Game 1 AfterThoughts: Logan Stankoven Freshens up a Shaky Night as Stars Spoil Predators’ Revival

If this was Logan Stankoven’s audition for the top line, he couldn’t really have done any better. If this was the Stars’ audition to see if they were magically in midseason form, then maybe it would be best to cancel auditions for today and just come back Saturday.

Still and all, Dallas held on to take a 4-3 road win away from a motivated and heavily reinforced Nashville Predators squad, and that’s all you really need to care about, after one game.

As a quick aside, I’ll just say that I don’t love the ESPN broadcast, but that doesn’t extend to the broadcasters. AJ and Bob were perfectly solid, if not totally in sync all night, but the camera work and directorial decisions were very frustrating at times. This included showing the wrong replay multiple times, cutting back and forth weirdly or unexpectedly from shot to shot, and using weird camera tricks like the slow un-focusing effect that really only make sense in baseball, when you’re doing a tight shot on a player’s face or something between plays. In short, it felt like a hockey broadcast done by people who don’t normally do hockey broadcasts. That’s the price of success, I guess.

Early season hockey can be rough. Teams aren’t into a real rhythm yet, and systems and chemistry haven’t quite been reinforced through dozens of games’ worth of repetition. To a certain extent, every coach is just hoping their team can get away with their mistakes or get bailed out by their goalie for the first however many weeks it takes for everyone to settle down. One game is never a fair way to judge a team, and the first game especially so.

I’m always a bit skeptical to dig into metrics in any single game, anyway. Overall, they can tell you a story about momentum, but sometimes it’s more about weathering the environment you find yourself in than singlehandedly changing the temperature. So when you see that the Stars were outshot 36-20, or out-dueled in faceoffs two to one, you might presume they were getting skated out of the rink. That’s not really the case, though. Let’s look at where those shots were coming from at even-strength.

Yes, Nashville got the better of play, particularly in the second period after the Stars put up a lead and started sitting back a bit. But at even strength, it was far from a bloodbath, as the Stars actually did a fairly good job of keeping a lot of shots out of the critical areas, and the Predators did a good job missing the net on fully half of their best chances.

Now, for the less-fun part. Let’s take a look at the shot locations on special teams, where the Predators got six power plays to the Stars’ four:

As an old-timey plumber might say, “There’s your problem, right there.” Or at least, it could’ve been, if Oettinger hadn’t held Nashville to a single power play goal.

Dallas didn’t generate nearly enough with their own power play (which sounds familiar, alas), and they allowed Nashville to have way too many kicks at the can, though that’s hardly unusual at the start of the season, when penalties always tend to be a tick higher, and when players in general are still hard-wiring their “don’t do that” commands. Just ask someone like Thomas Harley about the too many men penalty Dallas took after he jumped on the ice for Heiskanen on a change, only for the puck to go right to Heiskanen, who played it with Harley sheepishly trying to rewind time.

There were plenty of “you oughta know better” penalties on both teams, including a Too Much Mans call on Nashville as well. But that’s what you get at the start of the year, especially when teams tend not to play anything approximating a full NHL lineup until maybe the final game of the preseason, if at all. Everyone knows there’s going to be some easing in happening, and just hope you have enough time to do it. That’s why a slow start is so disastrous, though. As we all remember from 2019, everyone gets really antsy if that settling down never starts to happen. It forces coaches to start making changes before they can be certain of the root causes of the issues, and then everyone is unhappy and adjustments are happening and lines are scrambled, and you may end up right back where you started after it’s too late to catch the pack.

Nasvhille is one of the oldest teams in the NHL (3rd-oldest per Elite Prospects). And before Juuse Saros missed tonight’s game, they would’ve had something like a full complement of players, which older teams probably can’t bank on for most of the season. So for them to get 12 minutes of power plays and multiple Grade-A chances only to hit five posts and not even out-duel Dallas on the power play has to feel like a missed opportunity. I can’t imagine Dallas is going to be much more vulnerable than they were tonight, even if the even-strength battle really wasn’t all that lopsided.

On the flip side, Dallas isn’t going to feel bad at all about taking this win. Considering it was fueled by sort-of secondary scoring at even-strength, which is to say two goals from Marchment and three assists from Stankoven playing on the top line, this is a recipe for stealing more than one game. It’s nice when players other than your goaltender can steal games for you, although Jake Oettinger was quite good in this one, too.

All right, let’s get to some of the action in detail.

1st Period

Filip Forsberg hit the corner of the crossbar from distance with a puck up on edge early in the game, and that should’ve been the “wakey wakey!” moment for Dallas. Portents, they are all around us.

