Game 1 WCSF AfterThoughts: Mikko Rantanen Opens Can, Again

I would say it's getting ridiculous, but that somehow is an understatement

Let’s start with the bare-bones numbers from the NHL:

Indeed, those numbers do not look real. Rantanen’s latest single-period hat trick—a phrase so absurd I had to pause after typing it—was enough all by itself to lead Dallas to a place they haven’t been since Donald Trump was president. The first time.

Well, “all by itself” is disingenuous, because this was, unlike Game 7, much more of a team win. Jake Oettinger absolutely outdueled Connor Hellebuyck, and no mistake. The Stars’ penalty kill also did what it did against Colorado, frustrating a power play unit that spend all year torching the rest of the NHL.

But Mikko Rantanen, man. Mikko Rantanen, who has to be the most patient, gracious superstar hockey player to be traded twice in three months. He is more than a rush threat, more than a power play merchant, and more than a power forward. But he can also be all three in one period, and he was tonight. Again.

It’s so surreal, though. For a long time, and certainly for most of my decade-plus writing about this team, the term “the Stars’ best player” usually came with an argument to be made. If you said it applied to Miro Heiskanen in recent years, you were less likely to draw debate, but you wouldn’t draw zero debate, especially as Heiskanen’s game tended toward more of a defensive and transition one rather than a hugely productive offensive style.

And hey, Jason Robertson shattered the 100-point ceiling a couple of years ago with a performance that set expectations so lofty that they might have skewed our view of just how special a player he still is even when he’s not scoring in triple digits. But his unique approach to the game and slow start this year hasn’t separated him from the pack in terms of the current team’s top tier.

And of course, Wyatt Johnston has become the crucial everything-guy, killing penalties, playing the most minutes, and shutting down opposing players while also finding ways to score. He has an argument for that “best player” title to be made, certainly.

As does Jake Oettinger on more than a few nights, though goalies are so hard to properly adjust for, given their outsized impact on the game. But he’s stolen more than a couple games for Dallas this year, and they know it. He’s been their best player a lot of times, whether or not you’d put him atop that list every time.

And don’t forget about Thomas Harley in this year in particular, when he’s stepped up and looked so good that nobody really doubted he deserved to play for Team Canada in February, once the East Coast remembered who he was. He’s genuinely continued to astound me with how excellently he makes both transition plays and defensive ones like shutting down Scheifele on a one-on-one in Game 1. Harley has great instincts, even if his usage this second-half and postseason is likely to prematurely age him into elibiiglty for a senior discount at IHOP.

Going further back, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin could each boast that “best player” title at different times, with John Klingberg occasionally being the lynchpin of the entire gameplan in his first five or six years in Dallas

And of course, Ben Bishop, Jake Oettinger, and even Kari Lehtonen in the bankruptcy years all took some time borrowing that “best player” title when it was up for grabs after Brad Richards left.

Even when there was some moderate consensus among the fanbase about the best player on this team, however, it was another thing to measure that player up against the rest of the league’s best players. You could say that players in Dallas were overlooked and underappreciated, but you cannot say that about Mikko Rantanen.

That’s all over with, for now and for years to come. Because in Mikko Rantanen, you don’t have to argue about whether he actually deserves the superlative titles, because he’s ending the argument with his play on the ice and shattering NHL records in the process.

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Beyond that, the Stars had another weapon: Pete Deboer’s deployment of Mikko Rantanen, which was itself a testament to their team depth. Because by double-shifting Rantanen on the fourth line where he scored his two even-strength goals, DeBoer was also able to put Rantanen with another top-line winger in Evgenii Dadonov, whom Rantanen pointed out during the intermission had scored 20 goals this season.

That’s how Rantanen got his first goal. Because the Stars’ fourth line is not your average fourth line, as Sam Steel showed with a fairly effortless zone entry, after which he got enough time to feed a cross over to a wide-open Dadonov, as you can see above.

Dadonov cranked the shot on net, because he’s got top-drawer offensive abilities, as Stars fans know. And while Hellebuyck got a lot of it, he did not get all of it. And Mikko Rantanen was there at the goalmouth to poke home his first tally, with that superb combination of intuition and ability that separates superstars from the merely great hockey players that populate most NHL fourth lines.

You’ll note Adam Lowry as an onlooker for that goal, which kind of puts the lie to the notion (for this goal) that Rantanen was on the fourth line to “get away from” great defensive players like Lowry. They were there for this one; they just couldn’t stop him.

Now, Lowry was hard-matched against the Hintz (Rantanen) line by Scott Arniel, and that meant Rantanen got away from them for his second goal. But for this first goal, Rantanen was simply better than the Jets’ top defense pairing and top checking line, as were the other members of the Stars’ “fourth” line. The depth up front, for this team, really is remarkable.

