The Stars might have missed Nils Lundkvist more than people realize. He had made real strides before getting injured and he was more of a puck moving defenseman to complement a guy like Esa Lindell.
That pairing was very interesting. They allowed more shots on goal and expected goals overall than they generated, but they allowed *fewer* scoring chances, high-danger shots, and actual goals than they generated.
The Ceci-Lindell pairing (regular season) played about the same minutes as Lindell-Lundkvist, and that pairing was also positive in actual goals. But they were way further underwater in all underlying categories, and those all came back to bite the Lindell-Ceci pairing in the third round (though who knows if Lundkvist would have handled Edmonton any better).
This IS interesting. I wonder if the analytics become more relevant in the playoffs when you are playing the better teams who do a better job of executing or preventing quality scoring chances. Expected goals is just a statistical average. Analysis of averages always leads to average analysis. Better than Corsi, but not by a whole lot in my opinion. But the frequency of quality and high danger chances goes more to actual skill and judgment (aka "hockey sense") -- on both ends. To win at this stage of the playoffs, you have to make the fewest mistakes (penalties, allowing odd man rushes, defensive zone breakdowns) and better exploit the ones that the other team makes. This is where the Stars finally broke down in the playoffs.
Also, the Stars stats with these defense pairs on the ice say something about the quality of the Stars goaltending, most of it very good. But don't get me started on THAT topic. 😂
I realize I do not have the same information the team has, but unless Benn was dealing with an injury, I have a hard time with him being back making sense. Seems hard for your C to play the role he played toward end of season and playoffs.
Everything we've seen and heard suggests it really is up to Benn at this point, and he said he's planning to prepare to play. But the contract negotiation will probably have some really frank talks about role and captaincy and transitioning that mightbe the real determining factor in his decision.
A behind the scenes question, how is it determined which players are interviewed in the press conference format? Team decision or does the media submit requests? Thank you!
Great question. To the best of my understanding, the team made every player available that was requested on end-of-year media day this year. If multiple people requested the same player, it was probably more time-effective to have them do a full-on conference.
If only one or two reporters requested a player, then that media member would just speak to that player individually outside of the interview/conference room.
Robert, I’m curious what you make of Duchene’s comment on contract security? He’s 34yo so understandably looking for as much term as he can get. But both Robo and Harley are RFA’s after next season, so committing dollars beyond one season for Duchene looks really difficult. Also, I believe Nashville pay stops after next season so he’s likely looking for more $ in ‘26-‘27. Going to be a tough deal I think.
I have a bigger piece coming out Monday morning looking at all the interviews from Saturday, but short version: His market value is much bigger than a one-year deal, and it could cost him a lot of money if he suffered a freak injury or something and didn't have a multi-year deal. So my hunch is that he might still be okay with with a below-market AAV, but he'd want more term in exchange (say three years) to do it. Which he's earned, in fairness.
This is why I enjoy paying for your content and why I recommend every Stars fan should pay for it. While we can get all get the major video interviews via the Stars themselves, you bring us Hintz and Nils perspectives, you dig deep and I appreciate that.
Nils has been an interesting follow because he was traded for because Harley wasn’t ready in training camp. But Nils needed more seasoning (but couldn’t be sent to Austin) and he has worked hard at it, and was producing well this year.
Also I chuckled at the pedantic reader comment. Kinda felt it was directed towards some reader that pointed out
the Monty firing comment today. 😂. But I agreed with your sentiment.
I promise I wasn't sniping at any particular reader! I genuinely do appreciate correction in the interest of accuracy. In this case, I decided that it was better to keep the player's original quote about Johnston's experience and explain why I left the inaccuracy in, rather than editing it myself. I think that tells the reader a tiny bit more about what Lundkvist was trying to communicate (how much a veteran Johnston is at a young age) than the reader would get if I edited it. There's a big-picture accuracy that trumps the smaller one, in this case. At least, that's how I felt about it.
The Stars might have missed Nils Lundkvist more than people realize. He had made real strides before getting injured and he was more of a puck moving defenseman to complement a guy like Esa Lindell.
