(Only 5 Rambles tonight. The Stars also only put in half an effort for this one so that seems fair. They're only three games into the season so no one can make projections yet anyway.)
1. Two minutes into the first period, the Wild had already taken 7! shots on goal. At that pace, Jake Oettinger was projected to have faced 210 shots by the end of the third period. I guess that's one way to get his save percentage up.
2. The Wyatt Johnston goal in the first period - filthy - just filthy. It was his third goal in 7 periods of hockey. So...with 79.666 games remaining at that point, Johnston was projected to score 105 goals on the season. Leon Draisatl better be dusting off that Rocket Richard Trophy.
3. The hit on Matt Duchene contacted his head but it didn't look like there was intent and it was a tough call for the refs to make at full-speed. Should intent matter? Since the NHL continues to profess concussions don't happen in hockey and that CTE is not an actual thing, I bet they don't really care and hope we don't care either.
Hopefully, Duchene is OK. He has been a spinorama-possessed machine this year and his absence would be felt. Especially by Tyler Seguin.
4. The third period was fugly but so was most of the game. The eyetest largely matched the analytics in this one. The Faksa-Bastian-Anyone line, at both ends of the ice, looked like the black hole some feared heading into the season.
Not sure the Stars deserved the W (other than a spurt in the second) but they probably won't give it back either.
Also, any time of daybWild fans can be given even more to complain about than they already do is a good time in my books.
5. Once again, the Stars' goaltender was their best player even if he didn't have to stop 208 shots as was widely projected by league statisticians.
All Jake Oettinger did was stop 38 of 40 shots (.950 GAA) with 2.75 goals saved above expected.
Faksa is a very easy player to root for. I've always enjoyed talking to him, and he is just a delight as a person. But Esa Lindell goals seem to get the whole bench really excitied, as almost any defensive defenseman scoring will do.
Some more of my thoughts because this is what your readers pay for:
- To start with some good things, the defensive unit overall played very well. 2 PP goals and 0 even strength goals against from the hottest powerplay in the league is nothing to sneeze at. In general it seemed like gaps were getting closed, outlets were being connected, and most of the "danger" from the Wild came from the outside.
- I liked Bourque's game a lot again tonight. I hope the point start to catch up with him because he's getting chances and creating while also playing some great defensive hockey. Amazing what confidence can do for a young lad. He got kind of lost in the mix from about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd to the 10 minute mark of the 3rd, but I think that's mostly the line juggling at play.
- On the mention of Rantanen's insane passing, watching him and Robertson is both a delight and extraordinarily funny to me. Rantanen is a better skater, sure, but both those guys are gigantic lumbering forwards who can really lull you to sleep. There are so many plays where both of them look a stride behind a puck carrier, or like they aren't getting to a loose puck in time, and they just kind of stretch out and keep their feet moving and drape themselves over an opponent to cause just enough chaos to give them a chance to steel the puck. Then the second the puck is on their stick they absolutely lock in and make plays on a shoestring. Something about it is just so funny to me. One second they look like they're 2 feet out of a play and the next second they've centered a pass to a guy no one knew was in the slot for a scoring chance. It must be so annoying as a defender to think you have a step on your man and are breaking the puck out cleanly, only to end up in the corner with your pants down while someone gets a shot on goal against in the crease. The closest non-hockey comp I can come up with is how in the NFL it looks like Pat Mahomes is about to get sacked on every single play but he manages to keep it alive for 5-10 seconds every time to allow his receivers to get open.
- Hintz also looked like he was flying. Good start to the year from him. It looks like he's re-engaged the power forward in him a bit more to start, which is a nice re-evolution (devolution?) from the last couple of years where I felt he was playing a bit too much of the beautiful game and going east-west rather than wrecking dudes. We'll see how it holds up with his health, but his speed, physicality and quick release are extremely dangerous next to Rantanen.