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The second goal was even more of a group effort, as all five players on the fourth line touched the puck in order before scoring.

First, Rantanen does some hard work along the boards to get the puck down low, where Steel collects it below the goal line, then hands off to Dadonov, who is swinging down to support.

Then Dadonov takes the puck into the corner, where he takes a pretty big hit that he knows is coming in order to get the puck back up to Lyubushkin at the point.

Luke Schenn hits hard, but Dadonov passes the puck where it needs to go just before the hit comes. And as you can see in the yellow circle below, it is well on its way.

Lyubushkin will catch the puck, ensuring that it stays in the zone before he quickly snaps it across to Harley.

The Stars’ defenseman gets the pass and does some cagey skating with Rantanen staring right at him, waiting. Harley will get the puck off his stick and past his defender at the point, and Rantanen does the rest, with Colin Miller nursing his nose after Rantanen probably got him with an elbow in a battle right before this to create some extra space, much like a wide receiver will battle for separation just short of incurring a penalty right before the ball arrives.

Rantanen goes from boxer to craftsman as he exhibits the delicate touch of an artist, sending an otherwise cupcake of a wrister fluttering wildly up and over Hellebuyck’s shoulder, into the top corner.

Fourth line? Maybe. But when the other four guys do their jobs perfectly, Rantanen is the best fifth wheel you could ask for. He overpowered Miller on the third defense pairing, and the Jets had Morgan Barron caught out there with Vilardi and Connor, which is not exactly a checking line.

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The penalty kill, man. They were outstanding tonight. Despite most of four power plays, Winnipeg only got a couple of looks below the circles, and two of those three by the net I think are from the same power play.

Sure, the Jets are missing Josh Morrissey, but the Stars are the last team that’s going to feel bad for a team missing its top defenseman. They’ve been singing that song for three months now, and they aren’t going to change verses just because Winnipeg finally got punched in the nose with the injury bug. The Stars are missing teeth, but they’re starting to bite harder than ever. I am stretching this analogy beyond the limits of wisdom, but it is late, or early.

Also, did you notice what the Stars did when Cody Ceci was in the penalty box? Yep, they just asked Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley to kill the whole danged thing, and they did—though Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz’s abortive attempts to rush down the ice rather than clearing it might not have helped. But honestly, I’m not sure either of Harley or Lindell was coming off the ice regardless.

That surprises me a bit, given how solid Lyubushkin was for much of the season on that top PK pairing. But I can see how having one of the best defensemen in the NHL and not using him on a crucial PK (which they all were) would feel like it comes with a lot of opportunity cost. And anyway, Harley wound up playing “only” 25:02, which is practically a night off for him in relative terms.

And speaking of big minutes, don’t miss the fact that Wyatt Johnston led all forwards in overall ice time tonight, despite all of Rantanen’s double-shifting at 5-on-5.

And even more surprisingly, despite Johnston’s being DeBoer’s ideal shutdown center against Nate MacKinnon last series, Scott Arniel consistently deployed the Scheifele trio against Johnston’s line. Of course, that line admittedly featured two completely different wingers in Robertson and Marchment, and perhaps that was the appeal, for Arniel. But the only time that line surrendered a goal was when the Hintz trio got caught on a change, with Johnston’s line getting tagged for a minus on Vilardi’s rush goal mere seconds after hopping on the ice, far behind the play.

All the same, the Scheifele trio was clearly the most dangerous unit for Winnipeg, as they should be. And the Stars know full well from the 82 games before the tournament that you can’t tempt fate by loading up that team over and over. But if this game was just a chance to ease Robertson in by giving him a more methodical center in Johnston rather than a speedster in Hintz, then Robertson’s performance tonight should ease any concerns about his place in the lineup, as Robertson was perfectly fine.

Mason Marchment was his typically eventful self—his penalty was sold a bit, but he’s the one who put the stick there to begin with—but his checking was quite dedicated, and you can see what makes him effective, if a little more exciting to watch than you typically want to see, in the defensive zone. The line might have been a makeshift one, but it wasn’t without its virtues.

And man, I really wanted Johnston to feed Robertson on that 2-on-1 on his off-wing, though. But shooting was probably the right call, given how the rush was being player.

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The Duchene line was also quite good, with Seguin once again looking sneaky effective and extremely responsible, if you don’t count Jamie Benn’s penalty and giveaway for a goal. That’s two games now where a Benn decision could have been the lead story in a bad result, only for things to work out all right in the end.

