I think that today's game convinced me to accept that the Stars are still a Top 10 NHL team that is currently going through a bad period. They might even be a Top 5 NHL team (although I'm not so sure about that), but not good enough to get past the first or second round of the playoffs. Not this season with this roster with a missing Top 6 guy (Tyler Seguin) and too many 7th defensemen getting too many 4th, 5th, and 6th defensemen minutes. (Bichsel, at least, should help here when he is ready to play again)
They are no longer finishing their fewer than normal scoring chances at their previous unusually successful (or puck lucky) rates. Their power play has come back to earth. They aren't generating enough power play chances anyway because as a team they don't skate as well as too many other teams and they aren't possessing the puck long enough, especially in the offensive zone. Their goaltending is above average, but not elite or at least not playing at an elite level.
Today’s game started with a simple Lundkvist wrister, the Stars second shot of the game, from the top of the circle that Vasilekskiy saves 19 times out of 20. That low-danger shot trickled through his legs for an easy tap-in goal by Oskar Back. They don’t all have to be Picasso’s but they don’t exist unless you attempt them.
So, the start was good but enough about the loss to Tampa Bay. There might be things more concerning in Starsland.
tl;dr: Do Something!
The Dallas Stars are a solid team. They sit third in the NHL in point percentage, are firmly nestled into a playoff spot, have the second-best power play, and the fifth best save percentage in the league. None of that can be in question. Neither can the fact that, for an extended period of time, the Stars have not played up to the level you would hope of a third-place team.
How you look at this depends on whether you’re the chicken scurrying outside with a hardhat to see how many chunks of blue are falling from above, or whether you’re the dog inside a house afire, content to ride out the heat. The latter is much more peaceful, and it has been nice and warm in here this season. But I keep thinking about that hardhat and wondering if it’s going to be needed sometime soon.
During their recent road trip, the game against the Capitals proved what the Stars are capable of. Using discernible tactics, as a team, allowed the Stars to run roughshod over the Capitals. The exact type of performance that sets expectations. The ability is there. No doubt.
That win was almost two weeks ago. It would be nice to see some facets of the system and the level of effort the Stars put in against Washington more often. Particularly in games they don't play well in and/or lose. The thing is, lately, that has not been the case. They play down to, or below their competition on a consistent basis. I’m not quite sure what the Stars are attempting to curate because they have been all over the board most of the season, with the exception of their astute point-gathering.
Consistently good teams in the NHL tend to have recognizable, repeatable identities. Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, and Vegas each demonstrate noticeable traits in the way they play. Since the Quinn Hughes trade, even the previously Pablum-flavored Minnesota Wild have developed an identity.
Recently, the Stars coach talked about the team sticking to their identity.
First-rate goaltending notwithstanding, what is the Stars’ team identity this season other than special teams which can dry up in a heartbeat in the playoffs (and have during the current slump)?
Are they fast? No. Do they check tenaciously? No. Do they suppress shots? No. Do they manufacture a lot of opportunities? No. Are they a rush team? No. Do they have a heavy fore-check? No. Are they tall? Heck yeah! Do they excel at high danger chances? Not nearly as much as has been touted. Do they outwork opponents down low? Sometimes. Being able to come back from deficits in third periods to collect some points is not an identity, unless part of that identity is letting the other team take the lead too often.
Certainly, “Better-defense-than-last-season” is not an identity to hang your hardhat on. Especially if the incremental defensive improvement has led to a comparative dearth of offensive opportunities.
This all leads to another honest question for which I don’t have an answer: Does this version of the Stars even have an identity of their own, or is the focus, most nights, on simply countering the character of the teams they play?
I am not trying to be a prophet of doom, nor do I want to be, and I am not trying to debate if what I see is valid. It is pretty clear though that what appeared to be a potential blip has become a bit of a trend. Two wins and 10 losses in the last 12 games, against mostly subpar competition, bears that fact.
Getting out-played by the opposition not only took place during their six-game losing streak. It was happening before then and has continued afterward. It has gone on longer than it might seem.
Before the holiday break, the Stars won a game in which the Sharks greatly carried the play, and then won another, scoring eight goals when they widely lost the possession battle and the Ducks’ goalies gifted the Stars a .530 save percentage. After the six-game losing streak ended in Washington came the embarrassing loss against the Ducks, and a fluky win over the Kings when both teams played poorly but Dallas more so by a fair bit.