- To stay on forwards, I'm eternally impressed by Seguin's evolution into a really strong checking forward. The skill is still there and he had some nice set-ups and opportunities (and remember last year he was on pace for his most productive season of his career until the injury), but he's really a case study in evolving your game to stay relevant. After the quad surgery from the bubble it was pretty reasonable to assume he was done being an impact player. A guy who relied on his speed and release to be an elite scorer had just lost his speed and hip strength for his shot, and he wasn't a PKer. Instead, he's gotten really good at positional hockey, has become a strong forechecker, and has learned how to take his routes into the slot rather than speed his way through. One wonders if Pavelski helped Seguin's game mature as much as we know he helped Johnston's, Robo's, and Hintz's.
- One thing I am done with already though is the elite player - elite player - knucklehead composition of the top two lines. I like Sam Steel and Colin Blackwell for the value they bring to the lineup, but that value is not in the top six and it shows. They're effective at causing chaos on the forecheck and puck retrievals, but it becomes pretty clear pretty quickly that they are not really keeping offensive plays alive with their linemates. Gulutzan is shuffling those guys off those lines within 5-10 minutes of every game, so it seems like it's time to just start with the lines that are good. It's similar to how Woodcroft (and now Knoblauch) galaxy brain themselves with McDavid-Draisaitl and split them up until they're desperately needed. Wonder if Gully maybe learned the wrong lessons from those two.
- Speaking of wrong lessons - the powerplay has so much skill on it that they're going to score goals, but it's a little concerning to see how scrambly and non-dominant it is so far. There don't seem to be a lot of set plays or 5-man unit motions in the arsenal just yet. Lots of guys playing 2-man triangles or just trying to bait cross-crease passes (which, hey, work sometimes), but not a lot of movement at the points, and 0 one-timer threats to draw defenders out and make space in the slot. Part of this is personnel - Harley not on PP1 is malpractice - and part of it seems to be on scheme. Again this is where a Gulutzan quote concerns me. In the preseason he talked about not wanting to "over-coach" the powerplay to ensure that they have creative freedom. I worry that the powerplay is under-coached right now. When you're a teacher they tell you that it's always easier to be the bad guy to start and lay off as the year goes on. That way you instill the rules in your students' minds and they get used to being accountable to those rules, and then you can start to give them more freedom as you build trust with them. If you start with full freedom, you'll never get the accountability or trust needed to have a calm and focused learning environment. With a powerplay it's similar. If you start with letting your players freestyle, it becomes much harder to instill discipline in them once they've built the habit that they can do what they want with the puck as long as it sometimes scores. Better to have a more "boring" approach to start and then infuse it with creativity, than the other way around.
- Not to keep harping on Gulutzan but getting dominated twice in three games and once by a team on the back half of a back-to-back is concerning with the Stars' level of talent. Part of it is players being soft on the puck but part of it also seems to be a focus issue. Maybe if they were less focused on hand-to-hand combat and more focused on possessing the puck, they'd keep momentum for longer stretches.
- Jake was very good again, especially in the last 10 minutes of the game, but again I don't like that second goal. Wrist shot from distance, not that much of a screen, goes through his armpit.
I think "getting dominated" is a little unfair. The Stars dominated Winnipeg until the two shorthanded goals in the third, and then their goalie outdueled Wedgewood in a game where they clearly weren't at their best. And finally, they weathered an early flurry at home before taking over the game to go up 3-0, until they lost two skaters in a big moment and the Wild got life from a couple of power plays.
Not ideal, at all. And you can't dismiss some of the "Getting hemmed in" sequences either, whether on the PK or no. But the power play has actually been fantastic so far, both in terms of shot generation and conversion.
I think there are issues, for sure. Gulutzan has acknowledged much, like he did after the game last night, pointing to puck play, security at the blue line, and breakouts as areas they need to clean up. But going 3-0-0 is a pretty good floor to have while you work on reaching your ceiling, I think.
Also, I love these epistolary novels masquerading as comments. Keep 'em coming. Maybe I'll put a mini-paywall in front of just your comments if they keep being this meaty.