That pairing was very interesting. They allowed more shots on goal and expected goals overall than they generated, but they allowed *fewer* scoring chances, high-danger shots, and actual goals than they generated.
The Ceci-Lindell pairing (regular season) played about the same minutes as Lindell-Lundkvist, and that pairing was also positive in actual goals. But they were way further underwater in all underlying categories, and those all came back to bite the Lindell-Ceci pairing in the third round (though who knows if Lundkvist would have handled Edmonton any better).
This IS interesting. I wonder if the analytics become more relevant in the playoffs when you are playing the better teams who do a better job of executing or preventing quality scoring chances. Expected goals is just a statistical average. Analysis of averages always leads to average analysis. Better than Corsi, but not by a whole lot in my opinion. But the frequency of quality and high danger chances goes more to actual skill and judgment (aka "hockey sense") -- on both ends. To win at this stage of the playoffs, you have to make the fewest mistakes (penalties, allowing odd man rushes, defensive zone breakdowns) and better exploit the ones that the other team makes. This is where the Stars finally broke down in the playoffs.
Also, the Stars stats with these defense pairs on the ice say something about the quality of the Stars goaltending, most of it very good. But don't get me started on THAT topic. 😂
The most important part of your reply is “the frequency of high danger scoring chances”.
Well said.
Anxious to see who they bring-in to coach the Stars, as it could affect how the team plays in front of Jake.
I realize I do not have the same information the team has, but unless Benn was dealing with an injury, I have a hard time with him being back making sense. Seems hard for your C to play the role he played toward end of season and playoffs.
Everything we've seen and heard suggests it really is up to Benn at this point, and he said he's planning to prepare to play. But the contract negotiation will probably have some really frank talks about role and captaincy and transitioning that mightbe the real determining factor in his decision.
A behind the scenes question, how is it determined which players are interviewed in the press conference format? Team decision or does the media submit requests? Thank you!
Great question. To the best of my understanding, the team made every player available that was requested on end-of-year media day this year. If multiple people requested the same player, it was probably more time-effective to have them do a full-on conference.
If only one or two reporters requested a player, then that media member would just speak to that player individually outside of the interview/conference room.
Love this insight. Thank you.
Thanks!
Robert, I’m curious what you make of Duchene’s comment on contract security? He’s 34yo so understandably looking for as much term as he can get. But both Robo and Harley are RFA’s after next season, so committing dollars beyond one season for Duchene looks really difficult. Also, I believe Nashville pay stops after next season so he’s likely looking for more $ in ‘26-‘27. Going to be a tough deal I think.
I have a bigger piece coming out Monday morning looking at all the interviews from Saturday, but short version: His market value is much bigger than a one-year deal, and it could cost him a lot of money if he suffered a freak injury or something and didn't have a multi-year deal. So my hunch is that he might still be okay with with a below-market AAV, but he'd want more term in exchange (say three years) to do it. Which he's earned, in fairness.
Yup, makes sense. I hope they can work something out. Thanks!
This is why I enjoy paying for your content and why I recommend every Stars fan should pay for it. While we can get all get the major video interviews via the Stars themselves, you bring us Hintz and Nils perspectives, you dig deep and I appreciate that.
Nils has been an interesting follow because he was traded for because Harley wasn’t ready in training camp. But Nils needed more seasoning (but couldn’t be sent to Austin) and he has worked hard at it, and was producing well this year.
Also I chuckled at the pedantic reader comment. Kinda felt it was directed towards some reader that pointed out
the Monty firing comment today. 😂. But I agreed with your sentiment.
I promise I wasn't sniping at any particular reader! I genuinely do appreciate correction in the interest of accuracy. In this case, I decided that it was better to keep the player's original quote about Johnston's experience and explain why I left the inaccuracy in, rather than editing it myself. I think that tells the reader a tiny bit more about what Lundkvist was trying to communicate (how much a veteran Johnston is at a young age) than the reader would get if I edited it. There's a big-picture accuracy that trumps the smaller one, in this case. At least, that's how I felt about it.
Footnotes matter.
4-55
23-6
5-28
LFG!!