Game 13 AfterThoughts: Moose Loosed

Two-goal deficits are just an appetizer

The Stars have come back from two-goal deficits in five of their last seven games. And in all of those games, they’ve come away with at least one point.

But this game was a little extra special, because the Stars decided to come back from two two-goal deficits in the same game. After falling behind 2-0 early, Mikko Rantanen made it 2-1. But after many chances to equalize, Edmonton restored the two-goal lead in the third period on a goal from Connor McDavid. And I guess that was the Oilers’ fatal mistake.

Look, nobody on that Dallas team wants to keep giving up the first goal (as they’ve done in eight of their last nine games). It’s a hard way to live, always coming back, and the Stars have only recently shaken their old reputation for starting games too slowly. It’s not ideal, and every player tonight said as much.

But the most telling thing about why the Stars keep falling behind was said by Glen Gulutzan after the game, when asked why he thinks the Stars keep falling behind early in games. Gulutzan took a breath, then with a frank expression on his face, he answered bluntly:

“I don’t know.”

After that admission, Gulutzan then said he does have a theory about what’s causing it, and he explained it like this:

“I think there’s still part of us that’s tentative. And it’s coming out, it’s working its way out of the system. That’s really what I believe. And I think we’ve got a great group of guys that wanna do everything right. But what we’ve been talking about this last week is, we need to just play hockey. And we’ve got all these system changes and everything, but we’ve got them down now. But within all the structure, there’s gotta be hockey players. And I’m trying now, as a coach, to free them up to play. Half the game’s random, and in that random part of the game, we need instinct, and hockey guys. And that’s where I’m trying to free them up. I think it’s gonna get out of our system very soon. And when it does, I think the sky’s the limit.”

-Glen Gulutzan, on why the Stars have been giving up the first goal so often

I think that’s a really honest answer from a coach who really believes this group can do great things. And at a certain level—especially when you look at the goals that Edmonton scored tonight—you know there is some exasperation there with the mistakes that are burning them.

The Stars were outchancing the Oilers pretty heavily through 40 minutes, but they’d been burned by mistakes that even a depleted version of this team still shouldn’t be making.

That’s why it seemed like McDavid’s goal to make it 3-1 should have been crushing. Dallas had chances as the game went on, but they couldn’t score. And Stuart Skinner was once again on his way to a win in Dallas that felt far more inevitable than the eye-test made it seem like it should be.

But the thing about this team is that they have Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston, and Miro Heiskanen. And when you have players like that, belief never really dies. It just goes to sleep for a period or two.

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Still, playing without three of your four starting centers is a tough row to hoe, and no mistake. But the Stars made it harder immediately when Thomas Harley found himself losing his position on Jack Roslovic. That wasn’t the final blow or anything, but a one-handed pass then got slipped over to Vasily Podkolzin for a far-too-easy goal just 3:40 into the opening period.

Ilya Lyubushkin didn’t help matters, though, as he left Podkolzin wide-open to go over to help Harley, only to get caught perfectly in between, giving up the slam-dunk pass.

Mavrik Bourque is also in frame at the end there, but to my eyes, Bourque is properly keeping one eye on the point, rather than doubling Podkolzin with Lyubushkin. Whether Lyubushkin just gets unlucky or should have stayed back to block the pass, this was a pretty clear example of one mistake turning into more.

Speaking of which, Esa Lindell’s penalty on McDavid (which was a pretty marginal cross check on its own, but a pretty likely call once it sent McDavid to the ice) couldn’t have been more ill-timed. Draisaitl only needed 15 seconds to score from his office after Bouchard made a solid keep at the point.

But even that didn’t need to spoil the party, because early in the second period, Mikko Rantanen got a breakaway right out of the gate. But as seems to happen so often against the Oilers, the chance wasn’t converted, as Rantanen nailed the post squarely. (Though the Oilers would end up equaling that in a karmic balancing act later on.) And shortly after that, Bichsel took a boarding penalty, and momentum was back on the Oilers’ side.

But Rantanen wasn’t going to be stopped in this one, as he drew a penalty on Draisaitl that looked almost identical to the Lindell penalty on McDavid. (And in fact, it looked like Rantanen was saying as much to Draisaitl, who was barking at him on his way to the box.)

