Examining All the Various Jason Robertson Scenarios That Could Happen in the Week before the Draft (or after It)

Or even, *gasp*, at the draft itself?

Some moves have already happened around the NHL, even if they haven’t exactly been titanic ones. In just the last couple of days, the Maple Leafs traded Joseph Woll to Philadelphia, the Avalanche shipped out Ross Colton, and the Sharks even went out and found a way to get Michael Kesselring from Buffalo in exchange for sliding back a few spots in the first round.

The first two moves are likely cap-related, while the third one profiles more as the sort of thing a team does when they already have the second overall pick to begin with. But moves they are indeed, and they won’t be the last ones we’ll see.

What we don’t know is whether the Dallas Stars will make moves of their own. But I do still think we’re likely to see at least some kind of action in Dallas before the draft, and that’s for a couple of specific reasons.

The most obvious such reason is the Jason Robertson situation, which continues to be the giant hub around which all the Stars’ other offseason spokes must turn. If Robertson isn’t signed long-term in the next week or so, then he’s due a qualifying offer of $9.3 million by June 29 at the latest. (Fellow RFAs Arttu Hyry and Mavrik Bourque are likewise up for qualifying offers, albeit at numbers in the $1 million range.)

Once a team makes their qualifying offer, the player then has about a week (until the afternoon of July 5, per Puckpedia) to consider whether to file for arbitration (or to sign an offer sheet, if the player receives one during that intervening time).

It’s anyone’s guess whether a team out there is prepared to employ a handsome offer sheet for Robertson. Such moves are certainly rare, and the price for Robertson would require a team to forfeit their next four first-round picks, starting in 2027. It’s not likely, because offer sheets never are, but it’s also not impossible. Robertson is young, and he can score goals like few other players in the league. He just had the best season of any left wing in hockey, and he could be available in an exceptionally thin free agent market. If you’re Dallas, you’d be foolish not to at least check on his possible value, should an extension not be possible, and to see whether that value could be even greater in trade than four successive first-rounders.

I should note that there is precedent for a huge offer sheet to be signed. Nashville’s Shea Weber signed just such an offer sheet in 2012 from the Flyers (in the same summer that Ryan Suter also bailed on the Predators to join Zach Parise in Minnesota). The deal would have seen Philly losing four first-rounders in exchange for getting Weber, but Nashville ended up matching the offer sheet and keeping Weber—at least for a few years, until they traded him on the wildest offseason day of 2016 (and maybe ever) for P.K. Subban. Dallas most likely would not be able to match any massive offer sheet, given their cap situation.

Offer sheets are far from the most likely scenario. Offer sheets are rare. Have I said that enough? They’re like, super duper rare, even if the possibility of them is always fascinating to contemplate. Nobody here is trying to sell the idea that offer sheets aren’t rare. I can’t emphasize that enough.