Game 37 AfterThoughts: Scoring Fixes Everything

The Ottawa Senators are never a sure thing for Dallas, as you don’t need me to tell you. Go ahead, just try to remember at least one frustrating loss against the Senators. I bet you could remember one! Because there have been a lot. Here’s some recent history (Ottawa wins are indicated with a green “W” on the far right):

Hoo boy! That arbitrary range of dates shows the Stars have only won five of their last 16 games against Ottawa. It’s one thing to feel like Toronto always finds a way to beat this club, because they’re sort of like the Yankees, and remember when the Yankees were always beating the Rangers, until last season, when the Rangers won the World Series in Baseball? And then this past year, when the Yankees lost in the World Series to the wonderful Los Angeles Dodgers? Yes, the Yankees can lose, and the Rangers can win, but the point here is that Toronto often seems to win, and that’s not crazy. But Ottawa winning as much as they have against Dallas recently is crazy, and it was nice to see it stop, for once.

This game could have easily joined those ranks, despite Dallas holding Ottawa to a meek total of just 13 shots on goal. Brien Rea called out how legendary of a performance this is, as Dallas equaled their lowest total of shots on goal allowed in nearly 20 years—in a game I distinctly remember, as it happens. (I recall hoping against hope that the Stars would somehow keep the Coyotes below double-digit shots on goal, but they just barely allowed them to creep over the mark as the game wound down.)

13 shots allowed by Dallas tonight in their win over Ottawa.

The fewest they've allowed in a game since November 9, 2006 vs. Arizona — a 1-0 win.#TexasHockey

— Brien Rea (@BrienRea) January 3, 2025

This could’ve been a really stupid loss, in other words. One more goal by Ottawa to make it 3-on-3, and then the overtime coin flip. This could’ve been a frustrating loss, but Duchene’s goal to make it 4-2 ensured it wouldn’t be. Sometimes it’s good to put any thought of disaster out of your mind, lest you dwell on averted disaster to your pointless anxiety. But other times, it can help you appreciate the sweetness of a victory to recognize how easily a far worse path could’ve been taken. This is not exactly world-class life advice we are talking about here, I guess.

***

Pete DeBoer didn’t beat around the bush after this one:

“We’re scoring some goals. The right guys are scoring some goals, and the power play got a goal. We’ve defended well all year and given ourselves a chance to win games almost every night, but you know, when the goals are there and we’re getting, like I said, three or four a night, we’re a hard team to beat.”

It really does feel that simple lately, doesn’t it? In a game the Stars appeared to be controlling early, then appeared to have lost control of shortly afterward, it was the top-six forwards for the third game in a row that ensured the Stars would be able to outpace the competition.

Matt Duchene’s new line has been instrumental in that success, as he mentioned tonight. Duchene’s goal on a beautiful setup from Wyatt Johnston gave the Stars a critical two-goal lead before Ottawa really started to bring the house, and that enabled Dallas to weather the final flurry, even on a 6-on-4, without feeling like disaster was just around the corner.

It turns out, that’s more fun for the players, too.

“Since we kind of switched the lines up,” said Duchene, “it feels like we’re a little more dangerous and getting more done. We have more jump to our game, and you know, you got to make adjustments when guys get hurt, and guys have been doing a really good job…it feels more fun out there right now, more is happening.”

It’s always more fun when the bad breaks don’t sink your ship entirely, you know? This game was a closer one than the Buffalo game, where the Stars got goalie’d for a bit before finally breaking through enough to take the win, but they still found a way to overcome what has been a run of elite netminding at the other end. And to talk about the specific numbers of said run, let’s ask, of all people, Matt Duchene:

“I saw a stat tonight, in the last seven games, goalies in the last seven games, goalies have a .937 save percentages against us at home, and we’re still finding ways to win, because we’re doing enough [of the] right things, and we’re getting rewarded.

Duchene mentioned afterwards that he, Johnston, and Jamie Benn all see the game really similarly, both in how they forecheck and create chances on give-and-go’s, and that’s made things pretty simple for them. And the goals have been flowing for the trio at a time when the Stars have needed them desperately.

Roope Hintz scored two goals in the first half of this game, too. Jason Robertson had two primary assists, and Evgenii Dadonov had a couple of times where Ottawa had to be absolutely perfect lest he create a grade-A chance himself. There’s a ton of skill in the “loaded up” top six forward group right now, and Dallas has found a way to push past the rotten shooting luck that frustrated them more than a couple of times in their first 30 games or so.