Since December 18th, there have been three games in which the Stars played about equally as well or slightly better than the opposition (Toronto – a win, Montreal – a loss), and two in which they outplayed the other teams significantly (Detroit – a loss, Washington – a win).
The losses to Detroit and Montreal are the kinds of efforts one can look at as acceptable and often expected given the randomness of hockey. The loss to Utah is less excusable but they competed for a full 60 minutes which hasn’t been commonplace lately and that’s a good sign. In all three of those losses, they did good things and bad things but at least the good was readily identifiable.
In only five of the last 15 games have the Stars played clearly as well, or better, than the opposition (including two losses). In the remainder of those games, they played below a level one would expect of a team as capable as the Stars. One month is a pretty long stretch without a lot of good to look back on. It’s gone on too long to say any one or two of those games took place in a vacuum.
I’m not even going to mention that 10 of the 15 games played over that month were against teams in the middle and bottom third of the standings. That includes six losses to teams ranked 20th or lower but I said I wasn’t going to mention it. So I won’t.
Slumps happen, mistakes happen, flukiness happens during a season. Game to game, the NHL is the ultimate sports coin-toss. The Stars won’t have their A-game every night and luck (whether good or bad), tends to even out over time. Swings of luck can be evidenced by the Stars deep slide in shooting percentage from a historically high (13.6%) to just above league average (10.9%) in just over a month. A month, predictably, coinciding with their slump.
However, luck becomes less of a factor for teams that put forth consistent effort coupled WITH observably sound play. These two things haven’t commonly meshed very often for the Stars over the last long stretch. The coaches and the players alike don’t seem overly worried about that even though it’s exactly what will be required in the playoffs. The seeming lack of worry is what worries me.
Here is Dallas coach Glen Gulutzan’s reaction to the lucky, game-winning goal the Mammoth scored against the Stars - a loss in which his team was soundly out-possessed, and his goalie had to make at least five great stops to even keep the game within reach:
“Yeah, but that’s just the way it goes right now, you know? And the only thing you can do is just keep going and keep grinding. The results aren’t there, but the effort’s there, so that’s the good thing. The care, the dig-in, it’s all there. We’ve got to keep doing it.”
Keep doing what? Trying? Putting in a noticeable effort every third or fourth game? Unfortunately, other teams try, care and keep grinding too. There is no mention of things the Stars might need to work on. Things like the Mammoth having 62% of shot share, 62% of scoring chances-for, 69% of high danger chances-for, and 69% of expected goals-for. It wasn’t just a fluke. The Mammoth largely deserved to win. Nor has there been any reflection that the Stars have trailed in all those categories for the vast majority of games over the past month.
Is the takeaway that the Stars players put in a full 60 minutes for a change, and then had one bad bounce go against them but, “Hey, at least they tried.”?
The Stars players have mimicked the same platitudes all hockey players mimic when going through a bad stretch, talking about ‘digging in’ and continuing to ‘work hard’. What has been missing from the players is a level of frustration, publicly at least.
Yesterday, Gulutzan alluded to the fact the team doesn’t plan on altering anything: “It’s not about adjustments right now. It’s about us starting to stack,” Gulutzan said. “Stacking good days, good plays, good games, back-to-back.” and, "...so I’m just waiting…everything’s gotta come together.”
How can you stack things you are not consistently doing without making adjustments to help them happen? And what is he waiting for while witnessing the inferior outcome from doing nothing?
When the coach was asked if the team was focusing on the Stars often being out-shot/out-possessed: “Not anymore,” Gulutzan said. “We are where we are. We’ve had this when we were 17 and 5, and we have this now. It is kind of who we are.”
Is Gulutzan looking back to the first 22 games of the season as a reason to not address particularly problematic current issues? It seems his basis for this reasoning goes along the lines of, “It worked before, so it should work again, even though it’s not been working for some time”.
Dating back to December 11th, the Stars have 5 wins and 13 losses. Here are the number of times the Stars came out ahead in shot and possession metrics over those 18 games (5v5):
Shots On Goal – 5/18
Shot-Share: 5/18
Scoring Chances-For: 5/18
High Danger Chances-For: 6/18
Expected Goals-For: 6/18
Unsurprisingly, today’s game was another when they trailed in all five metrics to the Lightning.
In two of their five wins over that period, the Stars led these stats across the board. In other words, they have had a 3-13 win-loss record when they lost the shot and possession battles since December 11th. That’s a .188 win percentage. The problem is much bigger than the 6-game losing streak to start the New Year.
