Great write up Robert. Matches what I saw and not what ESPN told me. I think this mostly boils down to which version of Skinner and Otter we see. Looking forward to tomorrow.
Why didn't Benn do or say anything about the high stick?! I mean, that could have at least given us some life. We also need to start taking the body on McDavid. No one is finishing checks on him. He's just allowed to free flow. The Stars are allowing him to be way too comfortable out there. I feel like we played a good game. Our mistakes were fatal. Otter needed to make a couple of big saves. He just looked slow to challenge and was beaten clean too many times. There's only so much we can say about the officiating.
Come back and take game 4. It's as simple as that. Remember that you're playing Stuart Skinner, not Dominik Hasek.
To be sure, trying to get a body on Conner McDavid is like trying to board a speeding train going 60 mph. He really is the best player in the world. Stars need to adopt the MacKinnon strategy, which is to clog the neutral zone and don't let him get that running start in the first place.
Robert, reading the Internet comments on the X dot com hellsite is almost always a rookie mistake. Take it from me. 😂
The analytics are telling me what I saw with my eyes yesterday. This was in no way, shape, or form a 6-1 game. The Stars were the better team in pretty much every way except finishing chances. They lost because they didn't convert their chances and got burned a few times when they had to start playing high risk, high reward hockey in the 3rd period. A good baseball analogy would be going 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position while their opposition went 5 for 7. That's sports. I would not be shocked if there is mean reversion on both sides and the Stars end up stealing Game 4 and regaining home ice advantage. They have done it before against both the Avs and Jets. Goal differential means a lot to GMs and the analytics people during the course of the entire season, but in the playoffs only the wins count.
Wyatt Johnston is playing some of the worst hockey of his career right now. Part of it is the opposition -- he is being asked to play against the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Conner McDavid (weird guy with a weird house, but with the part Finnish girlfriend I have an idea here for Jim Nill to pursue in the offseason...but I digress). And part of it is that he is being asked to play with linemates who themselves are slumping. But I also think that his defensive play is getting exposed a bit in the playoffs. He's still basically a kid and he is playing like a guy who is both mentally and physically tired. DeBoer trusts him in every situation, and I would trust him in every situation, but he's definitely slumping, especially mentally.
I also think that Thomas Harley might be finally hitting a bit of a wall. He is also making mistakes and most of them seem to be mental.
The Moose is just fine. Don't change a thing with him, but his linemates need to step it up. Robo is still showing signs of getting there, but he's not quite there yet.
I didn't have Stuart Skinner (FFS) outplaying Oettingerer so far, but that's the case in the last two games. The same thing happened last year, too. Here, too, I hope for a bit of mean reversion in Game 4.
Anyway, I can go on and on, but this comment is already way, way, WAY too long.
Agree on Harley and Johnston looking like they've hit a wall. They've played a lot of games with a lot of heavy minutes the last three springs.
Still, those guys have to come through. Waaaay too many passergers on this ship right now.
And it's good to get "high danger chances" but they don't determine the winner by such things. Stars have to start putting the puck in the net right now or this very promising team is looking at a very unsettling off-season.
"Edmonton got Grade-AAA chances and finished them, while Dallas got Grade-A chances they didn’t."
Hmm....what's the missing ingredient here?
Oh, right, there's a guy in the net whose job it is to stop the puck from going in. And right now, for the 2nd consecutive year, Stuart Skinner is outplaying Jake Oettinger.
Otter isn't the problem with this team but there's zero dispute that the Edmonton goalie has been better. Either that, or the Stars skaters simply aren't very good at putting the puck in the net.
Otter has a 0.842 save percentage in this series. He had a .901 save percentage last year. Combined he's given up 28 goals in 9 WCF vs Edmonton. Otter isn't the problem but he also hasn't been the answer.
Stuart freakin' Skinner, OTOH, has a .929 save pct in those same 9 games. Despite facing 20 more shots than Otter Skinner has given up 10 fewer(!) goals.
If the Stars can't get better goaltending from Oettinger than the Oilers get from Skinner there's zero chance of them winning. Some of that is beating Skinner more often but they could use some game-changing, momentum-shifting, series-deciding saves from Jake Oettinger.