That luck was crucial, given how the Senators’ two goals were scored. DeBoer called it “uncharacteristic,” which is a concise way to say “Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley don’t usually give the puck to the opposition in prime scoring areas by their own net.” The Stars’ defensive structure was able to withstand Ottawa’s rapid-fire lead, and the Stars’ superior play eventually got Dallas back in front, when Jamie Benn sent a puck from distance that took a nice little deflection off an opposing skate to even things up. When you shoot the puck more than the other team, you are more likely to get those bounces. I know we also knew that fact earlier in the season, but it’s nice when the likelihood actually begins to, you know, actualize, as it did tonight.

It’s funny, given how last game Benn had seven shots on goal, but Johnston was the only player to get on the scoresheet from that line. Duchene mentioned that his line could have scored ten goals last game, and that is not an exaggeration because Duchene clarified thus:

“Last game, we had one goal as a line,” said Duchene, “but Johnny was the only one to get on the sheet of the three of us, but we could have had ten goals—like legitimately ten, we had I think 12 grade-A chances, and we only found one. Then tonight, we’re minus-two on one shift, then you know, not much going on. A simple rush, [Benn] takes a shot, hits a stick, goes bar-down. So yeah, it should even out, if you keep producing the process.”

This team really does feel like it could have another explosive night on offense, even with a couple players out, right now. The Benn goal was a hint of one of those types of games, like Pittsburgh found to their detriment. And while the Stars haven’t fixed everything that ails them, the underlying numbers and their points percentage and goal-differential all say they are one of the very good teams in the NHL. DeBoer even alluded to this after the game as something he had been talking about in the locker room with the players. They have weathered a lot early this year, and they’re still weathering it. But through it all, they’re still doing all right. And games like this are a reminder that, sometimes, the universe will even out. Sometimes.

***

The penalty kill was also a huge story in this one, as just one Senators goal on the man-advantage could have changed the entire game. But the Dallas penalty kill was outstanding in this one, with Brady Tkachuk being the only only who really had a beautiful look, and he shanked it at 6-on-4 late. The Stars’ strengths as a team can’t always overcome horrible shooting luck, but when they do get a few goals, they seem to be able to withstand almost anything a mediocre team can throw at them, and even some very good ones.

For instance, do you remember that spinaround Mason Marchment goal against Winnipeg a while back? That’s a player they just don’t have right now, but they’ve won three in a row in games they haven’t played perfectly, by any stretch. But while a defensively sound game can give you a chance to win, I think confidence and patience make you downright likely to do so. And when you have a lineup of players who seem to genuinely feel that they are the better team most night, including even someone playing his first NHL game, I think that’s a powerful ally.

It’s a lot easier when you get a power play goal, though.

***

Arttu Hyry made his NHL debut in this one, going 6-for-6 on faceoffs, and playing solidly as well. Hyry had been playing center on the Texas Stars’ most productive line as of late with Matěj Blümel and Cameron Hughes, but with Mason Marchment still out for a bit in Dallas, and with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston playing up with Matt Duchene, the Stars needed to figure out how to make the identity of their lower lines something more than just “don’t screw up while we wait for Matt Duchene to come back on the ice.”

For now, the coaching staff has chosen to keep Mavrik Bourque with Logan Stankoven, but I don’t know how much longer they can hold out hope for one or both of those rookies to finally get going. We’ll see if that line’s youth can turn promise into production, but the fourth line has an easier job without the scoring burden that players like Stankoven and Bourque have to carry (as we discussed earlier today). Hence, Oskar Bäck was moved down to play on Arttu Hyry’s left wing opposite Colin Blackwell. DeBoer complimented Hyry’s faceoff prowess after the game, mentioning the rookie is “a big man, heavy, hard, and he did a good job too, on the depth lines.”

For the time being, I’d expect to see Hyry continue to hold down a spot. He played just under 9 minutes in this one, and he won every faceoff he took. That’s a good way to earn a coach’s trust in a short amount of time. Also, being a center. Also, being large and good at hockey. Pro tips, these.

