How the Dallas Stars Built a 2-1 Lead vs. the Minnesota Wild, and How They Can Capitalize on It

It's a little more complex than just special teams

After Game 4, this series is going to feel radically different than it does now. Dallas amassed a 3-1 lead in 2016, and that’s a big enough lead in the playoffs that comebacks from that deficit merit their own Wikipedia article.

Conversely, 2-2 series is mathematically even, but if the Wild also get someone like Mats Zuccarello back en route to evening the series, momentum will surely feel like it’s swinging their way, even with Dallas coming home for Game 5. This is, in fact, exactly what the Stars did to Minnesota in 2023, when they were trailing 2-1 in the series on the road, only to even the series in Game 4 before running the table in Games 5 and 6.

Tomorrow has enough trouble of its own, though. Today, let’s take a look at just what’s happened in a series Dallas now leads despite getting blown out in Game 1.

Special teams, sure

The Wild have scored three power play goals in the series, while Dallas has scored five. But you know that Minnesota scored two of their three power play goals in Game 1, when Mats Zuccarello was still on the top unit. Since then, the Wild have scored just one power play goal, and that was by the second unit the other night at the very end of the power play.

The raw numbers aren’t so bad: Minnesota has 40 shot attempts at 5-on-4, and Dallas has 43. However, less than half of Minnesota’s shots have made it on net (just 19), while 30 of Dallas’s 43 attempts have been put on net, on account of coming from generally better (i.e. less blockable) locations.

The underlying numbers tell an even bleaker story: Dallas’s power play is generating dangerous shots while the Wild’s simply hasn’t been able to get interior. Other than Joel Eriksson Ek’s two goals off feeds from below the goal line in Game 1, the top unit has largely been kept to the outside, as you can see below:

HockeyViz.com