Mason Marchment started this game with a loose pass that got turned the other way, then followed it up with a rough penalty to negate a rush by his line. You wouldn’t have though he’s be one of the most important contributors for Dallas at that point, but that just goes to show that things aren’t always portentous in retrospect. On the penalty, for what it’s worth, I believe Marchment is trying to skate just behind Josi as Seguin carries the puck up the ice for a potential 3-on-2 rush. Marchment buzzing Josi right behind him might make it tough for him to turn as Seguin goes wide, but instead, Marchment makes direct contact with the Preds defenseman to take him down, and it’s an easy interference call.

The chaos started coming after that, asBrady Skjei was foiled by Oettinger at one end on a great chance, only for Roope Hintz to miss the net on a breakaway at the other. But because this wasn’t the playoffs, the Stars would have many, many more chances.

Oskar Bäck had a quiet night, but in a good way for his NHL debut, I think. He went 1-for-4 on the faceoff dot, but consider the only Dallas Stars player to even hit 50% was Jamie Benn with a 4-for-8 night, you can’t be too upset. Ryan O’Reilly and Colton Sissons were both dominant at around 70%, so you take your lumps and move on. However, Bäck kept things pretty quiet during his 9:04 of ice time, and that’s the kind of uneventful fourth-line centering they were hoping to get from him.

The teams exchanged power plays in the first, but without anyone converting. Oettinger did have a fantastic save on Stamkos after a 2-on-1 developed, reading the pass well enough to get over and stay big, absorbing the shot without trouble.

Matt Dumba got high-sticked for the third Stars power play of the period, but he also took two penalties later, and I’m wondering if this just might end up being The Matt Dumba Experience. If it ends with a crucial shot block and a victory, I think the Stars will be happy about it.

Five of the seven goals were scored in the second period, but the Stars got the bulk of them, thanks to Logan Stankoven and Mason Marchment coming up huge. You may recall that last year, Dallas had secondary and even tertiary scoring out the wazoo (which is where scoring comes out when you have a lot of it, per Science). This year, even with Joe Pavelski, the Stars look deep enough to score up and down the lineup again, as we saw tonight.

First, Logan Stakoven rescued a just-missed breakaway pass, then he curls behind the net and feeds Roope Hintz, who rips it past Scott Wedgewood’s shoulder for the lead. It’s a smart and patient play by Stankoven, who just has the torque to get around corners and find passing lanes that so many players don’t. Also, what a shot by Roope Hintz, eh?

Top line hot! Top line hot! #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/xyroYyIdZV

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 11, 2024

But the top line wasn’t done on that shift, as they scored an eerily similar goal right after the next faceoff, with Hintz this time catching a puck at the far blue line, then turning to protect the puck and feed Robertson, who also found Wedgewood hard to hit. 2-0 Dallas, and Stankoven had two assists on the same shift. That’s not bad, I think. Is that good, even? I would call it very good, even though it’s not the seventh game and I’m not resting.

DALLAS STARS #NHLFaceOff

Two quick ones for the @DallasStars!

: @ESPNPlus https://t.co/S5tPrXCygm pic.twitter.com/kx09SNj45F

— NHL (@NHL) October 11, 2024

Nasvhille punched back at last, when Filip Forsberg found space in the low slot and released a no-chance shot past Oettinger. However, it was the last time Forseberg would win that battle, as Oettinger foiled him multiple times from then on. But yeah, I’m afraid Forsberg is gonna score from that spot, if you let him try.

Some good news: Scoresberg is back pic.twitter.com/5RgDHZPxpy

— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) October 11, 2024

The power play finally figured it out for Dallas though, after a nice entry by (guess who) Stankoven to reach the puck forward in the space between the defender’s stick and gain the line. He then skates (hockey term) and hands off to Duchene, who I believe attempted to give it right back in the slot. But Stankoven fortunately missed it (or lets it go?) and Marchment collected it and found the same spot over Wedgewood’s shoulder that Hintz did earlier in the period.

Mush in Smashville. Likely goal for him to score.#TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/MU57XmCdQ3

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 11, 2024

Nashville really started leaning on Dallas in the latter part of the second period, and I think we’re looking at a very different result if they had made it 3-2. But the Stars were fortunate enough to have Jake Oettinger standing firm, which is to say for Nashville to miss the net more than once. Gustav Nyquist, for instance, got in behind the defense only to send his shot sailing over the top of the net, bailing out the Stars, and that’s the sort of break you need when the ice is starting to tilt.

But there’s only one Mo in Dallas, so the Stars ignored the momentum Nasvhille was trying to summon, as (guess who) Marchment surprised Wedgewood with a wrist shot from the right circle that sneaked under his former teammate’s arm. Marchment was looking off the goaltender (as NHL shooters so often do), but that’s still one most goalies would like to have. But Marchment also does have a wristers commensurate with his lanky frame, which is to say it’s deadly when the sights are set.