Yeah on getting dominated, I was more thinking the Colorado game and the beginning and end of the Minnesota game. Winnipeg was mostly very good except for the late 3rd period shenanigans. But yes, 3-0-0 against the top opposition in the Central is a great start either way.
Interesting that the powerplay has statistically been very good. I guess I can admit that my eye test might not be perfect lol. It just seems scrambly to me a lot of the time and it's a testament to the skill out there that it's still so productive even with that messiness.
One issue on the power play, that was an issue last year in the playoffs when Benn was taken off the top PP unit is not having someone dominant in the face-off circle to start the PP. Too often the Stars have to go retrieve the puck out of their defensive zone and try to get back into the offensive zone without losing the puck and set up. They waste way too much time doing this.
I'd be curious to go through each of their PP face-offs so far, because the Stars are actually 7th in the NHL in power play faceoff % (and third in the West). But perhaps they've lost some especially crucial ones that have an outsized impact on our perception of their skill in that area.
Was lucky enough to be in the barn last night and Roope popped even more in person than he does in the clips I've seen (who am I telling, you know that, you were there). It really is incredible what he can do when he's "on."
I made a comment to someone at the game that Hintz must have a grudge against Minnesota, because his playoff series against them in 2023 felt a lot like what we saw last night. Just a dominant level of speed, power, and scoring all in one package. Pretty good outfits too, I've heard.
10÷2 R.R. Wild-Stars
(Only 5 Rambles tonight. The Stars also only put in half an effort for this one so that seems fair. They're only three games into the season so no one can make projections yet anyway.)
1. Two minutes into the first period, the Wild had already taken 7! shots on goal. At that pace, Jake Oettinger was projected to have faced 210 shots by the end of the third period. I guess that's one way to get his save percentage up.
2. The Wyatt Johnston goal in the first period - filthy - just filthy. It was his third goal in 7 periods of hockey. So...with 79.666 games remaining at that point, Johnston was projected to score 105 goals on the season. Leon Draisatl better be dusting off that Rocket Richard Trophy.
3. The hit on Matt Duchene contacted his head but it didn't look like there was intent and it was a tough call for the refs to make at full-speed. Should intent matter? Since the NHL continues to profess concussions don't happen in hockey and that CTE is not an actual thing, I bet they don't really care and hope we don't care either.
Hopefully, Duchene is OK. He has been a spinorama-possessed machine this year and his absence would be felt. Especially by Tyler Seguin.
4. The third period was fugly but so was most of the game. The eyetest largely matched the analytics in this one. The Faksa-Bastian-Anyone line, at both ends of the ice, looked like the black hole some feared heading into the season.
Not sure the Stars deserved the W (other than a spurt in the second) but they probably won't give it back either.
Also, any time of daybWild fans can be given even more to complain about than they already do is a good time in my books.
5. Once again, the Stars' goaltender was their best player even if he didn't have to stop 208 shots as was widely projected by league statisticians.
All Jake Oettinger did was stop 38 of 40 shots (.950 GAA) with 2.75 goals saved above expected.
Hmmm? Maybe Peter DeBoer was wrong.
huge if true
I enjoyed reading this offering.
You're right- Rantanen's passing (and vision) is astounding. It's a real treat to be able watch him in person so often now.
Great read Robert! Who would you say is the player you get hyped for most when the score, Lindell would have to be up there for mine … or Faksa
Faksa is a very easy player to root for. I've always enjoyed talking to him, and he is just a delight as a person. But Esa Lindell goals seem to get the whole bench really excitied, as almost any defensive defenseman scoring will do.
Some more of my thoughts because this is what your readers pay for:
- To start with some good things, the defensive unit overall played very well. 2 PP goals and 0 even strength goals against from the hottest powerplay in the league is nothing to sneeze at. In general it seemed like gaps were getting closed, outlets were being connected, and most of the "danger" from the Wild came from the outside.