From the beginning of the season through December 23rd, the Stars had taken the fewest shots-on-goal per game in the entire league. But that worked out OK for them because they had the highest shooting percentage of any team in the past 30 years (again,13.6%). So, shot volume didn’t concern the coaching staff too much. This coincides with the 17 wins and 5 losses at the beginning of the season that Gulutzan looks fondly back on.
In the ten games since December 27th, the Stars took a similarly low number of shots on net as the first half of the season. During that stretch, their shooting percentage dipped to 8.8%. The Stars won only 2 of those 11 games, scoring a total of 16 goals at 5-on-5 (1.45 Goals Per Game).
I know people are sick of hearing about shot volumes. So am I. Just allow me this one last dalliance…
Today, the Lightning, had a 3-1 lead to start the third period and were leading in shots on goal 20-18. At the end of the game, the shot totals were 26-20 for Tampa Bay. The Stars managed to muster a grand total of two shots on goal in a 2-goal-game that was still completely in reach. Two whole shots in 20 m in minutes, while trailing! As has been standard, there was little to no urgency other than another desperation attempt at pulling the goalie with almost four minutes left in the game. The goalie-pull resulted in zero shots-for and about five attempts against before the Lightning scored on the empty net and put the Stars out of their (and our) collective misery.
I am no savant but…maybe some the possession and shot stuff is worth digging a little deeper into. You know, to see if adjustments can be made to improve end results. To improve anything, really.
The Stars will make the playoffs and that’s great. Step one accomplished. They have made the post season for the last three years and have looked like a threat to go all the way each of those years. I’m not sure one could say the same this season. The plan in the offseason was to build a team capable of competing better in the playoffs. That was the reason for the coaching change and the concomitant switch to a more defensive philosophy and system. One that seems to be faltering of late.
I would dare venture a guess that if the Stars were to play as they have in the past month, they would be run out of the playoffs on a rail, in the first round. If the team looks to compete after the regular season, this seems ripe time to cement an identity now rather than “waiting” for things to “come together”. What that identity might be is unclear but resting on laurels is an approach that seems both flawed and folly.
I would give my measly kingdom to read a quote along the lines of:
“We have done well so far this season and look fairly secure for a playoff spot. Still, this last stretch is not where this team can be. Everyone in the room knows that. It’s up to both the coaches and the players to put in the work to ensure we can play to the standard we have set for ourselves. The players see it as does the coaching staff. The sky is not falling, but we all need to make adjustments and put in the work to ensure we perform consistently enough to make a push once the post season arrives.”
Or…something.
For such a skilled and capable team, there should be no reason to be satisfied with the status quo of what has taken place over the last ugly month. Using the team’s good record to start the season as an excuse to not make adjustments feels distinctly like ostrich-head-in-the-sand sort of reasoning.
Sitting in a burning building, wearing a fedora, a tie, and a smile on your face while saying, “This is fine.” is certainly one way to address the team’s current slump and poor performance of late.
But…shouldn’t someone be worrying about a potential fall? Anyone? At least a little bit?
………
Anyway, good talk, y’all. I just looked up at the sky and now I have to go see if I can find my hardhat…just in case.
If it's any...consolation? Well, that might be too strong a word. Nevertheless:
This quote you'd love to hear: "We have done well so far this season and look fairly secure for a playoff spot. Still, this last stretch is not where this team can be. Everyone in the room knows that. It’s up to both the coaches and the players to put in the work to ensure we can play to the standard we have set for ourselves. The players see it as does the coaching staff. The sky is not falling, but we all need to make adjustments and put in the work to ensure we perform consistently enough to make a push once the post season arrives.”
Gulutzan's postgame presser tonight had a lot of him taking responsbility for improving things, finding the best line combos, etc. Players have said similar things. So I do think the frustration and desire to push harder is all there.
The word "adjustment" is a bit tricky, and with how quickly coaches get fired, it can often be interpreted as frantic, is my deduction from watching a lot of these the last couple years. (And also, there are always more changes they are actually making behind the scenes that they will never tell us about.)
Anyway, if they hadn't been worried about a potential fall before, they certainly are now.
I read his comments from today afterwards. That doesn't explain why it took so long for him to show a real concern, at least publicly. It's not like this has been going on for just one or two weeks. Having said that, I'm glad to hear what he said today because everything before today has seemed laissez-faire.
