As the Discord's resident Jake hater these days, I think that Rooney goal is a good encapsulation of my frustrations with him this year. I don't think Jake is a bad goalie. I think Jake is an average/above-average goalie who has the ceiling, contract, and PR of an elite goalie without having really earned it. I know we can't blame goalies for every tough goal and game context matter etc etc etc, but Jake has the 6th highest AAV among goalies in the league (5th if you remove Carey Price) and the 17th highest save percentage of goalies who have played at least 12 games, and that's frustrating.
Back to the goal, my frustration is just at Jake's over-movement. His strengths are that he's extremely athletic, technically sound, and good at reading plays, but sometimes strengths 1 & 3 conspire to betray strength 2, and this is a case of that. He's reading the play well here, and reacts well to the eventual goal-scorer receiving the puck int he slot, pushing out to the top of his crease to take give the shooter less space to score. But then once he's done the good initial puck-tracking and positioning work, he over-anticipates the shot and pushes himself out of the line of fire for the puck, as if he was a soccer goalkeeper guessing on the PK. Why is he guessing there? Going into the butterfly and making himself big as the shot is being wound-up would allow him to cover most of the net, and then use his reflexes to either glove a glove-side shot or blocker away the blocker side. He could have even pushed out a bit more to play the angle more drastically. Instead, he pushes one way and tries to compensate the other. If he simply goes down and makes himself big is there a chance the puck still goes in? Of course. But that shot - while good - doesn't look like it painted a corner really and would have been eminently save-able, if Jake didn't over-play the situation and take himself out of it. I think this is the second time in 2 or 3 games where Jake has given up a similar goal by guessing-wrong and pushing off the wrong way.
My point in this criticism isn't to say Jake needs to have 100% of these shots or that elite goalies never give up non-elite shots. Both would be ridiculous assertions, and nitpicking at singular goals like this is probably going overboard to start with. My issue, though, is that we seem to get one or two of these borderline goals every game, and for a team that is constantly in one-goal games and comebacks so far, it can be back-breaking. It's fine for goalies to get beat out of position here and there, but to get beat out of position at least once (and often twice) per game, is not what you pay $8.5m for.
This has become a rant, but I also don't really think the blame rests on Jake. He played what one AHL year and then was pressed into starting a bit too early by the bubble followed by the Ben Bishop and then Anton Khudobin injuries. As a result, the ticky-tack stuff that beats him (bad angle shots from the sides of the net, long-range semi screened shots, wrist shots where he's too deep and has to guess on direction) have been his weaknesses since he played for my alma mater as a college student, and are things that along a normal developmental trajectory would have been cleaned up. Instead of having a 2nd year in the AHL and/or a full year as a backup to be able to refine his game, Jake had to learn how to win games by hook or by crook from basically the moment he stepped into the league. Being good enough to win games on a good team and good enough to shut down the opposition are two different tiers of skill in the NHL, and right now Jake is the former while everyone talks about him as the latter, and it tends to hold the team back deep in the playoffs.
I also think that the Stars should be getting just a little bit more out of their starting goaltender. But he still wins. He still wins a lot. That hasn’t changed. He knows how to shift into a higher gear when his team needs it. And it’s important to remember that the Stars are breaking in a new hybrid defensive system while missing three regulars on defense. But yeah.
My ultimate read on the goal is he is guessing a tad, but only insofar as he wants to cover the far side a bit more, presuming that's the most likely place for the shot to come, following the momentum of the pass.
At that range, a one-timer is gonne be hard to catch up to, so he's trying to cover what he feels is the more vulnerable part of the net (far side) and then finds himself perhaps a tad too far to reach back and snag the near-side shot with his glove. But that's why shooters go against the grain in the first place--they plan for that, too.
Obviously one goal or even one game is no referendum on Oettinger as a goalie, but I think you're onto some of the common themes with this comment/rant. He hasn't yet proven himself to be what the Stars need him to be, but then again, he's also stolen them a few playoff series (and arguably both of the first two rounds last spring). It's easy to forget just how high his floor is because the team keeps falling short of their ceiling, but then, every goalie isn't a top-tier one until they are. And it feels like that could still happen any given year.
Excellent as usual. Love Capobianco's play. He's been solid in a tough situation! Maximizing opportunities! Classy move to name Keller as First Star too!
I’ll go with some guy who knows a thing or two about hockey… Gretzky said I don’t care if our goalie lets in a few weak ones… as long as he makes all the key stops we really need them! Might be descriptive of Otter.