- I liked Bourque's game a lot again tonight. I hope the point start to catch up with him because he's getting chances and creating while also playing some great defensive hockey. Amazing what confidence can do for a young lad. He got kind of lost in the mix from about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd to the 10 minute mark of the 3rd, but I think that's mostly the line juggling at play.
- On the mention of Rantanen's insane passing, watching him and Robertson is both a delight and extraordinarily funny to me. Rantanen is a better skater, sure, but both those guys are gigantic lumbering forwards who can really lull you to sleep. There are so many plays where both of them look a stride behind a puck carrier, or like they aren't getting to a loose puck in time, and they just kind of stretch out and keep their feet moving and drape themselves over an opponent to cause just enough chaos to give them a chance to steel the puck. Then the second the puck is on their stick they absolutely lock in and make plays on a shoestring. Something about it is just so funny to me. One second they look like they're 2 feet out of a play and the next second they've centered a pass to a guy no one knew was in the slot for a scoring chance. It must be so annoying as a defender to think you have a step on your man and are breaking the puck out cleanly, only to end up in the corner with your pants down while someone gets a shot on goal against in the crease. The closest non-hockey comp I can come up with is how in the NFL it looks like Pat Mahomes is about to get sacked on every single play but he manages to keep it alive for 5-10 seconds every time to allow his receivers to get open.
- Hintz also looked like he was flying. Good start to the year from him. It looks like he's re-engaged the power forward in him a bit more to start, which is a nice re-evolution (devolution?) from the last couple of years where I felt he was playing a bit too much of the beautiful game and going east-west rather than wrecking dudes. We'll see how it holds up with his health, but his speed, physicality and quick release are extremely dangerous next to Rantanen.
- To stay on forwards, I'm eternally impressed by Seguin's evolution into a really strong checking forward. The skill is still there and he had some nice set-ups and opportunities (and remember last year he was on pace for his most productive season of his career until the injury), but he's really a case study in evolving your game to stay relevant. After the quad surgery from the bubble it was pretty reasonable to assume he was done being an impact player. A guy who relied on his speed and release to be an elite scorer had just lost his speed and hip strength for his shot, and he wasn't a PKer. Instead, he's gotten really good at positional hockey, has become a strong forechecker, and has learned how to take his routes into the slot rather than speed his way through. One wonders if Pavelski helped Seguin's game mature as much as we know he helped Johnston's, Robo's, and Hintz's.
- One thing I am done with already though is the elite player - elite player - knucklehead composition of the top two lines. I like Sam Steel and Colin Blackwell for the value they bring to the lineup, but that value is not in the top six and it shows. They're effective at causing chaos on the forecheck and puck retrievals, but it becomes pretty clear pretty quickly that they are not really keeping offensive plays alive with their linemates. Gulutzan is shuffling those guys off those lines within 5-10 minutes of every game, so it seems like it's time to just start with the lines that are good. It's similar to how Woodcroft (and now Knoblauch) galaxy brain themselves with McDavid-Draisaitl and split them up until they're desperately needed. Wonder if Gully maybe learned the wrong lessons from those two.
- Speaking of wrong lessons - the powerplay has so much skill on it that they're going to score goals, but it's a little concerning to see how scrambly and non-dominant it is so far. There don't seem to be a lot of set plays or 5-man unit motions in the arsenal just yet. Lots of guys playing 2-man triangles or just trying to bait cross-crease passes (which, hey, work sometimes), but not a lot of movement at the points, and 0 one-timer threats to draw defenders out and make space in the slot. Part of this is personnel - Harley not on PP1 is malpractice - and part of it seems to be on scheme. Again this is where a Gulutzan quote concerns me. In the preseason he talked about not wanting to "over-coach" the powerplay to ensure that they have creative freedom. I worry that the powerplay is under-coached right now. When you're a teacher they tell you that it's always easier to be the bad guy to start and lay off as the year goes on. That way you instill the rules in your students' minds and they get used to being accountable to those rules, and then you can start to give them more freedom as you build trust with them. If you start with full freedom, you'll never get the accountability or trust needed to have a calm and focused learning environment. With a powerplay it's similar. If you start with letting your players freestyle, it becomes much harder to instill discipline in them once they've built the habit that they can do what they want with the puck as long as it sometimes scores. Better to have a more "boring" approach to start and then infuse it with creativity, than the other way around.