I hope they follow through because pretending it ain't happening wasn't working.
Net drive (I think "middle lane drive" is what Gulutzan said yesterday) is actually something Gulutzan said they're focusing on right now, if it helps.
Technically the Robo-Johnston-Rantanen line didn’t get scored on since Mikko was off the ice…and it came towards the end of the shift. (Seemed to me like Wyatt was simply trying to shoot the puck deep into the zone so he could get off, another player met him and made a great play. It wasn’t the only turn over at the blue line today, just the one the team paid for. Criticism of the turnover is valid nonetheless.) But, even if you wanted to count it against the line, that is still just 3 goals against in 84 minutes of ice time, with 9 for. So while I can understand what Gulutzan was attempting to say, it does feel a bit like a poor man’s excuse at this point? I remember when Hintz was out, and the lines were struggling at 5 v 5, and he was running Robo, Steel and Seguin. It took him a pretty long time to play Robo-Johnston-Rantanen together, and as dynamic as they looked…we saw them for just a few games before Hintz would ultimately return.
I also saw Gulutzan continue to run Steel on the top line, even when they had scored just 1 goal (4 against) in 80 minutes of ice time. And 120+ minutes later, that line is still intact. So I’m really not a fan of Gulutzan’s answer to that question. Because he’s had no issues with running mediocrity, even when it hasn’t resulted in success. Maybe I seem a bit harsh but I also just watched this type of stubbornness with Eberflus and the Cowboys.
Yeah, I was surprised not to see more Robertson with 53/96 in the third. They'd done than previously (Anaheim, I believe?) this month when searching for offense, so it was surprising not to see them try it again. Benn got a couple shifts up there, even. But I do think Gulutzan is a lot less stubborn than DeBoer, and even less so than any NFL coach.
This is the same team that finished on a downtrend to end last regular season. I am thinking a shake up to the core was needed in addition to the coaching change.
The Stars are 6-8-4 over their last 18 games dating back to their loss in MN against the Wild on December 11th. That amounts to roughly 22% of their 82-game schedule. Does that many games qualify as just a blip? I’m not sure that it does. In fact, I think it constitutes a serious worry about this team’s quality and their ability to win games and compete for a championship.
The Stars certainly have regressed to the mean on the power play. Without a productive PP, this team struggles mightily to put the puck in the net most nights. Scoring depth is a major concern. It’s just not there. The Stars have a few, high-end scorers. Beyond them, the production is extremely pedestrian. So when the big boys aren’t popping, the Stars are in trouble.
And speaking of depth, the defense has its own issues, with two AHL guys - Petrovic and Capobianco - getting lots of time and two others - Lundkvist and Lyubushkin - being marginal third pairing guys, at best. To me, this isn’t a D corps that screams, “Contender!”
Finally, in goal, Jake Oettinger has been way too inconsistent while Casey DeSmith has mostly outplayed Otter. Again, this is not a good recipe for what’s supposed to be a contending team.
If the team we’ve watched over the last, nearly six weeks is the real Dallas Stars team, then it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they don’t even make the playoffs, as shocking as that may seem. They either need to take urgent action to get this corrected or things will go farther downhill in a hurry.
Some reports are out there (though I haven't confirmed them, as Nill is generally cagey) that Dallas made a big push for Rasmus Andersson.
Whether they're true or not, I do believe there is some belief that they don't have enough quality blueliners to win the Cup as things stand right now, so I believe we'll see them try to upgrade on D as well as up front. As more teams start to sell, that might be easier.
I don’t think Fallas is a serious Cup contender and chasing Rasmussen or anyone doesn’t make sense to me. The cupboard is bare. Do the best you can with this roster but don’t sacrifice more future assets.
For some reason… teams are having an “easier” time shutting down the Stars. The Stars do not look dangerous, especially when the big play is clearing their own zone and changing after sustained pressure by their opponents. It really bothers me to say it out loud… these recent 12-15? Games that remind me of boring Bones hockey…
And, if DeSmith is our best chance to win, play him!
Mean reversion indeed, at both ends of the ice.