FEELIN' MUSHY!#TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/Ysjkq3rFML

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) October 11, 2024

Matt Dumba ended the second peeriod by taking a second penalty for high-sticking, but although Nashville had one last chance to get back into the game before the end of the middle frame, they ended up waiting until the third period to start their comeback effort. 4:37 into the third, Tommy Novak got behind the defense (theme of the night, there). How did he do that? Well, to put it bluntly, the two defensemen got into a pinching competition, which they both ended up losing.

Nashville goal!

Scored by Tommy Novak with 15:23 remaining in the 3rd period.

Assisted by Luke Evangelista and Filip Forsberg.

Nashville: 2
Dallas: 4#DALvsNSH #Smashville #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/cjX4U2IL0x

— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 11, 2024

You can see Thomas Harley up at the offensive blue line, and you can unfortunately see Ilya Lyubushkin stepping up at the next blue line, which meant there was nobody left once Luke Evangelista miraculously got the puck behind everyone, and Novak collected it, then bore down on Oettinger and flipped it past him with ease.

But like Forsberg, that would be the last time Oettinger let Novak beat him, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say that would be the last time Novak let Novak beat Oettinger. Novak missed a sure-thing dunk on the power play midway through the third, and that’s not even close to doing it justice. He somehow received a pass while standing in the crease with Oettinger out of it, then put the puck in between Oettinger and the post, glancing off the elbow on its way out. Genuinely, it was impressive to see, and I’m sure Novak will be seeing it all night. Here are two stills that begin to give you some idea of what happened, or you can watch starting at 7:40 on the condensed game highlights here.

It was that kind of night for Nashville. Gus Nyquist had another great chance after toe-dragging around Tyler Seguin to get space in the slot, only for Oettinger’s glove to shut things down with just under five minutes to go.

From there, Dallas went into hatches-battening mode. Matt Duchene laid a nice hit on Ryan O’Reilly behind the net late in the third, but O’Reilly was apparently unfazed, as he got right back onto the ice and scored the Predator’s third goal with the extra attacker on the ice. It’s a tough play for Ilya Lyubushkin, who knew that Nyquist was alone on the back door after three Stars skaters get caught outside the puck (see below). So Lyubushkin began to back up to cover the most dangerous pass, only for O’Reilly to take the vacated ice and rip a shot into the far corner to make it 4-3 with 90 seconds to go.

Nashville goal!

Scored by Ryan O'Reilly with 01:35 remaining in the 3rd period.

Assisted by Jonathan Marchessault and Filip Forsberg.

Nashville: 3
Dallas: 4#DALvsNSH #Smashville #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/ajwjOXBLWm

— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 11, 2024

O’Reilly almost scored a second 6-on-5 goal, as he would put another puck off the iron behind Oettinger, then Stamkos would follow up with a post of his own, but the Stars would survive both close calls thanks to a shot block from Matt Dumba to send the puck out of play and give them a breather before the final faceoff, and the puck was subsequently sent down the ice to seal the first Stars’ victory of the year.

***

I don’t have too many other thoughts after just one game. Nils Lundkvist had a good moment of physicality in front of the net, winning a battle with Cole Smith and getting into a tussle afterwards. The Stars’ special teams look a bit rusty, as you’d expect, but the power play will probably want to start clicking before too long, especially if theyr’e going to keep handing out penalties like early Hallowe’en candy.

Stankoven really did look something else, though, and that’s not nothing when you consider he was playing beside players who have significant size, experience, and credentials on him. It’s hard to remember just how spoiled Dallas is right now with all of the young talent they have, and that’s without Mavrik Bourque even playing in this one. But genuinely, I think any one of Robertson, Stankoven, Harley, or Johnston would be the face of a bunch of other team’s marketing campaigns. But on this team, they’re just one of a huge swath of really talented players.

Finally, I went down a rabbit hole about Jim Nill the other day when I discovered that one of my long-winded series was still up on the new DBD site. Click here to check out this piece from early 2016 if you’re bored, as it has links to the preceding three parts.

This was a project to look at every move Jim Nill had made (well, almost every move) during his first few years in the organization. It was already pretty impressive, but when you look at his list of accomplishments now, it’s nearly impossible to believe. The trades aren’t always steals this decade, but they still tend to be far better than most GMs, as with the Chris Tanev and Mats Zuccarello deals. The drafting has done the impossible, completely reversing philosophical course—and what team does this under the same administrations?—while hitting on tons of overlooked talents who would go way higher in re-drafts, such as Robertson, Johnston, and Stankoven.

Oettinger has turned into a goalie you can build a team around, and so many of the other decisions are working out. There are some flubs out there that Nill would readily admit, I’m sure, but trades like a first-rounder for Lundkvist almost provide reassurance, given they signal a lack of complacency. Nill does not think for a moment that his work is done, and it’s exciting to see how good a team even an unfinished product like this one can be.

It’s going to be an interesting year, I think.