The warmup lines looked like this tonight:

Robertston-Hintz-Dadonov
Benn-Duchene-Johnston
Steel-Bourque-Stankoven
Bäck-Hyry-Blackwell

Heiskanen-Lyubushkin
Lindell-Lundkvist
Harley-Dumba

Oettinger in goal

***

As for the game itself, Mavrik Bourque gathered a rebound and fired right away a few minutes in, but his shooting luck continued to follow many of his teammates’s, and Leevi Meriläinen made the save with nonchalance. But the sequence ended in a (fairly) mild tripping penalty to put Dallas on the job for the first and only successful power play (oh, spoilers, sorry, I forgot).

And for once, as you already know now, the Stars’ power play got things done with ease and efficiency, as Roope Hintz expertly posted up and more expertly tipped a Jason Robertson shot through Meriläinen’s five hole to put Dallas ahead, 1-0. It was the latest encouraging sign for a pair of players who have been showing encouraging signs lately. Hintz’s goal-scoring is on pace for a record high for him, and

Ottawa would get a power play of their own on a similarly marginal tripping call against Nils Lundkvist, but the excellent Dallas penalty kill continued its solid work, and the Stars took their lead to the first television timeout, but not much further. In fact, it would be two rough plays by Dallas defensemen after outstanding work from Brady Tkachuk.

First, Harley tried an overly cute pass off the faceoff back to Duchene in the circle, and turned it over to Shane Pinto, who faked a shot to freeze the Stars before slapping it over to Tkachuk for a slam-dunk on the back door. And before that goal had even set in, Heiskanen would get the puck taken away behind the net by Tkachuk, who fed Ridly Greig for a low-to-not-quite-as-low chance that Oettinger could only gamely try to get a piece of as it went in on his blocker side.

It was a stunning sequence, showing the Stars that they wouldn’t be able to count on Buffalo-type sloppiness. From there, the hope was that Dallas would be able to tighten up their puck play, and force Ottawa to earn any further chances they would get.

The Stars’ power play had two subsequent such chances when the Senators took two more penalties with just a few seconds of overlap, but the Senators seemed to have done some locking down of their own, as the four penalty minutes ticked away without Dallas getting back to level. It stung a little bit extra, given how officials become more reticent to exaggerate a power play disparity as the game goes on, but I suppose going 1-for-3 would have felt like salad days in almost any other game.

Thomas Harley had a second loose puck play in his own zone in the final bit of the first period that mercifully didn’t turn into anything worse, but this time he almost made up for it with a beautiful fake-shot/slap-pass to Duchene in the far circle, but the Stars’ leading scorer took just a tick too long to gather the pass before shooting, and Meriläinen was able to shrug it away after getting across to take the Sens’ lead into the first intermission. It was a frustrating deficit for Dallas, who squandered a power play goal by serving up two pizzas hot & ready, as this shot chart from the first period demonstrates:

Ottawa tested Oettinger a couple of times from the netfront early in the second, but the Stars’ goalie was able to track pucks off deflections and keep things close. But the inevitable Ottawa power play came five minutes in, when Lundkvist tried to clamp down on Pinto’s stick along the boards, only to end up getting a piece of his skates and sending him to the ice.

Oettinger came up huge late in the power play to stop Greig on a tip play, though, and the Stars’ defenseman once again escaped confinement with minimal regret. There is a reason the Stars have one of the best penalty kills in the NHL right now, and it is because the Stars’ penalty kill is really good.

Mavrik Bourque had a strong shift with around 11:00 remaining in the second period, including a sneaky-quick shot from a ways out that Meriläinen nearly ducked out of the way of. Miro Heiskanen finished off the shift with an excellent double-block on defense, preventing a good rush from ever testing Oettinger. And that would be huge on the ensuing shift.

Jamie Benn had seven shots on goal on New Year’s Eve, but none of them found the net. So of course, it was a bit of a harmless-looking wrister that ticked off the back of Travis Hamonic’s leg, flying into the top of the net behind Meriläinen to even things up. It was a well-deserved goal from Benn, who has looked rejuvenated playing with Duchene in the last couple of games. It was also rejuvenating for the Stars, who had begun to sag in the first half of the second period before drawing level.

And the Stars weren’t content to merely eliminate the deficit, either. Following the Senators’ example, Dallas went for a two-pack of goals, after Jason Robertson held onto a puck with his back to the crease before finding a tiny scrap of space on which to set Hintz’s table. And with Meriläinen already down low, the Robertson-Hintz duo had its second deadly strike in as many periods.