I think that today's game convinced me to accept that the Stars are still a Top 10 NHL team that is currently going through a bad period. They might even be a Top 5 NHL team (although I'm not so sure about that), but not good enough to get past the first or second round of the playoffs. Not this season with this roster with a missing Top 6 guy (Tyler Seguin) and too many 7th defensemen getting too many 4th, 5th, and 6th defensemen minutes. (Bichsel, at least, should help here when he is ready to play again)
They are no longer finishing their fewer than normal scoring chances at their previous unusually successful (or puck lucky) rates. Their power play has come back to earth. They aren't generating enough power play chances anyway because as a team they don't skate as well as too many other teams and they aren't possessing the puck long enough, especially in the offensive zone. Their goaltending is above average, but not elite or at least not playing at an elite level.
The PDO hockey gods eventually come for them all.
I sometimes eat chicken WINGS while watching the Stars. Does that count?
You are doing your part!
1 Random Ramble of Length
Today’s game started with a simple Lundkvist wrister, the Stars second shot of the game, from the top of the circle that Vasilekskiy saves 19 times out of 20. That low-danger shot trickled through his legs for an easy tap-in goal by Oskar Back. They don’t all have to be Picasso’s but they don’t exist unless you attempt them.
So, the start was good but enough about the loss to Tampa Bay. There might be things more concerning in Starsland.
tl;dr: Do Something!
The Dallas Stars are a solid team. They sit third in the NHL in point percentage, are firmly nestled into a playoff spot, have the second-best power play, and the fifth best save percentage in the league. None of that can be in question. Neither can the fact that, for an extended period of time, the Stars have not played up to the level you would hope of a third-place team.
How you look at this depends on whether you’re the chicken scurrying outside with a hardhat to see how many chunks of blue are falling from above, or whether you’re the dog inside a house afire, content to ride out the heat. The latter is much more peaceful, and it has been nice and warm in here this season. But I keep thinking about that hardhat and wondering if it’s going to be needed sometime soon.
During their recent road trip, the game against the Capitals proved what the Stars are capable of. Using discernible tactics, as a team, allowed the Stars to run roughshod over the Capitals. The exact type of performance that sets expectations. The ability is there. No doubt.
That win was almost two weeks ago. It would be nice to see some facets of the system and the level of effort the Stars put in against Washington more often. Particularly in games they don't play well in and/or lose. The thing is, lately, that has not been the case. They play down to, or below their competition on a consistent basis. I’m not quite sure what the Stars are attempting to curate because they have been all over the board most of the season, with the exception of their astute point-gathering.
Consistently good teams in the NHL tend to have recognizable, repeatable identities. Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, and Vegas each demonstrate noticeable traits in the way they play. Since the Quinn Hughes trade, even the previously Pablum-flavored Minnesota Wild have developed an identity.
Recently, the Stars coach talked about the team sticking to their identity.
First-rate goaltending notwithstanding, what is the Stars’ team identity this season other than special teams which can dry up in a heartbeat in the playoffs (and have during the current slump)?
Are they fast? No. Do they check tenaciously? No. Do they suppress shots? No. Do they manufacture a lot of opportunities? No. Are they a rush team? No. Do they have a heavy fore-check? No. Are they tall? Heck yeah! Do they excel at high danger chances? Not nearly as much as has been touted. Do they outwork opponents down low? Sometimes. Being able to come back from deficits in third periods to collect some points is not an identity, unless part of that identity is letting the other team take the lead too often.
Certainly, “Better-defense-than-last-season” is not an identity to hang your hardhat on. Especially if the incremental defensive improvement has led to a comparative dearth of offensive opportunities.
This all leads to another honest question for which I don’t have an answer: Does this version of the Stars even have an identity of their own, or is the focus, most nights, on simply countering the character of the teams they play?
I am not trying to be a prophet of doom, nor do I want to be, and I am not trying to debate if what I see is valid. It is pretty clear though that what appeared to be a potential blip has become a bit of a trend. Two wins and 10 losses in the last 12 games, against mostly subpar competition, bears that fact.
Getting out-played by the opposition not only took place during their six-game losing streak. It was happening before then and has continued afterward. It has gone on longer than it might seem.
Before the holiday break, the Stars won a game in which the Sharks greatly carried the play, and then won another, scoring eight goals when they widely lost the possession battle and the Ducks’ goalies gifted the Stars a .530 save percentage. After the six-game losing streak ended in Washington came the embarrassing loss against the Ducks, and a fluky win over the Kings when both teams played poorly but Dallas more so by a fair bit.
Since December 18th, there have been three games in which the Stars played about equally as well or slightly better than the opposition (Toronto – a win, Montreal – a loss), and two in which they outplayed the other teams significantly (Detroit – a loss, Washington – a win).