As the Discord's resident Jake hater these days, I think that Rooney goal is a good encapsulation of my frustrations with him this year. I don't think Jake is a bad goalie. I think Jake is an average/above-average goalie who has the ceiling, contract, and PR of an elite goalie without having really earned it. I know we can't blame goalies for every tough goal and game context matter etc etc etc, but Jake has the 6th highest AAV among goalies in the league (5th if you remove Carey Price) and the 17th highest save percentage of goalies who have played at least 12 games, and that's frustrating.
Back to the goal, my frustration is just at Jake's over-movement. His strengths are that he's extremely athletic, technically sound, and good at reading plays, but sometimes strengths 1 & 3 conspire to betray strength 2, and this is a case of that. He's reading the play well here, and reacts well to the eventual goal-scorer receiving the puck int he slot, pushing out to the top of his crease to take give the shooter less space to score. But then once he's done the good initial puck-tracking and positioning work, he over-anticipates the shot and pushes himself out of the line of fire for the puck, as if he was a soccer goalkeeper guessing on the PK. Why is he guessing there? Going into the butterfly and making himself big as the shot is being wound-up would allow him to cover most of the net, and then use his reflexes to either glove a glove-side shot or blocker away the blocker side. He could have even pushed out a bit more to play the angle more drastically. Instead, he pushes one way and tries to compensate the other. If he simply goes down and makes himself big is there a chance the puck still goes in? Of course. But that shot - while good - doesn't look like it painted a corner really and would have been eminently save-able, if Jake didn't over-play the situation and take himself out of it. I think this is the second time in 2 or 3 games where Jake has given up a similar goal by guessing-wrong and pushing off the wrong way.
My point in this criticism isn't to say Jake needs to have 100% of these shots or that elite goalies never give up non-elite shots. Both would be ridiculous assertions, and nitpicking at singular goals like this is probably going overboard to start with. My issue, though, is that we seem to get one or two of these borderline goals every game, and for a team that is constantly in one-goal games and comebacks so far, it can be back-breaking. It's fine for goalies to get beat out of position here and there, but to get beat out of position at least once (and often twice) per game, is not what you pay $8.5m for.
This has become a rant, but I also don't really think the blame rests on Jake. He played what one AHL year and then was pressed into starting a bit too early by the bubble followed by the Ben Bishop and then Anton Khudobin injuries. As a result, the ticky-tack stuff that beats him (bad angle shots from the sides of the net, long-range semi screened shots, wrist shots where he's too deep and has to guess on direction) have been his weaknesses since he played for my alma mater as a college student, and are things that along a normal developmental trajectory would have been cleaned up. Instead of having a 2nd year in the AHL and/or a full year as a backup to be able to refine his game, Jake had to learn how to win games by hook or by crook from basically the moment he stepped into the league. Being good enough to win games on a good team and good enough to shut down the opposition are two different tiers of skill in the NHL, and right now Jake is the former while everyone talks about him as the latter, and it tends to hold the team back deep in the playoffs.
I also think that the Stars should be getting just a little bit more out of their starting goaltender. But he still wins. He still wins a lot. That hasn’t changed. He knows how to shift into a higher gear when his team needs it. And it’s important to remember that the Stars are breaking in a new hybrid defensive system while missing three regulars on defense. But yeah.
My ultimate read on the goal is he is guessing a tad, but only insofar as he wants to cover the far side a bit more, presuming that's the most likely place for the shot to come, following the momentum of the pass.
At that range, a one-timer is gonne be hard to catch up to, so he's trying to cover what he feels is the more vulnerable part of the net (far side) and then finds himself perhaps a tad too far to reach back and snag the near-side shot with his glove. But that's why shooters go against the grain in the first place--they plan for that, too.
Obviously one goal or even one game is no referendum on Oettinger as a goalie, but I think you're onto some of the common themes with this comment/rant. He hasn't yet proven himself to be what the Stars need him to be, but then again, he's also stolen them a few playoff series (and arguably both of the first two rounds last spring). It's easy to forget just how high his floor is because the team keeps falling short of their ceiling, but then, every goalie isn't a top-tier one until they are. And it feels like that could still happen any given year.
I might be warming up a bit to the new head coach and the system changes he has brought to the Stars, especially on the defensive end.
Excellent as usual. Love Capobianco's play. He's been solid in a tough situation! Maximizing opportunities! Classy move to name Keller as First Star too!
I’ll go with some guy who knows a thing or two about hockey… Gretzky said I don’t care if our goalie lets in a few weak ones… as long as he makes all the key stops we really need them! Might be descriptive of Otter.
Ah, Robert, you got me there at the end. Grief is a tricky thing, especially around the holidays.
Peace. Be good, and have fun my friend.
love all your write-ups. thank you for these articulate, beautiful words on grief today.
Thank you for reading, Lindsey. We are all in this together.