If Benn can be a tad more consistent on that line, I think the Stars will have something there, but how many times has that been said, right? The trio played well tonight outside of the goal against, but you’ll need to see some actual scoring from them soon, if only on the off-chance that Rantanen doesn’t keep scoring three points a night. As unlikely as that sounds, it’s bound to happen eventually. I think.

By the way, Hintz looked fabulous tonight, and I didn’t really mind his tussling with DeMelo during the power play. Everyone has said it, but how can playing with Rantanen not be a very, very good thing for Hintz? You’ll quickly tire of hearing Hintz shoehorned into comparisons to MacKinnon with his speedy skating or heavy shot, but it’s clear to me that Rantanen is fully comfortable in Dallas. Now it’s about unlocking the highest potential performance of everyone else. That starts with Hintz.

Also, Mikael Gralund was very reliable tonight. He can play with Rantanen and Hintz, or he can play on the penalty kill. Or he can play with Duchene, like he did after arriving here, or he can play…well, pretty much anywhere. I liked a lot of his decision-making tonight, including his slick saucer pass over the back of the net to set up Rantanen for that glorious near-post chance that Hellebuyck made a fine save on. And he’s almost a complementary player, on this team.

If the Stars are going to do something special, they’ll need that depth. And when they do, it will be ready and waiting, whichever line it’s on.

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By the way, the third defense pairing did quite well in sheltered minutes, again.

Faithful in little, faithful in much. And despite a likely shakeup to that third pairing with the (hopefully) upcoming return of Heiskanen in this series, I think that pairing has shown they deserve much more rope next season, if not in this current playoff run.

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I thought the Stars probably could have gotten called for another one or two penalties they got away with in this one, but there were also a couple of good no-calls on what looked like attemps to draw calls from Winnipeg, so it probably evened out.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in those conversations with the officiating series supervisor each round, when the respective teams air their grievances about what is going on, what hasn’t been called, and what shouldn’t have been called. I have no doubt it would be enlightening, at least in terms of generating empathy for how impossible a job it must be for NHL officials to catch everything that goes on in these games.

Still, one thing I have also heard is that there are lots of ongoing conversations outside of the penalty calls (or lack of them). So don’t discount the possibility of carryover in terms of players trying to draw calls in one game and then not getting them in another.

Then again, that didn’t quite seem to be how it worked in the Colorado series, so maybe there’s just so much noise around playoff time that it’s all the officials can do to try to call the game in front of them. In any case, if the Stars keep winning the special teams battles on whatever power plays are handed out, they’re going to be in very good shape.

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In watching the end of the St. Louis/Winnipeg series, I realized that Neal Pionk is much better than I have been giving him credit for, even in games against Dallas. He’s sneaky-strong, has great instincts, and is generally a nuisance. Him and Samberg on that top pairing are adequate replacements for what Josh Morrisey’s absence removes, but adequacy was not what Winnipeg needed on this night: they needing something superlative.

Unfortunately for Winnipeg, despite the top line playing over 22 minutes apiece (with nearly 24 minutes for Kyle Connor), they couldn’t get that special something outside of the turnover gift they got on the one shift. Dallas’s best player was better than all three of theirs. Join the club, folks.

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So, Dallas has won a Game 1, finally. But they didn’t do it by luck alone, finally getting the bounces Colorado got in the last Game 1. Sure, they did get a bounce on that third goal, but it was a bounce that also prevented a highly dangerous pass that might have been a goal anyway, so I think it’s fair to call that one earned. (I am the arbiter of fairness, remember.)

Miro Heiskanen still isn’t back, but if, even in his absence, the Stars can slay their Winnipeg demons—a team that really did have their number all season long, even in a late-season game with Rantanen—then who knows what the limits of this team are?

Then again, it’s good to remember last year, and how much confidence was around this team going into the third round, only to find that the group was kind of gassed after two brutal battles against Vegas and Colorado.

This round may be just as tought as either of those, or this year’s first round against Colorado—or hey, it might be the toughest of all of them, when all is said and done.

After all, you can’t keep loading up that power play with kicks at the can, whether Morrissey comes back in Game 2 or not. They’re simply too good to expect Dallas to continue humiliating that unit the way they did Colorado’s, and Dallas doesn’t have the luxury of home ice advantage should this series go the distance. Winnipeg is deeper than Colorado, even if they don’t have a Mackinnon or a Makar (or a Rantanen) to put a cape on. They have the team that literally finished atop the league. That was not an accident.

And besides, the Stars know better than anyone that just because a team loses Game 1 does not mean they are out of the series. It’s going to be very tempting for Dallas to be content with getting a split, which means you risk falling behind on home ice in Game 3, just like Colorado did. We all saw how that ended.

Winning Game 1 sure beats the alternative, though.