The losses to Detroit and Montreal are the kinds of efforts one can look at as acceptable and often expected given the randomness of hockey. The loss to Utah is less excusable but they competed for a full 60 minutes which hasn’t been commonplace lately and that’s a good sign. In all three of those losses, they did good things and bad things but at least the good was readily identifiable.
In only five of the last 15 games have the Stars played clearly as well, or better, than the opposition (including two losses). In the remainder of those games, they played below a level one would expect of a team as capable as the Stars. One month is a pretty long stretch without a lot of good to look back on. It’s gone on too long to say any one or two of those games took place in a vacuum.
I’m not even going to mention that 10 of the 15 games played over that month were against teams in the middle and bottom third of the standings. That includes six losses to teams ranked 20th or lower but I said I wasn’t going to mention it. So I won’t.
Slumps happen, mistakes happen, flukiness happens during a season. Game to game, the NHL is the ultimate sports coin-toss. The Stars won’t have their A-game every night and luck (whether good or bad), tends to even out over time. Swings of luck can be evidenced by the Stars deep slide in shooting percentage from a historically high (13.6%) to just above league average (10.9%) in just over a month. A month, predictably, coinciding with their slump.
However, luck becomes less of a factor for teams that put forth consistent effort coupled WITH observably sound play. These two things haven’t commonly meshed very often for the Stars over the last long stretch. The coaches and the players alike don’t seem overly worried about that even though it’s exactly what will be required in the playoffs. The seeming lack of worry is what worries me.
Here is Dallas coach Glen Gulutzan’s reaction to the lucky, game-winning goal the Mammoth scored against the Stars - a loss in which his team was soundly out-possessed, and his goalie had to make at least five great stops to even keep the game within reach:
“Yeah, but that’s just the way it goes right now, you know? And the only thing you can do is just keep going and keep grinding. The results aren’t there, but the effort’s there, so that’s the good thing. The care, the dig-in, it’s all there. We’ve got to keep doing it.”
Keep doing what? Trying? Putting in a noticeable effort every third or fourth game? Unfortunately, other teams try, care and keep grinding too. There is no mention of things the Stars might need to work on. Things like the Mammoth having 62% of shot share, 62% of scoring chances-for, 69% of high danger chances-for, and 69% of expected goals-for. It wasn’t just a fluke. The Mammoth largely deserved to win. Nor has there been any reflection that the Stars have trailed in all those categories for the vast majority of games over the past month.
Is the takeaway that the Stars players put in a full 60 minutes for a change, and then had one bad bounce go against them but, “Hey, at least they tried.”?
The Stars players have mimicked the same platitudes all hockey players mimic when going through a bad stretch, talking about ‘digging in’ and continuing to ‘work hard’. What has been missing from the players is a level of frustration, publicly at least.
Yesterday, Gulutzan alluded to the fact the team doesn’t plan on altering anything: “It’s not about adjustments right now. It’s about us starting to stack,” Gulutzan said. “Stacking good days, good plays, good games, back-to-back.” and, "...so I’m just waiting…everything’s gotta come together.”
How can you stack things you are not consistently doing without making adjustments to help them happen? And what is he waiting for while witnessing the inferior outcome from doing nothing?
When the coach was asked if the team was focusing on the Stars often being out-shot/out-possessed: “Not anymore,” Gulutzan said. “We are where we are. We’ve had this when we were 17 and 5, and we have this now. It is kind of who we are.”
Is Gulutzan looking back to the first 22 games of the season as a reason to not address particularly problematic current issues? It seems his basis for this reasoning goes along the lines of, “It worked before, so it should work again, even though it’s not been working for some time”.
(Cont'd - sorry)
(cont'd rant)
Dating back to December 11th, the Stars have 5 wins and 13 losses. Here are the number of times the Stars came out ahead in shot and possession metrics over those 18 games (5v5):
Shots On Goal – 5/18
Shot-Share: 5/18
Scoring Chances-For: 5/18
High Danger Chances-For: 6/18
Expected Goals-For: 6/18
Unsurprisingly, today’s game was another when they trailed in all five metrics to the Lightning.
In two of their five wins over that period, the Stars led these stats across the board. In other words, they have had a 3-13 win-loss record when they lost the shot and possession battles since December 11th. That’s a .188 win percentage. The problem is much bigger than the 6-game losing streak to start the New Year.