- Not to keep harping on Gulutzan but getting dominated twice in three games and once by a team on the back half of a back-to-back is concerning with the Stars' level of talent. Part of it is players being soft on the puck but part of it also seems to be a focus issue. Maybe if they were less focused on hand-to-hand combat and more focused on possessing the puck, they'd keep momentum for longer stretches.
- Jake was very good again, especially in the last 10 minutes of the game, but again I don't like that second goal. Wrist shot from distance, not that much of a screen, goes through his armpit.
I think "getting dominated" is a little unfair. The Stars dominated Winnipeg until the two shorthanded goals in the third, and then their goalie outdueled Wedgewood in a game where they clearly weren't at their best. And finally, they weathered an early flurry at home before taking over the game to go up 3-0, until they lost two skaters in a big moment and the Wild got life from a couple of power plays.
Not ideal, at all. And you can't dismiss some of the "Getting hemmed in" sequences either, whether on the PK or no. But the power play has actually been fantastic so far, both in terms of shot generation and conversion.
I think there are issues, for sure. Gulutzan has acknowledged much, like he did after the game last night, pointing to puck play, security at the blue line, and breakouts as areas they need to clean up. But going 3-0-0 is a pretty good floor to have while you work on reaching your ceiling, I think.
Also, I love these epistolary novels masquerading as comments. Keep 'em coming. Maybe I'll put a mini-paywall in front of just your comments if they keep being this meaty.
Yeah on getting dominated, I was more thinking the Colorado game and the beginning and end of the Minnesota game. Winnipeg was mostly very good except for the late 3rd period shenanigans. But yes, 3-0-0 against the top opposition in the Central is a great start either way.
Interesting that the powerplay has statistically been very good. I guess I can admit that my eye test might not be perfect lol. It just seems scrambly to me a lot of the time and it's a testament to the skill out there that it's still so productive even with that messiness.
Yep. Natural Stat Trick has them #1 in the league in xGF/60 on the power play, with Edmonton just behind at #2. Pretty good. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pp&score=all&rate=y&team=all&loc=B&gpf=410&fd=&td=
(Now, they also have the 2nd-worst xGA/60 on the power play, but we'll assume that's an abberation for now after the Winnipeg adventures. I think.)
Oh wow, hey that's pretty good! Yes I assume they won't be giving up 2 shorthanded goals every 3 games this year. At least I hope not!
One issue on the power play, that was an issue last year in the playoffs when Benn was taken off the top PP unit is not having someone dominant in the face-off circle to start the PP. Too often the Stars have to go retrieve the puck out of their defensive zone and try to get back into the offensive zone without losing the puck and set up. They waste way too much time doing this.
I'd be curious to go through each of their PP face-offs so far, because the Stars are actually 7th in the NHL in power play faceoff % (and third in the West). But perhaps they've lost some especially crucial ones that have an outsized impact on our perception of their skill in that area.
https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=faceoffpercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20252026&seasonTo=20252026&gameType=2&sort=ppFaceoffPct&page=0&pageSize=50
Great tune by Couch! Hope for more music suggestions!
We'll have one in every AfterThoughts. Keep an eye out!
Was lucky enough to be in the barn last night and Roope popped even more in person than he does in the clips I've seen (who am I telling, you know that, you were there). It really is incredible what he can do when he's "on."
I made a comment to someone at the game that Hintz must have a grudge against Minnesota, because his playoff series against them in 2023 felt a lot like what we saw last night. Just a dominant level of speed, power, and scoring all in one package. Pretty good outfits too, I've heard.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hintzro01/gamelog/2023