How Much Do the Stars' Final 11 Games Really Matter?

We've been here before

“I hear home ice advantage is good.”

On March 26, 2025, the Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. Jake Oettinger made 41 saves, and Jason Robertson scored his second hat trick against Stuart Skinner in ten months.

It was the Stars’ third straight win, and they would follow it up with four more victories in a seven-game winning streak that was quickly forgotten about on account of the next seven games.

But after that win in Edmonton in the Stars’ 71st game of the 2024-25 season, they were ensconced in second place in the Central Division, well behind the top team, but also with a five-point lead and a game in hand on the third-place team:

NHL Standings as of 3/26/2025

That five-point lead might have seemed precarious at the time, but the NHL’s loser point really does make it nigh impossible to make up this kind of ground, as Colorado found out. Despite Dallas’s eventual seven-game losing streak to close out the regular season, Colorado only closed that five-point gap to four by game 82.

Thus, Dallas got home-ice advantage in the first round, and 18,000 Dallas fans got to see Mikko Rantanen do something incredible as a result.

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Through 71 games this year, the Stars are in almost an identical position as they were last year: another five-point lead and game in hand on the third-place team, and another runaway Presidents’ Trophy team atop the Central.

NHL Standings as of 3/25/2026

Nothing is guaranteed, and that’s even truer if the Stars continue to play as poorly as they have for much of their last couple games. But on balance, the Stars are exceedingly likely to finish in the same spot as they did last year, and to start the playoffs with home-ice advantage as a result.

Last night, Glen Gulutzan said something that stuck with me: the Stars might actually benefit from another dose of adversity, right now.

“We got another little adverse condition we need to work our way out of,” Gulutzan said, “So it might have come at the right time.”

Now, you might be asking how Game 71 is the “right time” for a team to be giving up a ton of breakaways and seeing their franchise goaltender chased after 20 minutes. But as Gulutzan went on to say, this recent stretch is, he thinks, much different from the 12-game skid back in January.

(I transcribed the quote below the clip, emphasis mine.)