From the beginning of the season through December 23rd, the Stars had taken the fewest shots-on-goal per game in the entire league. But that worked out OK for them because they had the highest shooting percentage of any team in the past 30 years (again,13.6%). So, shot volume didn’t concern the coaching staff too much. This coincides with the 17 wins and 5 losses at the beginning of the season that Gulutzan looks fondly back on.
In the ten games since December 27th, the Stars took a similarly low number of shots on net as the first half of the season. During that stretch, their shooting percentage dipped to 8.8%. The Stars won only 2 of those 11 games, scoring a total of 16 goals at 5-on-5 (1.45 Goals Per Game).
I know people are sick of hearing about shot volumes. So am I. Just allow me this one last dalliance…
Today, the Lightning, had a 3-1 lead to start the third period and were leading in shots on goal 20-18. At the end of the game, the shot totals were 26-20 for Tampa Bay. The Stars managed to muster a grand total of two shots on goal in a 2-goal-game that was still completely in reach. Two whole shots in 20 m in minutes, while trailing! As has been standard, there was little to no urgency other than another desperation attempt at pulling the goalie with almost four minutes left in the game. The goalie-pull resulted in zero shots-for and about five attempts against before the Lightning scored on the empty net and put the Stars out of their (and our) collective misery.
I am no savant but…maybe some the possession and shot stuff is worth digging a little deeper into. You know, to see if adjustments can be made to improve end results. To improve anything, really.
The Stars will make the playoffs and that’s great. Step one accomplished. They have made the post season for the last three years and have looked like a threat to go all the way each of those years. I’m not sure one could say the same this season. The plan in the offseason was to build a team capable of competing better in the playoffs. That was the reason for the coaching change and the concomitant switch to a more defensive philosophy and system. One that seems to be faltering of late.
I would dare venture a guess that if the Stars were to play as they have in the past month, they would be run out of the playoffs on a rail, in the first round. If the team looks to compete after the regular season, this seems ripe time to cement an identity now rather than “waiting” for things to “come together”. What that identity might be is unclear but resting on laurels is an approach that seems both flawed and folly.
I would give my measly kingdom to read a quote along the lines of:
“We have done well so far this season and look fairly secure for a playoff spot. Still, this last stretch is not where this team can be. Everyone in the room knows that. It’s up to both the coaches and the players to put in the work to ensure we can play to the standard we have set for ourselves. The players see it as does the coaching staff. The sky is not falling, but we all need to make adjustments and put in the work to ensure we perform consistently enough to make a push once the post season arrives.”
Or…something.
For such a skilled and capable team, there should be no reason to be satisfied with the status quo of what has taken place over the last ugly month. Using the team’s good record to start the season as an excuse to not make adjustments feels distinctly like ostrich-head-in-the-sand sort of reasoning.
Sitting in a burning building, wearing a fedora, a tie, and a smile on your face while saying, “This is fine.” is certainly one way to address the team’s current slump and poor performance of late.
But…shouldn’t someone be worrying about a potential fall? Anyone? At least a little bit?
………
Anyway, good talk, y’all. I just looked up at the sky and now I have to go see if I can find my hardhat…just in case.
KK - WOW, awesome analysis and so spot on!!!
Well said and spot on!
If it's any...consolation? Well, that might be too strong a word. Nevertheless:
This quote you'd love to hear: "We have done well so far this season and look fairly secure for a playoff spot. Still, this last stretch is not where this team can be. Everyone in the room knows that. It’s up to both the coaches and the players to put in the work to ensure we can play to the standard we have set for ourselves. The players see it as does the coaching staff. The sky is not falling, but we all need to make adjustments and put in the work to ensure we perform consistently enough to make a push once the post season arrives.”
Gulutzan's postgame presser tonight had a lot of him taking responsbility for improving things, finding the best line combos, etc. Players have said similar things. So I do think the frustration and desire to push harder is all there.
The word "adjustment" is a bit tricky, and with how quickly coaches get fired, it can often be interpreted as frantic, is my deduction from watching a lot of these the last couple years. (And also, there are always more changes they are actually making behind the scenes that they will never tell us about.)
Anyway, if they hadn't been worried about a potential fall before, they certainly are now.
I read his comments from today afterwards. That doesn't explain why it took so long for him to show a real concern, at least publicly. It's not like this has been going on for just one or two weeks. Having said that, I'm glad to hear what he said today because everything before today has seemed laissez-faire.
I hope they follow through because pretending it ain't happening wasn't working.