Rantanen then converted the power play by scoring his 300th career goal.

The play from Seguin here to control the hard rim-around and bump it to Johnston off the wall key here. Of course, Robertson’s shot (and Johnston’s rebound off the post) to generate the eventual goal by Rantanen was also quite important, too. That swung the game back into livable territory for Dallas, as their power play has so often done this year.

But despite getting more looks, including yet another power play, the Stars couldn’t climb back to level in the second period. In fact, it nearly went to 3-1 for Edmonton late in the second period, only for DeSmith to rob Evan Bouchard with the glove on a Grade-A scoring chance. At the time, a 3-1 lead for the Oilers seemed like it would have sealed things quickly and quietly.

Even after that save, the frustration was palpable on the Dallas bench as the second period ended. Sure, Edmonton wasn’t playing a particularly clean game either, but good chances weren’t getting put on net quickly enough, and scrambles inevitably saw the puck bounce out to the wrong side.

In the third period, that frustration reached a crescendo when McDavid scored off the rush after Ryan Nugent-Hopkins found him on a 3-on-2 to extend the lead.

Maybe the Stars’ grand plan to restore their two-goal deficit was all a brilliant scheme, though. This is my theory, and it is a bad one.

Because while it seemed like that goal should quell any potential comeback, the Stars have this one player, not sure if you’ve heard of him, named Mikko Rantanen. And Wyatt Johnston found him in the guts of the ice for his second goal of the night to wake the building back up.

(Don’t overlook Robertson’s smart leave here, either. He knows that puck isn’t for him, and that allows it to get where it needs to go.)

From there, things started getting muckier in the neutral zone, with Edmonton really trying to dig in at the blue line to deny entries. But Robertson made a slick pass from the wall to create just such an entry for the top line, and then the Stars got a break, as a Johnston shot from the slot ticked off the back of Rantanen’s leg, then bounced off the wall behind the net, and out perfectly for Heiskanen, who buried it before Skinner could find it.

Overtime hasn’t been kind to the Stars this year, as they’ve lost two games in the 3-on-3 portion, as well as a shootout loss to Florida. Their only win past 60 minutes this year was against Colorado in the second game of the season, when they won in the shootout.

And for the fifth time in a row, the Stars did not score a 3-on-3 goal. But neither did the Oilers, as Miro Heiskanen made two outstanding defensive plays on Connor McDavid to turn the puck over and frustrate a player for whom 3-on-3 seems like it should be a paradise.

Mikko Rantanen pointed out after the game that Heiskanen is one of maybe three players in the entire league who can skate with McDavid, and that’s something Stars fans remember hearing about many years ago, soon after Heiskanen had entered the league. But that McDavid toe drag goal in Game 6 back in 2024 has dampened enthusiasm about that matchup a fair bit.

Tonight, however, felt like a bit of a resurgence. The Stars got off the mat, multiple times, and then they dragged Edmonton onto familiar ground: the shootout.

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In the shootout loss in Florida, Jason Robertson took a different path to the net, coming down the right side instead of the left. Sergei Bobrovsky saved his shot.

I asked Robertson earlier this week about why he changed things up, and he said, with a wry smile: “Just trying something new. Maybe I shouldn’t have.”

So tonight, Robertson went back to basics, skating in from the left side, and waiting for Skinner to commit low or high. And as soon as Skinner started to guard the five-hole, Robertson buried it up high. Familiar ground, indeed.

Wyatt Johnston would follow suit in the third round, beating Skinner glove side again after Rantanen misfired and sent the puck over the net. Good players just make it seem so simple, don’t they?

Casey DeSmith also deserves praise in this game, and he got his big moment when he stopped McDavid in the shootout with a smart poke-check. He finished up by making the critical second save on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as well, and that was no more than he deserved.

DeSmith has backstopped the Stars to three of four points in games against the two Stanley Cup Finalists from the past two years. That’s pretty darn impressive—especially for a backup goalie.

