team’s improved fortunes than his own presumptive scratching.

Mark Lazerus certainly saw some extra optimism in Petrovic’s words, so make of that what you will. Here’s one of the Petrovic quotes, for reference:

“Bringing him back in the lineup, it’s going to be huge,” Petrovic said. “Those guys, while he was out, did a fantastic job. They know how to handle that extra load. Having Miro back’s going to be massive. He’s an All-Star in this league. It’s a huge addition.”

That’s a lot to read into a pretty standard press conference, but Petrovic sounded confident that Heiskanen would be back, not that he might be back. You could read that as simple alignment with DeBoer’s similar confidence in Heiskanen’s imminent return.

Regardless of whether Heiskanen returns tonight or not, Petrovic is, by far, the most likely player to come out of the lineup. Here is my reasoning for this:

1. Pete DeBoer has not healthy-scratched Lian Bichsel a single time this year.

2. If Miro Heiskanen comes into the lineup, Thomas Harley is the partner he’s played with the most. That means Ilya Lyubushkin needs another partner to play with.

3. Lyubushkin has a similarly steady profile to Petrovic, so he can easily slide down and play third-pairing minutes with Bichsel. As good as the Bichsel-Petrovic pairing has been, they’ve been pretty heavily sheltered, too. Lyubushkin should be able to fill that role without any trouble, and he’s averaged a lot higher minutes than Petrovic all year. He’s also been a big part of the penalty kill, while Petrovic doesn’t play much at all on special teams.

4. Cody Ceci is not going anywhere. People keep asking about this because of his negative shot-differential, but that Lindell-Ceci pairing has been a go-to defense pairing against other teams’ top lines, and Ceci is only -1 in this series in terms of goals (2 for, 3 against) at 5-on-5. He also has been playing on the top PK pairing with Esa Lindell

5. Alex Petrovic is also the player who played the fewest regular season games. So even on a pure “depth chart” basis, he is the easiest player for a coach to scratch.

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What will actually happen tonight? We’ll find out soon. Thanks for asking, though.