Great write up Robert. Matches what I saw and not what ESPN told me. I think this mostly boils down to which version of Skinner and Otter we see. Looking forward to tomorrow.
Why didn't Benn do or say anything about the high stick?! I mean, that could have at least given us some life. We also need to start taking the body on McDavid. No one is finishing checks on him. He's just allowed to free flow. The Stars are allowing him to be way too comfortable out there. I feel like we played a good game. Our mistakes were fatal. Otter needed to make a couple of big saves. He just looked slow to challenge and was beaten clean too many times. There's only so much we can say about the officiating.
Come back and take game 4. It's as simple as that. Remember that you're playing Stuart Skinner, not Dominik Hasek.
To be sure, trying to get a body on Conner McDavid is like trying to board a speeding train going 60 mph. He really is the best player in the world. Stars need to adopt the MacKinnon strategy, which is to clog the neutral zone and don't let him get that running start in the first place.
Another awesome hockey post.
Robert, reading the Internet comments on the X dot com hellsite is almost always a rookie mistake. Take it from me. 😂
The analytics are telling me what I saw with my eyes yesterday. This was in no way, shape, or form a 6-1 game. The Stars were the better team in pretty much every way except finishing chances. They lost because they didn't convert their chances and got burned a few times when they had to start playing high risk, high reward hockey in the 3rd period. A good baseball analogy would be going 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position while their opposition went 5 for 7. That's sports. I would not be shocked if there is mean reversion on both sides and the Stars end up stealing Game 4 and regaining home ice advantage. They have done it before against both the Avs and Jets. Goal differential means a lot to GMs and the analytics people during the course of the entire season, but in the playoffs only the wins count.
Wyatt Johnston is playing some of the worst hockey of his career right now. Part of it is the opposition -- he is being asked to play against the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Conner McDavid (weird guy with a weird house, but with the part Finnish girlfriend I have an idea here for Jim Nill to pursue in the offseason...but I digress). And part of it is that he is being asked to play with linemates who themselves are slumping. But I also think that his defensive play is getting exposed a bit in the playoffs. He's still basically a kid and he is playing like a guy who is both mentally and physically tired. DeBoer trusts him in every situation, and I would trust him in every situation, but he's definitely slumping, especially mentally.
I also think that Thomas Harley might be finally hitting a bit of a wall. He is also making mistakes and most of them seem to be mental.
The Moose is just fine. Don't change a thing with him, but his linemates need to step it up. Robo is still showing signs of getting there, but he's not quite there yet.
I didn't have Stuart Skinner (FFS) outplaying Oettingerer so far, but that's the case in the last two games. The same thing happened last year, too. Here, too, I hope for a bit of mean reversion in Game 4.
Anyway, I can go on and on, but this comment is already way, way, WAY too long.
Agree on Harley and Johnston looking like they've hit a wall. They've played a lot of games with a lot of heavy minutes the last three springs.
Still, those guys have to come through. Waaaay too many passergers on this ship right now.
And it's good to get "high danger chances" but they don't determine the winner by such things. Stars have to start putting the puck in the net right now or this very promising team is looking at a very unsettling off-season.
This pretty much sums it up.
"Edmonton got Grade-AAA chances and finished them, while Dallas got Grade-A chances they didn’t."
Hmm....what's the missing ingredient here?
Oh, right, there's a guy in the net whose job it is to stop the puck from going in. And right now, for the 2nd consecutive year, Stuart Skinner is outplaying Jake Oettinger.
Otter isn't the problem with this team but there's zero dispute that the Edmonton goalie has been better. Either that, or the Stars skaters simply aren't very good at putting the puck in the net.
Otter has a 0.842 save percentage in this series. He had a .901 save percentage last year. Combined he's given up 28 goals in 9 WCF vs Edmonton. Otter isn't the problem but he also hasn't been the answer.
Stuart freakin' Skinner, OTOH, has a .929 save pct in those same 9 games. Despite facing 20 more shots than Otter Skinner has given up 10 fewer(!) goals.
If the Stars can't get better goaltending from Oettinger than the Oilers get from Skinner there's zero chance of them winning. Some of that is beating Skinner more often but they could use some game-changing, momentum-shifting, series-deciding saves from Jake Oettinger.
It was good to hear you on the Ticket again today.
Appreciate you listening!