ESotG

Lineups

The Stars began with this 11F/7D lineup, with Radek Faksa the most recent player to miss a game:

Robertson-Johnston-Rantanen
Seguin-Steel-Bourque
Bäck-Hryckowian-Blackwell
Erne-Bastian

Lindell-Heiskanen
Harley-Lyubsuhkin
Bichsel-Petrovic
Capobianco

DeSmith in goal

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Edmonton rolled with these combos:

RNH-McDavid-Mangiapane
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Savoie-Henrique-Frederic
Howard-Philp-Tomasek

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Regula

Skinner

AfterThoughts

• From the many people I’ve heard from tonight, it sounds like Bobblehead Night Distribution went very smoothly this time. I know that wasn’t always the case last year, but it’s worth noting when the team hears feedback and makes changes to improve the fan experience, and that’s what they did in this case. The biggest change, from what I understand, is the fans were collecting a bobblehead immediately upon arriving, rather than lining up in one of only a couple queues around the arena. Those little things matter.

• Mikko Rantanen didn’t quite score a Bobblehead Hat Trick, but a three-point night with two goals is about as close as you can get.

• Ice times were inflated in this one thanks to the full five-minute overtime. Heiskanen played 27:59, and five different forwards played 22-24 minutes as well, with Tyler Seguin of all people leading the up-fronters with 24:52.

• Gulutzan is well-aware that the Stars have been leaning on their top guys more than he would like, but when you lose three centers and your captain and a top-four defensemen, you kind of have to dig deep. And to the Stars’ credit, they’ve found a way to keep the season pointed in the right direction, even as they try to learn some new habits (and forget old ones).

• The top line got a scoring chance right off the hop, as Jason Robertson had room coming down the wing. And in fact, that line would continue to get great scoring chances through the first period. Emphasis on “chances” moreso than “scoring,” at least early on. In fact, their best looks came on the sequence where Rantanen drew a power play when they were already down 2-0, but you kind of felt like they really needed a quick 5v5 goal there more than a power play (call this a “duh” moment, right?) And sure enough, the power play ended with a sloppy too-many-men penalty, and momentum was lost. It turns out, goals are better than power plays. I am a hockey expert, folks.

• Kyle Capobianco drew the “Seventh Defenseman” straw tonight, but Gulutzan was looking for ways to keep him involved. One of those involved putting him out for a 4-on-4 set, which also served to save Heiskanen for the impending 5-on-4. Capobianco actually got a decent look on that shift, but his shot was blocked. His skating plays well in the NHL, though.

• Shortly before the Oilers’ opening goal, Mavrik Bourque had his stick slashed and broken next to the Oilers’ net. However, nothing was called, and things went downhill fast. In a penalty parade, it was the one call that was mildly surprising not to see get whistled down.

• Speaking of penalties, the Too Many Men call on Dallas was a perfect storm of a tired Jason Robertson (who had been out for the entire power play) and an optimistic drop pass by Harley to a bench not quite finished with a change, forcing the puck to be played. Dallas still scored a power play goal tonight, but it was perhaps a better sign that they scored another two goals at evens.

• Mavrik Bourque made a nice pass to Jason Robertson on the doorstep early in the third, but Skinner miraculously got a piece of the shot, keeping Edmonton’s lead intact. He always does seem to make that save, doesn’t he?

• Posts were kind to both goalies in this one, as Casey DeSmith found himself staring down McDavid coming down on a 2-on-1, only for the puck to whistle over his shoulder and clang off the post just as squarely as Rantanen’s shot in the second had done.

• Gulutzan put out two defenseman at the start of overtime (and for another faceoff later on), and it turned out to be the right call, as Dallas lost multiple faceoffs in the 3-on-3 session and needed to defend. After the game, Gulutzan said it was really about trying to “neutralize” McDavid and Draisaitl, and that it was a decision they made as a group, citing Alain Nasreddine as one driving voice in that conversation.

  • The idea, Gultuzan said, was to survive the shifts with McDavid, and then to win in the other 2:30 of overtime. And you know, that’s probably not the wrong way to look at it when you’re without Hintz and Duchene. McDavid in overtime is a terrifying sight at the best of times.

    • Unless you’re Miro Heiskanen, that is.