It was a beautiful bit of work from Robertson, whose skill is beginning to make up the gap between his production and expectations this year. And with 45 games left to go, it’s far from a remote possibility that he heats up and turns back into Jason Robertson! before too long. Life is full of possibilities.

The Stars were on the trot after that goal, getting chance after chance in the Ottawa zone, with the Senators turning the puck over amid the increased pressure. The crowd was loving every chance Hintz got with the puck, sitting on a hat trick as he was, and aven Arttu Hyry had a look or two, with a potential tip play looking every bit like it was drawn up to get him a special moment in his first NHL game. Hyry also closed his skates on the backcheck just in time to avoid a nutmeg for a scoring chance, which was a crucial intervention. That’s the sort of responsibility the Stars were surely hoping to see from him.

Josh Norris started the third period with a high-sticking penalty against the Duchene line, but it was Shane Pinto who almost scored on the ensuing power play, getting a shorthanded breakaway that Miro Heiskanen was able to be somewhat present for while Oettinger made a massive stop. Unfortunately for Dallas, that was the best scoring chance for either team, though Duchene tried a slick move to the far post that wasn’t able to beat the leg pad of the Finnish goalie whose name I have typed a sufficient amount of times tonight, with an umlaut and everything.

The power play see-saw then flipped over, as Robertson got nailed for an illegal check to the head minor on Tyler Kleven, who was all right, thankfully. But the Stars’ penalty kill proved to be safer than the power play, and the two minutes elapsed without much of anything in the way of scoring chances.

Robertson then took a hit along the boards that was called boarding, and, I wondered a bit if perhaps the officials felt more obligated to call the reaction than the penalty, as Cole Reinhardt put a (fairly late) hit on Robertson where he actually appeared to cut into the body just after coming up from behind to get even with the shoulders. You be the judge, I suppose, but here was the point of impact:

Robertson hadn’t seen the hit coming, given how long the puck had been gone, but it still felt a bit surprising to see it called. What was less surprising was the fruitless power play that followed, putting the Stars at a cool 1-for-5 on the man-advantage.

The final ten minutes of a 3-2 game got chippy in a really fun way, with the Hyry line winning a faceoff and going to work in the offensive zone. And after a couple of almosts around the net, Claude Giroux fell to his knees after Oskar Bäck’s elbow caught him in the face as he was skating up from behind Bäck, who had the puck. And I think it might have saved him from a similar fate to Tyler Bertuzzi, who got ejected a few nights back for his wayward elbow, unintentional as it seemed. But no penalty was assessed on the play, and the game moved on.

Despite Dallas leading Ottawa by around 10 shots on goal, the game still felt far too close for comfort, though. So Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston continued the top-six scoring the Stars have been riding for three games, as Ottawa failed to get past the heavy forecheck from Johnston & Co., and the Stars’ youngest forward found Duchene in what we call the “Yes, please” zone for shooters. Duchene fired the pass from Gretzky’s office right back through the five-hole, and the Stars had a two-goal lead that made everyone breathe a lot easier.

Mavrik Bourque took a shot off the top of the knee that brought him down to the ice with four minutes to go, but Bourque returned to the bench shortly after going down the tunnel, which was a relief.

What wasn’t a relief was the delay of game penalty Johnston took with three minutes to go. Ottawa pulled the goalie to go 6-on-4, and Tkachuk ought to have cashed it immediately on a one-timer from the same spot Duchene scored from, but the puck sailed wide. Ilya Lyubushkin and Roope Hintz had the other best scoring chances, but both of their long-distance efforts at the open net missed by a couple of feet, robbing the home crowd of some gratuitious jubilation, if there is such a thing (note to self: buy a dictionary).

So the Stars took the win in this one, which is never a guarantee when they’re facing Ottawa. It might betoken a turning point in the season, or perhaps it’s just a run of some nice bounces against some so-so teams. But wins are wins are wins, and with a long Canadian road trip just around the corner, the Stars needed to bank a few points they didn’t get on their last homestand. And to their credit, they’ve done so. Now only Utah remains, and one suspects Casey DeSmith will get a chance to burrow even further into their collective heads. Goalies can do that. And against the Stars, as Duchene’s memorized statistics clearly show, goalies have done that, a lot. But not tonight. And maybe, less often from here on out.