Kind of lost in all the meh but Harley didn’t look *bad* today. As the dullest of silver linings
Sad to see this team struggle in all phases. I am starting to check out as a fan with my growing low expectations.
My reaction to this game today — where is the anger, where is the evident frustration, where is the net drive, where is the 60 minute game boys?
Net drive (I think "middle lane drive" is what Gulutzan said yesterday) is actually something Gulutzan said they're focusing on right now, if it helps.
Technically the Robo-Johnston-Rantanen line didn’t get scored on since Mikko was off the ice…and it came towards the end of the shift. (Seemed to me like Wyatt was simply trying to shoot the puck deep into the zone so he could get off, another player met him and made a great play. It wasn’t the only turn over at the blue line today, just the one the team paid for. Criticism of the turnover is valid nonetheless.) But, even if you wanted to count it against the line, that is still just 3 goals against in 84 minutes of ice time, with 9 for. So while I can understand what Gulutzan was attempting to say, it does feel a bit like a poor man’s excuse at this point? I remember when Hintz was out, and the lines were struggling at 5 v 5, and he was running Robo, Steel and Seguin. It took him a pretty long time to play Robo-Johnston-Rantanen together, and as dynamic as they looked…we saw them for just a few games before Hintz would ultimately return.
I also saw Gulutzan continue to run Steel on the top line, even when they had scored just 1 goal (4 against) in 80 minutes of ice time. And 120+ minutes later, that line is still intact. So I’m really not a fan of Gulutzan’s answer to that question. Because he’s had no issues with running mediocrity, even when it hasn’t resulted in success. Maybe I seem a bit harsh but I also just watched this type of stubbornness with Eberflus and the Cowboys.
Yeah, I was surprised not to see more Robertson with 53/96 in the third. They'd done than previously (Anaheim, I believe?) this month when searching for offense, so it was surprising not to see them try it again. Benn got a couple shifts up there, even. But I do think Gulutzan is a lot less stubborn than DeBoer, and even less so than any NFL coach.
This is the same team that finished on a downtrend to end last regular season. I am thinking a shake up to the core was needed in addition to the coaching change.
The Stars are 6-8-4 over their last 18 games dating back to their loss in MN against the Wild on December 11th. That amounts to roughly 22% of their 82-game schedule. Does that many games qualify as just a blip? I’m not sure that it does. In fact, I think it constitutes a serious worry about this team’s quality and their ability to win games and compete for a championship.
The Stars certainly have regressed to the mean on the power play. Without a productive PP, this team struggles mightily to put the puck in the net most nights. Scoring depth is a major concern. It’s just not there. The Stars have a few, high-end scorers. Beyond them, the production is extremely pedestrian. So when the big boys aren’t popping, the Stars are in trouble.
And speaking of depth, the defense has its own issues, with two AHL guys - Petrovic and Capobianco - getting lots of time and two others - Lundkvist and Lyubushkin - being marginal third pairing guys, at best. To me, this isn’t a D corps that screams, “Contender!”
Finally, in goal, Jake Oettinger has been way too inconsistent while Casey DeSmith has mostly outplayed Otter. Again, this is not a good recipe for what’s supposed to be a contending team.
If the team we’ve watched over the last, nearly six weeks is the real Dallas Stars team, then it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they don’t even make the playoffs, as shocking as that may seem. They either need to take urgent action to get this corrected or things will go farther downhill in a hurry.
Some reports are out there (though I haven't confirmed them, as Nill is generally cagey) that Dallas made a big push for Rasmus Andersson.
Whether they're true or not, I do believe there is some belief that they don't have enough quality blueliners to win the Cup as things stand right now, so I believe we'll see them try to upgrade on D as well as up front. As more teams start to sell, that might be easier.
I don’t think Fallas is a serious Cup contender and chasing Rasmussen or anyone doesn’t make sense to me. The cupboard is bare. Do the best you can with this roster but don’t sacrifice more future assets.
You can’t slow down after trading for Rantanen. The window is now.
Testify, Drew.
"And the responsibility falls on me to get us into the right mindset to get us to play our game for 60 minutes."
Well, what is the "game"?
For some reason… teams are having an “easier” time shutting down the Stars. The Stars do not look dangerous, especially when the big play is clearing their own zone and changing after sustained pressure by their opponents. It really bothers me to say it out loud… these recent 12-15? Games that remind me of boring Bones hockey…
And, if DeSmith is our best chance to win, play him!